Let's Go Tribe!: FanPosts

Hector Rondon; international superstar?

Avindian — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:47:31 -0000

According to ESPN, a pitcher named Hector Rondon will be starting for the World's future team, and he's from Cleveland's system. He's in Class A+ Kinston right now. His line from Baseball Reference suggests nothing special, but he does show positive signs of development (although his K/BB seems to be slipping a touch, never a good sign). Have any of you folks heard of him? BR doesn't do ERA+ for minor leaguers, and I'm not sure what kind of Park Factor we have in Kinston (although I'd heard, in general, the Carolina league is a pitcher's league).

2009 Most Pressing Needs?

ShawnK — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:03:18 -0000

Unless we can put together a Colorado Rockie-esque 2007 winning streak, we have moved into the unfortunate "Take Stock, Move Inventory, and Reload" phase of the 2008 season.

I have seen a lot of chatter on this site about trading for sluggers to improve the offense in 2009 (Matt LaPorta is my favorite of these, but perhaps more of a 2010 fix), but there has not been, or I have missed, any discussion about what I think might be the most pressing need of the 2009 season and beyond: a dominant closer.

Looking at the first 84 games of this year, we have converted 14 of 27 save opportunities. If we had a decent closer (assume an 80% save rate), we would have already won 8 more games this year, and would find ourselves 4 games out of first.

In all fairness, Borowski does have an 80% career save rate, and he has not been given many opportunites to save games in the past month. However, it appears his age is finally getting the better of him as his ERA and arm have begun to give out.

So what's the arm-chair GM move to make ? Go for a closer or go for a bat? Or just go for value and hope for the best?

My dream scenario is to get both by trading CC plus a reliever to Milwaukee for:

AA Matt LaPorta: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20LaPorta&pos=RF&sid=t559&t=p_pbp&pid=453181

AAA Luis Pena: http://www.nashvillesounds.com/clubhouse/Default.asp?playerId=204

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next few weeks.

Why the season is not finished

APV — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 13:56:29 -0000

Fat lady. Songs. Door. Ass. Toast. We’re done for. The 2008 Cleveland Indians season is done. And it is a colossal failure. As of this morning, the Indians are 10 games below .500 at 37-47, 11.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central, and in last place in the division behind the decades-long slumping Kansas City Royals. The good people at Baseball Prospectus have the Indians chances of making the playoffs (PECOTA-adjusted) at less than 1%. The cool people at Coolstandings.com have the Tribe’s playoff chances at a slightly cooler 2.5%. The Indians captain, Victor Martinez, is on the DL indefinitely. Their fearsome DH has been relegated to a similar status by a bum shoulder and a nasty case of "being very un-dude". Their hangover inducing, ice-cold young pitcher is also out. And their reliable, innings-eating sinkerball machine has been sunk off the coast of TJ. The Indians season is done like a late-night frozen pizza left in the oven overnight after you passed out on the couch watching re-runs of Man vs. Wild on Discovery. Pack up your bags and go home.

But is it really? Is it over? No. Every season begins with the goal of winning the World Series. For the last 60 years that is what the Indians have tried, and failed, to do every year. This year is no different. The 2008 Indians will not be World Champions. But that goal of winning a World Series does not exist as a singular monolith separate from the actions of those events and people which surround it. It is in actuality a product of those events and people. In baseball terms, this is the stuff of player performance, development, coaching, and organizational decisions. And while the World Series is a convenient threshold denoting the end of one season and ushering in the beginning of another season, all of those things which go into a World Series are not so easily compartmentalized. Players’ abilities are continuous variables, measured out in discrete plate appearances and games, but constantly changing in processes of growth and decline. Likewise, an organization is a dynamic system, with players entering, leaving, underperforming, and exceeding expectations. And the performances of one season bleed into the next. The games played in Cleveland, and Buffalo, and Akron, and even all the way down in Winter Haven will have some impact on the organization going into next season and beyond. They will help decide the fates of all the moving parts which make up the Indians organization.

