With all the recent call-ups and send-downs, it's a good time to review the service time for our younger players.  As first discussed in an article a couple years back, service time considerations can play a significant role in determining the exact timing of who gets to play in the majors when, and for how long.  It rarely would play a decisive role, especially for a team in contention, but the Indians keep lots of players hanging around on the bubble — could be up, could be down, no real right or wrong answer — so service time logically becomes a factor.  And in any season in which contending starts to look more like a pipe dream — and we're just about there — service time logically becomes more significant, as compared to an all-out win-right-now approach.

All else being equal — and it rarely is — there are two key events a team would rather delay.  One is free agency, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with at least six full years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player is set up to end seasons with something slightly less than a full year. The other, arguably more important, is arbitration, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with roughly 2.8 years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player (one who is likely to be in the majors most or all of the following year) ends the current season with 125 days or fewer of service time, in addition to any full years he might have accrued already.

Many of our players will be eligible for free agency at the end of the last guaranteed year of their current contracts, whether this year or many years into the future, so we needn't discuss those players here:  Sabathia, Westbrook, Hafner, Byrd, Blake, Martinez, Borowski, Dellucci, Lee, Sizemore, Kobayashi, Peralta, Betancourt, Carroll and Elarton.  Rick Bauer, if he sticks — do we ever get that lucky? — will be eligible for arbitration, but he won't be a free agent until after 2010.  Brendan Donnelly — remember him? — will be a free agent after 2009, if he can make it back to the majors this season.  If not, we will have the option to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, retaining his rights through 2010.  (Other minor leaguers like Todd Linden, Jason Tyner and Jorge Velandia are in similar situations but aren't worth detailing.)

Carmona will not be eligible for free agency if his first club option is declined for 2012, but he will be eligible for arbitration of course.  Carmona ended the 2007 season with 1.169 service time.  (That's one year, plus 169 days — there are 183 days in the major league season, but once a player reaches 172, it counts as a full year.)  Essentially, because the Indians opted for a post-closer-implosion demotion back in 2006, he won't be eligible for free agency until 2013, rather than 2012, and yet he was still going to reach arbitration for 2009 as a Super Two, rather than having to wait until 2010 as a fourth-year player.  The delayed free agency explains in part why the Indians were able to get him to agree to a club option for 2012 rather than another guaranteed year.  On the other hand, his impending Super Two status explains why his salary will shoot into the millions in just the second year of the deal, in contrast with Sizemore and Peralta, who didn't receive that kind of raise until year three of their deals, which were similarly timed.  This stuff is arcane and dry, but it always shows up in the multiyear deals.

JEREMY SOWERS — 1.012 to start 2008, 1.105 estimated/best-guess to end 2008, 1.125 max to end 2008.  In another piece of cagey roster management, Sowers had spent exactly two days in the majors this season to make his two starts prior to this week, so the most he can finish with this season is 1.125.  That almost certainly avoids Super Two status for 2010, pushing arbitration back to 2011 and free agency to after 2013.

AARON LAFFEY — 0.058 start, 1.040 est., 1.040 max.  In the majors since April 28, Laffey may well reach that maximum 1.040, given the hits our rotation depth has taken.  Still, if Carmona comes back on schedule, don't be surprised if Laffey gets sent down in favor of giving Sowers some extended time in the majors — after all, Sowers' service time is already "optimized," while Laffey's is not.  Laffey would need 41 more days in the minors this season, or 52 days in two different seasons, to push his walk year from 2013 to 2014.  Now on track to reach arbitration for 2011, he'd have to spend about 85 more days in the minors this season, or 96 days across two seasons, to push that back to 2012.

ASDRUBAL CABRERA — 0.055 start, 0.145 est., 1.055 max.  Demoted just this week, Cabrera now has 125 days of service time, but there's a presumption that he'll be in the majors not just for all of 2009 forward, but also for 28 more days in September when rosters expand (or perhaps more like 20 if Buffalo makes the playoffs).  If that's the only time he spends in Cleveland the rest of the season, Cabrera will finish with 153 days, putting him on track as a Super Two for 2011 and free agency after 2014.  If he spends 47 more days in the majors this season, including September, he'll be on track to reach free agency a year earlier, after 2013.  If, on the other hand, he spends the rest of this season in the minors, including September, or 123 days between this season and one other season, he'll fall out of the 2011 Super Two class, reaching arbitration for 2012 and free agency after 2014.

JOSH BARFIELD — 2.000 start, 2.112 est., 2.112 max.  In demoting Barfield to start the season, the Indians pushed his free agency back a year by mid-April.  Having just been called up a week into June, he'll end the year with no more than 2.112 — less than three weeks shy of the arbitration threshold.  This is not entirely a coincidence, a tangible element in the organization's desire to increase his trade value.  Barfield is a valuable trade chip, but his up-and-down track record carries an element of risk.  Keeping him out of arbitration makes him more attractive by reducing risk on the payroll — the Indians can say, essentially, that this player will still be making the minimum in 2009, so if he doesn't work out, the sunk cost is minimal, and if he does work out, the team still keeps the player for three additional seasons.  Of course, the same is true if the Indians keep him.

So basically, for both our pair of soft-tossing lefties and our pair of soft-hitting middle infielders, we have a presently less-shiny guy whose status is totally conducive to keeping him the majors, and a presently more-shiny guy whose status would improve substantially with a little more time in the minors.  Sowers and Barfield are "optimized," while Laffey and Cabrera are tantalizingly close to the thresholds for extending the team's rights.  Moreover, given the youth of the non-optimized, the walk-year seasons that hang in the balance are pretty likely to be valuable ones — in 2014, Laffey will be 29, and Cabrera will be 28.  That extra season under team control will significantly raise the value of each of these guys as an asset — not enough to avoid trading a starter, mind you, but we want it.

BEN FRANCISCO — 0.071 start, 1.049 est., 1.049 max.  Ben is looking unlikely to be optioned to the minors this season, although as one of the only position players with an option remaining, some combination of a short-term roster crunch and/or a slump could still make it happen.  Assuming he stays all season, he'll accrue 150 days of service time.  (That's 4 in April + 26 in May + 120 from June through September 28), which will put him at 1.049 (71 + 150 = 221, 221 - 172 for the full-year rollover = 49, thus 1.049.)  That will have him reaching free agency after 2013, unless he spends another two months in the minors at some point, which would push it back to after 2014.  He's on track to reach arbitration for 2011, unless he spends another 105 days in the minors at some point, pushing it back to 2012.

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The series:  Visited the White Sox (loss, loss, loss) and hosted the Rangers (loss, win, loss).

The big story:  We sucked.  After climbing to the top of the division in the middle of last week, the Indians went 1-8.  The pitching snapped back to reality, while the hitters produced the same 19 runs this week that they had over the previous six games, only more poorly distributed.  In response, Wedge fumed, while Francisco and Aubrey added to the idea of slump by contagion, hitting far better in Cleveland than they ever have in Buffalo, seemingly immune to the rest of the team's two-month struggle.

The Indians are the worst-hitting team in the league this season, and they have also been, by far, the worst-hitting team in the majors in the month of May, more than a full run below the major-league average, and nearly a half-run per game worse than the worst team in the National League — again, that's the league where the pitchers are batting maybe three times a game.  The offense has occasionally broken out for a big game, but that has only obscured how bad the offense really has been — the average is 3.4  runs per game, but the median is a solid 3.0.  Week-long power outages have been the most notable feature of the 2008 season:

• April 3-9, 20 runs in seven games, 2.9 average, 2-5 record
• April 24-29, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
• May 1-8, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
• May 12-25, 41 runs in 14 games, 2.9 average, 5-9 record

We actually have a better than expected record in those games, of course, because our starting pitching has been so outstanding over most of those weeks.  Incredibly, our Pythagorean record is actually 27-23 despite the awful hitting, but a half-dozen ninth-inning blowups have us at 23-27 instead.