I came of age as an Indians fan in the late 80s and early 90s, just in time to catch a decade of stunning major league baseball in Cleveland. But I did not begin to truly appreciate baseball on more than a season-to-season basis until 2002, when it became clear the run of fantastic teams in Cleveland was coming to an end. And it was then that I became aware of the true depth of being a baseball fan. That the success of players was not a given. That in order to really appreciate the players on the field in Cleveland, it helped to have a sense of where they had come from and how they had gotten there. What decisions had been made to make them part of the current set of players striving for the goal of World Series glory?

And that is where the organization stands now. Obviously we are on the brink of changes, both large and small, which will go a long way in determining who we have and what chances we have at the 2009 World Series and beyond. And as a fan, that means that while the 2008 season has ended, the 2009 season has begun. We are now beginning a 78-game, late Summer, pre-Spring Training in which the performances of players across the organization will be tracked in order to determine what role and future they have with the Tribe. The ability of players will continue to change as improvements are made, strength is gained, pitch recognition improves, or age begins to sap away at these abilities.

And baseball will be played. In Cleveland. In Buffalo. In Akron. In Kinston. In Eastlake. In Mahoning Valley. In Winter Haven. Even in the Dominican. Players will take the field, the dirt will be groomed and watered down, someone will yell out "hot dogs!" while someone else yells "cold beer!". Fireworks will get shot off. Kids will laugh and smile. And games will be won and games will be lost. But baseball will still be played because the season of baseball never ends.

Dallas McPherson

volapuk — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:46:35 -0000

When Casey Blake is traded in the mini fire sale about to occur, can we please call the Marlins and inquire on what we need to get Dallas McPherson. The guy is rotting AAA batting over 300 and hitting 29 HRs. Since Marte apparently will never approach 100 AB this season, can we start him the net 70-75 games and see if he can produce at the ML level. Shhh...I know Hodges is on his way, but when was the last time the Tribe rushed someone up.

July 2008 Indians schedule wallpaper

thejamootz — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 19:31:22 -0000

It's that time again. This month's calendar will help you count down the days until the Tribe officially raises the white flag and ships C.C. Sabathia (and Paul Byrd, if someone's really desperate) to the highest bidder. Exciting times to be an Indians fan.

You'll notice that the July 19th game in Seattle isn't televised. That's due to Fox's national blackout on Saturday afternoon and their lack of interest in televising a game between the teams with the two worst records in the league.

Also, four non-All Star Break days off scheduled. Including the ASB, that's seven days off this month. I can't remember the Indians ever having a month with less scheduled games.

A Minor Weekend 6/27-6/29

APV — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 19:54:42 -0000

While the Indians continued to show just enough to not occupy last place all by themselves, the Indians minor league teams actually had a pretty nice weekend. A brief recap of some of the highlights:

Buffalo 2, Scranton 1

Buffalo 3, Scranton 0

Buffalo 7, Scranton 5

Buffalo swept the first 3 games of a 4-game set with Scranton. Jordan Brown, who has been decidedly mediocre so far in Buffalo, had a strong weekend, going 4-7 with a 2B, 3B, HR and BB. He's had multiple hits in four of the last five games, including 2 HRs, raising his season total to 3. JAAAAson Cooper also had a big weekend, going 6-9 with 2 2Bs, a HR, and 2 BBs. Asdrubal has cooled off somewhat, but did hit a 3B while picking up two walks in the series. On the mound, Tom Mastny pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in two outings, walking 2 and K'ing 2. Juan Rincon made his debut yesterday, pitching a scoreless frame in the Bisons victory.