The biggest tragedy here is the missed opportunities within the division, which directly impact our ability to make the playoffs and cannot be recouped.  The Indians have been 32 runs better than the Tigers but have only a two-game edge to show for it rather than six or seven — should both teams have any kind of bounce back after this point, those games will make a difference.

Worse yet, the Indians surrendered three straight games to the White Sox, who may well turn out to be the only other team who can over 85 wins in a deeply disappointing division.  Head-to-head records and BIP luck were the entire difference between these two clubs in 2005, when they ended the season with 99 and 93 wins respectively, and so far, history is repeating.

In other news:  Fausto Carmona went to the Disabled List with a hip injury and is expected to miss a full month — yet nobody panicked, as Jake Westbrook was completing a successful run of rehab starts in Akron even as Carmona's season was getting ruptured.  Westbrook was already scheduled to return on the exact day of Carmona's next would-be start, and even if he weren't, the Indians have other fine options waiting in Buffalo.

The Indians shuffled up the bullpen part of the roster pretty good, returning Joe Borowski to his old closer job late in the week and demoting Jensen Lewis, in the hopes that he can regain his old velocity in Buffalo.  The team put rarely used lefty Craig Breslow on waivers while claiming Oneli Perez, a talented but struggling young reliever, from the White Sox and sending him to Buffalo.  Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica were promoted from Buffalo to fill out the staff.

Post of the week:  AngG gets her Rick James on (or is it her Wayne Brady?) as part of a hilarious sequence of rants.  Other nominess: jhon (summing up Wedge disgust nicely),  mjschaefer (replying to zempf),  gte619n (replying to supermarioelia), drerikbrady (tremendous attention to detail), jakesinger777 (expanding on Cisco's Buckner moment).

Who fed it:  C.C. Sabathia and Ben Francisco led a very slim list of candidates for this week, both of them continuing strong runs.  Sabathia gave up three runs, all on solo-shots, over 14 innings, striking out 13 with three walks.  He has a 1.63 ERA (and RA) over his past seven starts, averaging 8 strikeouts and 1.6 walks in 7.2 innings.  Francisco pounded out five doubles and a home run while batting .320, and in playing every inning of the team's last 11 games, he's put up a stunning line of .395/.422/.721 — contributing more than 25% of the total bases and less than 8% of the outs.  Rafael Betancourt bounced back from three horrendous weeks (16.20 ERA) with three scoreless innings, all in the 8th, although he did allow an inherited run.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Francisco.

Who fed it breakdown:  Relief pitchers are hard to evaluate based on box scores, considering the incredibly blunt instruments used to assign earned runs.  Masa Kobayashi gave up an earned run, an unearned run and an inherited run this week but actually pitched pretty well.   In the first game, he relieved Laffey with no outs and a man on first, facing the top of the Chicago lineup.  He got a strikeout and a deep flyout, with a very speedy pinch-runner advancing to second base.   He then allowed a single on the ground through the gaping Blake/Peralta hole, scoring the inherited runner, and finally his only earned run of the week on the only legit line-drive hit.  In the second game, he faced the Rangers' 2-thru-5 hitters, getting a strikeout and two groundouts, allowing just a single on the ground to Josh Hamilton — a damned fine inning.  In the third game, he faced the Rangers' 3-thru-1 hitters, and he got three groundouts including a double-play, plus a strikeout and a flyout.  He allowed only a walk, a single on the ground and one line-drive single.  Had that one line-drive not followed the walk, or had there not been two outs, or had the ball not rolled under the right fielder's legs, we're looking at another fine shutout inning.  So while it may seem like Masa had a bad week, I'm not so sure.

Who ate it:  Where to even begin?  Blake, back to playing every inning, responded by slugging .143 — over the last two weeks, he's had one great game (2-4, 6 TB), four decent games (4-14, 0 TB) and eight awful ones (0-25, 0 TB).  Dellucci continued his atrocious month, using his 14 PA to generate just 3 total bases, against three double-plays, three strikeouts, and at least three awful throws from left field — his May OPS is just 444, and even worse, it's just 482 against lefties alone.  The Platoon Of Despair®, meanwhile, crushed any hopes we might have had for them last week, combining for .156/.282/.188, and yes, that's a 470 OPS, and yes, they are slugging a combined .361 for the season — thanks for asking!  Not to be outdone, catchers Martinez and Shoppach combined for an empty 3-for-23 with a 297 OPS.  Jensen Lewis gave up three runs on three walks, three singles, two doubles and one HBP, en route to Buffalo.  Jorge Julio stepped into two budding trainwrecks (from Byrd and Carmona) and made both of them much worse (more below).  Absolute Worst:  Julio.  Relative Worst:  Considering positional OPS differences, it's just too close to call among Martinez (267), Blake (360), Dellucci (445) and Hafner (459).

Who ate it breakdown:  Unlike Masa, Jorge Julio's bad week was even worse than it appeared — and with an 18.00 ERA, it appeared pretty bad.  In the first game, Julio relieved Byrd with men on first and second and one out.  The run expectancy here is 0.97, but Julio was facing the bottom third of Chicago's lineup and had the platoon edge on two of the three.  He gave up a deep flyball double to the righty Crede, scoring one inherited runner and advancing the other to third base with only one out.  He walked the lefty Swisher intentionally, then gave up a long sac-fly to righty Alexei Ramirez, who just-by-the-way is terrible, scoring that other inherited run, then got the leadoff hitter Cabrera to ground out to end the inning.  He started the next inning with strikeouts to Chicago's 2-3 hitters, then the home run to Jermaine Dye — Julio's first earned run allowed in five weeks — at which point he was pulled.  So against five right-handers in that game, he got a strikeout and a groundout but also three very hard-hit deep flies, each of which drove in one run.

Of course, that game was just a warmup for the major gas-can emptying he would do two nights later.  Relieving a struggling and injured Carmona in the 3rd, with men on first and third and no outs — but again, he's facing the bottom of the lineup, so he really should get out of this with minimal damage.  The sequence:  walk, walk, grand slam, line-drive double, line-drive double — so already, that's six runs, two inherited and four earned, and there's still no outs.  Julio finally gets a groundball, but it goes for an infield single, then a strikeout.  The inning ends with two more deep flies that get caught — but the adventure wasn't over!  Julio starts the next inning by allowing two more scorching line drives, but it's just his good fortune that the second one is hit straight at Peralta, who catches it and then doubles off the first guy — so that's two outs, bases empty, despite not one batter really beaten by Julio.  Next it's a walk, and then a double on a groundball to right, and at that point, he gets pulled with men on second and third, two outs.

So even though his ERA for the week was 18.00, it doesn't begin to describe how bad he really was.  Outside of those earned runs, he allowed all four inherited runners to score, while the two runners he left behind did not score.  And while he did get some legit outs, he also pitched into some very good luck, and he totally failed to keep the ball in the infield, even with the platoon edge against the other team's worst hitters.  He was, all things considered, about as bad as a pitcher can possibly be while getting nine outs — charged with just 6 ER, he pitched badly enough to allow 12.

It is time to bring back everyone's favorite bit of cathartic therapy. Two years ago, the Indians were so disappointing that a lot of us wanted to just blow up the whole thing and start over. Yeah, it didn't make a lot of sense, but it made us feel better.

Well, the time has come to dig up this irrational concept again. And where better to direct the wrecking ball first to than the rotation?

(For contract details, see Cot's Contracts' Indians page )

C.C. Sabathia

2008 Salary: $9.0M

Signed Through: 2008

Controlled Through: 2008

PRO: Most of the contenders' General Managers would be willing to crawl over two miles of broken glass while having Barney the Dinosaur piped directly into their temporal lobes just to have Mark Shapiro listen to their proposal for Sabathia. For those with deep pockets, they'd have 4-5 months to try to get Sabathia to sign an extension, and for any team, they'd add one of the best pitchers in baseball to their rotation. So no prospect would be off-limits to the Indians, and even players normally not even talked about would at least come into the conversation.