Akron 16, Reading 6

Akron 2, Reading 7

Akron 7, Reading 6

Akron took two of three from Reading. Everyone remember where you stuck your Trevor Crowe bandwagon?....it might just be time to start thinking about it. Crowe's not particularly young, has been injury prone, and has a very questionable performance record. But he's gotten a lot of attention and is currently going nuclear. Over the weekend he went 5-12 with a 2B, 3B, 2 HRs, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. Crowe's gone through hot stretches in the past, but they've mostly been marked by lots of singles. Over his past 10 games, Crowe has hit 4 HRs while putting up a .512 BA. In the 25 games he's played in June, his line is .400/.472/.629. That's still a small sample of games, but if Crowe could somehow turn back into a high-OBP, gap power, speedy guy...that could look mighty good in front of Sizemore in the Indians lineup...(oh prospects, why must I fall for you every time?). Bronson Sardinha (5-12, 2B, 2BBs) and Jose Constanza (7-12, 2B, BB), who are actually about the same age as Crowe, also had big weekends. JD Martin had the best pitching performance, throwing 2.2 innings of scoreless relief on Sunday while striking out 3. Martin actually has not allowed an earned run across his last 7 outings, covering 15.1 innings with 20Ks and only 4BBs.

Kinston 10, Frederick 1

Kinston 3, Frederick 0

Kinston 6, Potomac 1

Kinston joined Buffalo in winning all three of its games. The big offensive performance on Friday night was powered by Beau Mills, who went 3-4 with 2 HRs (11) and a walk. Jason Denham (5-11, 2 2Bs, BB, SB) and Nieman Romero (6-10, 2B, 2 BBs) were the other big offensive performers. Most of the success was pitching driven, though. Josh Tomlin (6IP,1H,0R,0BB,5K) and Hector Rondon (6IP,2H,1R,3BB,6K) carried Kinston to two of the three victories. A combination of reliever pitched 5 innings of 2-hit, 0-run ball in Kinston's other victory.

Lake County 6, Lakewood 2

Lake County 4, Hagerstown 6

Lake County 3, Hagerstown 4

Lake County wasn't as successful as its other full-season cousins, losing 2 out of 3 in close games. As always this season, the story in Lake County is all about pitching. Kelvin De La Cruz (5.2 IP, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 7K) and Ryan Miller (6IP, 2H 0R, 3BB, 4K) dominated their respective starts. Chris Archer '(4IP, 3ER, 5BB, 5K), after more success of late, was done in by his on-going control problems this time around.

Rick Sutcliffe?

SuddenSam — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 02:59:38 -0000

I realize Bartolomania is sweeping LGT. But I wonder if a better model for the Sabathia situation may be the Rick Sutcliffe trade of 1984 Mainly, of course, there is the issue of contraction, which immediately makes the Colon trade non-replicable. But I see some other similarities.

For one, Sutcliffe was also in his walk year (he re-signed with the Cubs after the season) and he was about the same age as CC (27, about to turn 28 at the time of the trade).

Also, and this could be significant, Sutcliffe departed the Tribe as part of a package. And I don't mean with Tim Drew. George Frazier, despite the infamy imposed on him in the 1981 World Series, was a pretty decent reliever. And Ron Hassey was a productive player everywhere he went in his long career. I have a feeling that the best CC deals out there could involve a larger package, if for no other reason than to protect the acquiring team if CC bolts.

Finally, the Indians were not a bad team in 1984, or at least they had a nucleus of solid players and some prospects on the brink. After all, the Indian Uprising was right around the corner. It wasn't a blow-up situation like 2002. And this can be seen in the incoming players. Sutcliffe, et. al. didn't bring in prospects that were due to blossom 2-4 years later. Mel Hall was already a regular in the majors. Carter had gotten some playing time and would become a regular in 1985 and a star a year later. I think that's what we're looking for now, a chance to cash in on our nucleus in 2009-2010, rather than an attempt to reload for 2011 and beyond.

I'm not very good at putting together mock trades. But my conjecture is that we're looking less at Sizemore-Lee-Phillips and more at something along the lines of Hall-Carter. And it will be for CC plus somebody and somebody else. (Hassey notwithstanding, I don't think Shoppach is going anywhere.)

When the trade is done, we should know what Shap really thinks of this team. If we get deep prospects, that means he has given up on the core and we can expect to see Peralta and Garko and Gutz and the like heading out of town. If he brings in players like Hall and Carter (circa 1984), then he is still committed to the near future.

My Friend Sal

AcmeHardball — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 20:46:23 -0000

I'm probably setting myself up for a bit of good-natured ridicule, but I thought I'd introduce myself and speak out in favor of a friend of mine. Sal Fasano.

To be honest, some of the comments I've seen here are very much like the ones I've read wherever he's gone. Not the AAA clubs of course, for they're often glad to have him...but whether it's the Rockies, the Orioles, The Yankees or even now the Tribe...there's no getting around the usual mockery. Hey, everyone's entitled to their opinion and god knows Sal's not headed for Cooperstown. His penchent for facial hair has prompted Moustache Night, in Syracuse and a remarkable photoshop job by the scoreboard folks at Yankee Stadium. He's fully aware that more people know him for his Fu Manchu than how he calls a game.

I've known Sal since High School. I've followed his career as any friend would, and catch his games when I can. When he joins a new team I tend to look at blogs like this to see how he's accepted and unfortunately it's clear he's come to your team at a very difficult time. By no means does a guy who's backing up the backup catcher hold any allusions of turning things around for his new team, but believe me when I say that you have a guy on your bench who will give everything he's got to make the Indians a winner on every given day.

Sal is not out there collecting a paycheck because he' thinks he's entitled to one. He understands how very few men ever get to play at the major league level and understands that his role is unique. As notorious or humorous as his reputation may be among these blogs, there's a reputation among general managers and other players that continues to bring him back to the Show when it looks like he's forever exiled to Syracuse or Durham. Pitchers love having Sal behind the plate and his value will probably find a more suitable venue as a coach in the years ahead.

Listen, I don't mean to rain on the parade. I enjoy the stuff about Sal as much as anyone. (With some clubs, he's achieved Chuck Norris heroics), but I felt inclined to say something because I know that he's going to be here for a few weeks....and I felt he could use someone getting his back.

One last thing. The stories about Sal being a regular guy off the field are far from spin. I have no doubt that if you all met Sal over a pizza or in the stands of a football game you'd come away really liking the guy.

He's grateful to be an Indian and he'll bust his ass for you guys.

Thanks,

Acme Hardball

Jayson Stark's Rumblings/Grumblings

Maverick05 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 19:31:24 -0000

Indians rumors of the week: Seems as if the only Indians anyone ever talks about hitting the market next month are Sabathia and Paul Byrd. But one NL executive says the Indians have also let teams know they would talk about several of their bullpen arms -- starting with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez -- and enigmatic 25-year-old outfielder Franklin Gutierrez.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

Anyone think there is some truth to this? if so, thoughts?

Let Go, Tribe

afh4 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:22:41 -0000

Why did I get this earring?

The Indians' 2008 season is almost certainly unsalvagable in a short-term sense. We all know it's been soul-sucking up to this point; but where do we go from here? How are we supposed to process this? You need to look internally and recognize what's happening inside of you, unless you're thinking of Sal Fasano. In that case, just embrace it and enjoy it.

Shock and denial (disbelief)

come on in guys, the numbness is fine

by mrich on May 26, 2008 10:16 PM CDT up actions

What in the sweet chocolate Christ happened here.

by fleerdon on Jun 25, 2008 8:27 PM CDT

Typified by feelings of unreality, depersonalization, withdrawal, and an anesthetizing of affect. The person feels unable to come to terms with what just occurred. Thoughts you may be having:

This isn't my fault or Shapiro's fault. It's no one's fault. This is happening to someone else.
Regression is a powerful force and sometimes it moves up. Call it progression. I can't wait for progression. I never want to eat again.
We're going to look back on this and laugh when we sweep for the championship. God, this bleach actually tastes pretty good!
Looch is probably really fun to hang out with.
I read on CastroTurf that Pronk's swings look way better. Once he's healed, pop the champagne.
I'm not going to watch games until my sex drive returns. Then I'll start watching again. [pause] Did I just hear the STO theme??! It's TRIBE TIME NOW!
Hamilton sounds optimistic tonight.