PRO: The Indians aren't going to keep Sabathia past this season, and the major reason didn't trade him was because they thought they would contend again. So if we remove that little impediment, why wouldn't you trade the best pending free agent in baseball?

PRO: Even if a tiny part of you thinks that Sabathia would re-sign with the Indians, and if the Indians found room on their payroll, wouldn't a Santana-like deal be too much a risk to take for team that's already sunk a lot of coin into extensions for Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook?

CON: There's still a chance albeit a tiny one, to keep CC around, and most fans wouldn't look too kindly on the Indians punting on Sabathia this soon.

CON: As bad as the Indians have played, they're only 4.5 games back in the division race.

Cliff Lee

2008 Salary: $3.75M

Signed Through: 2009

Controlled Through: 2010 (Team Option)

PRO: Perceived value probably won't get any higher after a magical run to start the season.

PRO: Has a ridiculously team-friendly contract, so any team not named the Marlins would be in the running for him, driving up the asking price.

PRO: Recent history has been mediocre to terrible, so now may be the time to sell high.

CON: Has a very reasonable contract, and the Indians are probably losing two of their starters to free agency after the season.

CON: Why trade him now just when he's finally figured things out? He's had no history of arm problems, and has always had pretty good stuff.

Fausto Carmona

2008 Salary: $500K

Signed Through: 2011

Controlled Through: 2014 (Team Options)

PRO: Did I say Cliff Lee's contract was ridiculously team-friendly? Whoever trades for Carmona could have another six dominant seasons without having to negotiate a thing with Carmona's agent. And while a team willing to give up value enough to for that pitcher/contract combination may not exist, it only takes one GM and one moment of insanity to give the Indians an entire farm system.

CON: OK, back to reality. Carmona's got the best sinker in baseball, a great attitude, and he's just 24 years old. And did I mention the contract?

CON: There is no package of players out there that could get the Indians full value for Carmona and his contract.

Jake Westbrook

2008 Salary: $10M

Signed Through: 2010

Controlled Through: 2010

PRO: It may sound like a broken record, but even at a quasi-market salary, Westbrook's contract is very friendly. The remaining length of the contract is just about perfect for a trading club; there's only two years left, so the risk isn't that great, but you'd still have two years until he could become a free agent. 

PRO: Westbrook's now been on the DL for two straight seasons, and he's probably at his peak right now. Those two years left on his contract may be for at best a slowly declining and injury-prone pitcher with a low strikeout rate to begin with.

CON: Westbrook has been a very reliable innings-eater for five seasons now, and he just signed an extension that was a bit below market-value. And he likes it in Cleveland, something that hasn't been a commonplace happening in recent years.

CON: Other teams may not think Westbrook is that good, and those are the GMs you want to be talking to.

Paul Byrd

2008 Salary: $7.5M

Signed Through: 2008

Controlled Through: 2008

PRO: Even if the Indians get back into the race, they'd have to think of Byrd as a nice trading chip. Even if they don't bring back Sabathia, the Indians probably aren't going to make a huge fuss of re-signing Byrd, at least not at what the free market will dictate.

PRO: At this stage in his career, Byrd is living off preparation and pinpoint control. There's not a whole lot separating Byrd from a starting spot and being out of baseball. And the longer time frame the Indians begin to think in, the more risk keeping Byrd around brings.

PRO: With Byrd being linked to the PED scandal, keeping him would be a bad example to the children of America. And no amount of plush hot dog giveaways would overcome the stain of devastation the children of Northeast Ohio would have burned upon their minds if the Indians would even think about bringing Byrd back.

CON: He's one of the best 5th starters in baseball.

CON: Now that Carmona is on the DL, the Indians still need him in the rotation.

Aaron Laffey

2008 Salary: $393K

Signed Through: 2008

Controlled Through: 2013 (assuming he stays in the majors from now on)

PRO: Young left-handed ground-ball machine that's had some success but still with less than a year of service time? This time even the Marlins are interested. He may not be worth Garret Atkins, but then again, who is?