If this sounds familiar then you're just beginning the process. It's going to get worse before it gets better and for that I and Chris Antonetti apologize.

I am a manifestation of Todd Hollandsworth.

Volatile Reactions

just a couple of things:

1. F--- OUTS BULLSH--.

2. Jeter is the most terriblest shortstop ever.

by Brick. on Apr 28, 2008 7:03 PM CDT actions 0 recs

Whenever one's identity and social order face the possibility of destruction, there is a natural tendency to feel angry, frustrated, helpless, and/or hurt. The volatile reactions of terror, hatred, resentment, and jealousy are often experienced as emotional manifestations of these feelings.

We were going to stop flipping these cars but Skinner waved us on.

You're lashing out and wishing something would meet your fist. Statements roaming your brain might include:

WEDGE! SHELTON! ARRRRRRRRRRRGH!
Hey, does anybody know Casey Blake's home address?
You know who sucks? The Tigers! Ha! What a lousy team! How long do I have to charge my drill before it will pierce flesh?
I'm helpless and this hurts.

Disorganization and despair

October 2007

by SuddenSam on Jun 11, 2008 6:40 PM CDT

These are the processes commonly associated with bereavement: the mourning and severe pain of being away from the loved person or situation. You're nearly out of the woods but this part is hard.

You can recognize that you're in this place by observing yourself again. You might see these phrases among your ruminations:

If I shout into this pillow ten times I'll feel a little better.
I feel like late-life Ernest Hemingway.
I should keep eating.

Bavasi was our Brad.

Reorganization

This is becoming a very very stark reality.

by gte619n on Jun 8, 2008 3:03 PM CDT

Reorganization is the assimilation of the loss of something or someone and redefining of life and meaning without the person that has been lost. It's about reconciling your new reality to the reality you once knew.

Stock photo of Indians' dugout during game.

Certain exercises can help. I've built two life size paper-mache Asdrubal Cabreras; I call one 2007 and the other 2008. Every day I force myself to look at them and realize they are not the same paper mache person. They're paper mache individuals with different feelings and abilities. I also rend my garments every evening.

You're almost through it. Your thoughts will take on a more measured tone, giving you a sense of finality and closure:

2007 was not a mirage but it also is not the present.
I'm pretty excited that Sal Fasano's here, at least.
The ashes of Westbrook's UCL are going to look really nice in that urn.
I'll meet a new season.

Welcome to Cleveland.

So, where's CC's value at?

So if we're not contending. . .

Cap'n Snegiryov — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:25:08 -0000

who are you rooting for? Anyone?

I'm not trying to write the Tribe off prematurely or anything, but this season is quickly going the way of 2006--our bullpen may be as bad as it was then, and our offense is certainly much worse. If we do decide to punt, this season will become interesting for different reasons than we'd hoped (the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes), and if you want to watch meaningful August and September baseball, you'll be watching another team play it.

My question to LGT is this: will you take a rooting interest in another team, or do you already have one? Of course, any support I give other MLB teams will be subordinate and a distant second to my love of the Tribe, but if your team is going to be as soul-crushingly boring and disappointing as the Indians have become this year, I don't see what's wrong with having a bit of an open relationship with it.

My picks:

1.) Atlanta. This is going to be my new home starting in August, and I'm going to be residing there for at least three years (and probably more). Outside of a handful of games in 1995, I've always found a lot to like about the Braves--I've always admired the way they run their organization and fuel their success through homegrown talent, and their rosters are always filled with been toolsy, athletic types who are fun to watch. Bobby Cox is great, Chipper Jones' flirting with a .400 BA is awesome, Brian McCann has been a beast for my fantasy team, and Jeff Francouer just seems cool as hell (and I have to make the customary mention of his cannon throwing arm). Also, one of their TV announcers--I think their play-by-play guy--did a chat on Baseball Prospectus not long ago, which is awesome. Plus, they're a National League team, and I can appreciate the symmetry of rooting for both an AL and an NL team with a vaguely racist name. They're 4.5 games back in a bunched-up NL East, so they're right in the mix of things, and most importantly, their fans aren't obnoxious, which is huge (this is keeping me from liking the Cubs). So, yay Braves!