PRO: As with any young player, will he survive the first wave of adjustments teams will make to him? Perhaps once hitters stop trying to pull his sinkers, he'll quickly become a lot less effective.

CON: Even if the Indians would undergo a 2002-style rebuild, he's the type of player the Indians would be trying to stockpile.

In General: The Indians are facing the loss of both Byrd and Sabathia, so those two would definitely be on the table if the Indians fall out of the race. If the Indians get some semblance of an offense and if they aren't down 10 games by the All-Star Break, they'll hold on to Sabathia, though there could a couple scenarios where they'd deal Byrd,.

And because Sabathia and Byrd probably won't be here next year, the other four guys mentioned above won't likely be traded. The Indians don't like to use free agency to fill holes, and especially don't like filling a rotation hole with a free agent.

Placed RHP Fausto Carmona on the 15-day Disabled List (hip)

Although Carmona is expected to miss four weeks, his injury is not considered serious in a long-term sense and may ultimately be a blessing in disguise, keeping his workload down in 2008 after a big jump in innings in 2007.   It also basically fits his hypothetical mechanical struggles, either as cause or effect, which fit both his oddly inflated walk totals and Will Carroll's pre-season prediction:

Carmona has never had to come back from a 200-inning workload before, and there's almost always a price to pay for that. I'd expect Carmona to have something happen like did with Westbrook last year at midseason—a minor injury that causes him to miss a month, but that he comes back from strong and actually winds up getting saved from another big jump in IP by the time off.

For any other team, having a starter of Carmona's caliber go down would be seen as catastrophic, but at least on this site, Indians fans hardly registered any alarm at all — perhaps in part because of a learned confidence in the team's ability to heal young pitchers and keep them healthy over the long haul.

But the real confidence is in the Indians' incomparable rotation depth.  Jake Westbrook is scheduled to come off the Disabled List just in time to make Carmona's next would-be start, and even if he weren't, the Indians have at least two other starters ready to step in and already on the 40-man roster in Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller.  (It's an odd twist considering that last May, Westbrook went on the DL just in time for Cliff Lee to return, which allowed Carmona to stay and further establish himself in the big-league rotation.)

Its main effect on the team might be to spare everyone the agony of sending a highly effective Aaron Laffey to the minors to make room for Westbrook, a topic which had already started to sprout hourly calls for Paul Byrd to be traded.

Depth is good, and another point this drives home is that it's easier for a team to leverage its depth in the event of injury, rather than in the event of poor performances.  With struggling players (e.g., most of the lineup), we have the depth to replace the poorly performing parts but nowhere on any roster to stash them — we're not going to just cut Hafner or Blake, even though we have the depth to replace them.  With an injury, you just put the guy on the DL and leverage your depth right away.  It's just easier.

Designated LHP Craig Breslow for Assignment

Claimed RHP Oneli Perez from Chicago White Sox and Assigned him to Buffalo (AAA)

Six transactions over two days involving just six spots on the active roster, i.e., the bullpen — there should be no doubt, the Indians are as concerned about the bullpen as the fans are about the offense.  And in this sense they're right:  The offense should fix itself, and if it doesn't, there isn't much you could do with one or two moves, and major moves rarely happen overnight.  The bullpen, on the other hand, seems to be more like ending up with the right hand, and if you can reshuffle the deck every other day to get a new hand, why not keep making moves until you're satisfied?

It also points up the essential hairiness of acquiring, deploying and discarding relievers, an area in which the sample sizes are so scarce that it's worth asking whether any statistics are worth looking at, even over a whole season, let alone the murderer's row of dumb stats we always use for pitchers:  "wins," "losses," ERA, holds, saves, blown saves — not a useful stat among them when it comes to relievers.  And unlike position players, you can't just throw a guy in there for a while and see what happens, because the results are too costly.  A hitter can have a miserable set of three or four games and ultimately not cost the team even one win; offense is a collective effort, and even your best hitters will fail 60 percent of the time anyway.  A struggling reliever, however, can torch multiple games in a row, so even if it is a case of bad luck, small sample or an easily recovered-from dry spell, a team just can't take that chance for anyone but the most established performers.