2.) Tampa Bay. Duh. This team is young, full of awesome talent, has a smart, stats-friendly FO, and most importantly, is making life absolutely miserable for the established powers of the AL East. They start fistfights with the Red Sox and Yankees, Kazmir and Shields are sick, Joel Maddon is weird and a great manager, BJ Upton is great and really underrated, and the Troy Percival comeback is a really cool story. If they make the playoffs, that means either Boston or New York doesn't, so ipso facto, I like this team.

3.) Oakland A's. Basically, I want to see Billy Beane get a ring, so guys like Bill Plaschke can shove it.

What do you all think? Anything?

Economics of Losing

peter m — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:20:59 -0000

I was wondering at what point, if any, the Indians' disappointing season becomes an economic concern for the team. Right now, they're averaging 25,787 per game (22nd in the majors). That's about 3000 less than last year's final averages, but still above the levels for 2004, 2005 and 2006. Normally, the Indians could expect attendance to go up in the good weather months of summer and probably hoped for a bump in September if there was a pennant race. Now, it looks as if the pennant race is not going to happen and fans may stay away if the team sits in last place and plays the kind of dull baseball we've been seeing. So, my question is whether people think the economics of this will either force the Indians to shake things up to cut costs and/or to shake things up in order to revive interest in the team?

O/T Eurocup & Bisons Thread

APV — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 17:54:03 -0000

Consider this a match thread for the semi-finals of the Eurocup, beginning at 2:30 this afternoon. Also, to keep it somewhat baseball related, we can follow Buffalo's game this afternoon which begins at 2 (Jeff "sure to win our hearts" Harris is on the mound for the Bisons). My two favorite teams got knocked out in the quarters (Netherlands and Croatia), so I've got no strong opinions on any of the remaining squads. It'd be fun to see Turkey beat Germany, but they've got so many guys out for today's match that I find that very unlikely. Russia's played very solid football, but I feel obliged to root for Spain. I hope Spain plays more animated football than they did in the quarterfinal matchup with Italy, which was extremely boring. Is that 75 words?

A Dellucci thread.

Toxicadam — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:50:54 -0000

First some stats.

Last 112 plate appearances: .186 average .661 OPS 28k's 9 BB's 3 HR's

As of today, his 2008 and 2007 seasons are almost mirror images. The one difference is that he has 3 more home runs. 2007 was widely viewed as a disappointing season (not only to himself but to the front office) and became a forgotten man in the last part of the 2007 season. So, Dellucci is basically a .230 hitter with the ability to hit a homerun every 25 or so AB's. A guy who will strikeout 4 times to every walk.

He has 1 hit as a pinch hitter (the Joba HR) in 10 tries. He's only had 9 AB's all season against lefties and has yet to collect a hit. So, it's questionable why he would even be brought on as a late inning replacement when he hasn't performed better than anyone else on this team.

So, it's a lot of words and numbers to tell you something you already know. Dellucci is poor. Dellucci even sticks out among a bunch of other poor hitters in the Tribe lineup.

But what to do with him? Is he really blocking anyone from playtime? Will he just become another Trot Nixon and spend the second half on the bench?

More Lineup Analysis

Buckeye Brad — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 21:40:14 -0000

First of all, before everyone jumps on me, I realize that this topic has been discussed to death. And I know I posted about a week ago suggesting moving Grady down to second and that prompted a long discussion. But I was reading Joe Posnanski today and he linked to something at Baseball Musings that did a lineup analysis. If you entered the nine batters along with their respective OBP and SLG, the tool would return the expected runs per game for that lineup along with what the 30 best (and worst) lineups. Naturally, I had to try this out with the current Indians lineup.

I used what is currently the starting lineup (including Grady, BenFran, Gutz, and Choo in the 4 OF/DH spots and leaving out Delluci) and their OBP and SLG for 2008. I realize this may include a small sample size for some players, such as Choo, but this method seemed the easiest and fairest. Here are the results of the optimal lineup:

Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Gutierrez
Carroll

Very close to the current lineup, with the obvious exception of Choo leading off, Grady second, and Carroll ninth. This lineup would score an average of 5.175 runs per game, while the usual Indians lineup (that I entered) scores 4.906. This difference amounts to about 0.27 runs per game, which over the course of a full season is 43 runs. So I would say that difference, while small, is certainly not insignificant.

I have no idea how they run this simulation (although there are three links at the top to articles that help describe their methods) but I thought it was fun to try. I thought some member here might want to try other lineups (with Delluci, perhaps, or using their career numbers rather than from this season). I realize, also, that Choo might be overvalued with his .400 OBP and .510 SLG, so I ran another simulation using his career numbers of .356/.424 and the results were . . . exactly the same. He still hit leadoff. Also, in the best lineups, Grady always hit either second or fourth, and the hitter batting leadoff most often after Choo was Carroll. Very interesting.

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I found this tool fun and interesting and thought some people from LGT might enjoy this.

Going for the hbp record

peter m — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:54:51 -0000

Rather than tie myself in knots trying to decide whether to trade CC and to whom, I decided to amuse myself by doing some calculations regarding the Indians' propensity to get hit by a pitch. Right now, we have been hit 54 times, far and away the most in the majors. At the rate we are going, we will shatter the American league record for a team, currently held by Toronto (1996), who were hit 96 times. We are on pace for 115. The all-time record is held by Boston (NL - Braves?), back in 1898 -- 148. I say go for it! Perhaps we can trade CC for batters who get hit a lot -- among active players, leaders include Jason Kendall, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, David Eckstein and Jeff Kent (surely some of those guys are available)? Coax Craig Biggio out of retirement (who needs Bonds?). Hire Ron Hunt to teach the Indians how to get hit on purpose and get away with it? Fire Wedge and hire Don Baylor? Let's put our heads together and figure out how to get this team into the record books!

Tribe relievers and HR/FB

Peter Bendix — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 15:13:34 -0000

Indians relievers have given up an inordinately high amount of homers per fly balls so far this year.

Out of American League relief pitchers who have pitched at least nine innings this year, how many Cleveland Indians do you think are in the bottom 22 relievers, in terms of homers per fly ball? In other words, out of the 22 relievers who have given up the most homers per fly ball this year, how many are Cleveland Indians?

Well, there are 14 teams in the AL. So, considering that any deviation from the norm of around 11-12% homers per fly ball for a pitcher is generally due to luck, we would expect at least one, and perhaps two, Indians relievers to be in the bottom 22.

In actuality, FIVE Indians relievers are in the bottom 22.

Rafael Perez has given up homers on 25% of his fly balls, Edward Mujica on 16.7%, Joe Borowski on 15.8%, Jorge Julio on 15.8%, and Rafael Betancourt on 14.3%.

In comparison, Minnesota has three relievers in the bottom 22, and no other team has more than two.

As the amount of homers a pitcher gives up per fly ball fluctuates due to luck, it is reasonable to assume that these numbers will regress, and, as they do, these relievers will give up fewer runs. Hopefully this regression will play itself out over the course of the rest of the season, and our bullpen will improve.

It's the Bullpen

peter m — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:10:57 -0000

If Mark Shapiro is trying to figure out whether to fish or cut bait, it seems to me he should focus his attention on the bullpen. The numbers aren't pretty. The Tribe bullpen currently ranks as follows among the 30 Major League teams:

Worst in Batting Average Against

2nd worst in ERA

27th in WHIP

28th in Save %

6th most HR's allowed (despite being 27th in innings pitched).

Despite the injuries to Carmona and Westbrook, the starting pitching has remained pretty strong. The hitting, while still anemic, has done somewhat better and is no longer dead last or near dead last as it was earlier in the season. The darkest cloud over the team, then, is the bullpen. Does anyone out there think this group can turn it around or see any signs that they're about to? Unless Shapiro does (and I'm increasingly skeptical), it's getting to be time to sell.

Trading C.C.

APV — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 17:28:45 -0000

I'm sure we'll have several of these posts in the next few weeks, but I thought I'd get the ball rolling. There was a post over at Beyond the Box Score making the case for not trading C.C. a few days ago. The author makes the argument that given the value of Santana last off-season, the Indians are better served playing things out and getting compensatory draft picks for C.C. in the off-season. Here's his conclusion:

However, given what the Twins received for Johan Santana, it’s unlikely that any of these caliber of players would be offered in a deal for Sabathia. If this is the case, Shapiro is best served to let the season play out, and attempt to add another bat to the lineup in an effort to give the Indians the best opportunity possible to make it back to the postseason. The Indians are better than they have shown so far, and should be able to make a serious push for a spot in the postseason.

Here's what I wrote in response:

I think the argument in favor of holding out for compensation picks is weak and losing ground by the day.

First, the Indians situation is increasingly dire. They are only 6.5 games out, but they’ve lost one starting pitcher for the season (and beyond – Jake Westbrook), another pitcher’s rehab just suffered a setback which will probably keep him out for another 4 weeks (Fausto Carmona), Travis Hafner just paid a visit to James Andrews after a setback in his rehab, Victor Martinez is out for 6-8 weeks, and 2B/depth option Josh Barfield is also on the shelf for 6-8 weeks. No matter how you conceptualize it, this is an undermanned team that is not likely to meet its preseason performance expectations for the next 4-6 weeks. Those 4-6 weeks are obviously critical for determining the fate of this season and don’t bode well for Cleveland, even in the anemic looking AL Central.

The second issue is the short-term 2009-2010 future of the team. Most of Cleveland’s major-league talent (Sabathia and Byrd excluded) is locked in until 2011 or 2012. There’s no reason to think this shouldn’t be a very good team in that time period. And yet this season has exposed obvious holes in the corner outfield spots, 3B, 2B, and 1B. Not all of these holes are equal, but they are all areas which could be substantially improved upon over the next few years. Unfortunately, while the Indians have great minor league pitching depth, the organization does not have much position player talent in the upper minors. Only a handful of guys at AA & AAA look like significant future contributors (Wes Hodges, Jordan Brown, Chris Gimenez), and their timelines are uncertain.

The advantage of trading Sabathia this season is that it brings the possibility of adding young talent which can contribute within 2-3 years. It is doubtful two compensatory picks in the 2009 draft would contribute anything offensively before 2012 at the earliest. That runs the risk of missing the peak “core” of the current team, which would be a serious mistake.

I think the Indians are one bad week from being in a position where trading Sabathia would appear the obvious and correct choice (last night’s 10-2 loss to the Rocks was a good/bad start to this).

I'd also add, that the chances of the Indians to add a premier offensive free-agent (an increasingly small pool) in the off-season is very small.

If the Indians continue to look like something less than a stellar team, the question of trading C.C. will depend on the value we can get in return. I'd be interested in hearing other people's thoughts, though.

Adding...there's been good discussion of this elsewhere on LGT (particularly here ), I'm hoping this thread will consolidate that a little.

Tribe @ CWS June 30 - July 2

Turkmenbashi — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:27:00 -0000

Hey all --

Just wanted to let the Chicago LGT crowd know I'm gonna be up in Chitown for the next Indians/Sux series. I'll be there for the whole week, so I'm flexible and can go to any/all of the three games. I'd love to meet up with Brick and the boyz for a few beers and dogs and a game, so let me know if you're interested. I'm thinking by then, we should be poised for a nice series sweep to take over the Central.