So the team faces a dilemma with a guy like Breslow, who presents plenty to like but an uncertain projection, on a team that feels it doesn't have the margin for error to let him try to develop some consistency.   A guy like Rick Bauer is doing exactly that in the minors, but Breslow can't be sent to the minors.  Ultimately, the team decided it couldn't be tantalized by his raw ability and favorable contract status.  Breslow was passed over by 28 teams on waivers back in March, so we may get to keep him.  Bottom line, though, a team like the Indians needs a guy like Breslow to work it out in the minors, and the fact that they might lose him in the process doesn't change that.  More than assets, we need options, and Breslow doesn't have any.

Oneli Perez, on the other hand, does have options.  He's given up the same 18 runs and five home runs in 2008 that he did in 2007, the difference being the innings:  93 last year, 17 this year.  I don't know what went wrong with him in Triple-A this season, all I do know is that he spent more than a full season at Double-A and racked up a 1.84 ERA, while striking out 109 guys in 93 innings — seriously, where do I sign up?  He'll turn 25 tomorrow, and he has one option year remaining in addition to the current season. That gives the Indians all of this season and next to turn him around and into a big-league reliever, but given his Double-A numbers, don't be surprised if he ends up contributing in Cleveland this year.

Reinstated RHP Joe Borowski from the 15-day Disabled List (ability)

Funny thing about Borowski is that we all seemed to have blocked him out of our minds, as though his cataclysmic last appearance and subsequent trip to the DL meant that we weren't going to have to suffer him any longer.  Like, you know, our long national nightmare is over.  Since it isn't, might as well try to look at the bright side, like, no more mind-numbing "closer controversy," as we're spared the otherwise inevitable and inevitably dumb columns about the evils of closer-by-committee.

Borowski does have a small upside, at least compared to the disasters we're all intuitively expecting.  He was effective overall last season, and while his ERA reflected real mediocrity, it also reflected a little genuinely bad luck on balls in play, .335 BABIP for a guy whose career mark is .296. Some days — too many days — he just doesn't have it, but he never seems to choke, and he never gives it away.   When he's getting beat, it's only because he simply isn't all that good, and if he's a bum, at least he's a bum that Cleveland can get behind.

Optioned RHP Jensen Lewis to Buffalo (AAA)

Recalled RHP Ed Mujica from Buffalo (AAA)

Purchased the Contract of RHP Scott Elarton and Recalled him from Buffalo (AAA)

Confused?  Don't be.  These moves actually make sense.  With Lewis, the Indians reached essentially the same conclusion that they did with Breslow, i.e., that he's not going to work himself into the pitcher the Indians want him to be while in the majors, so down he goes.  It makes sense to see this as a win-later move, as the Indians send down a reasonably effective reliever for a few weeks in the hopes of having him make the kind of big impact late in 2008 that he had late in 2007.  This is Lewis' first optional assignment, so if there's a price to be paid in terms of the option clock, it won't be until 2011 at the earliest.

Mujica has been Buffalo's most dominant reliever for the last month-plus, and yes, I'm including Bauer.  Mujica has only allowed two runs in his last 13 games, spanning 17+ innings, but he had a rough first half of April and gave up seven runs in one appearance on April 6, permanently crapping up his overall numbers.  Mujica first emerged as a star prospect back in 2005, in Kinston and Akron at age 21, and in 2006, he went more than three months and nearly 50 innings before giving up a single run in Akron, Buffalo and Cleveland, eventually allowing one in his fourth big-league game on July 14.  He struggled with injuries and control in 2007, doing little with the big-league club other than making blowouts into bigger blowouts.

Bauer, for those who must compare, has a track record that is almost shocking in its lack of anything impressive over a 12-year pro career.  He had two pretty good seasons in the high minors, at ages 24 and 27, and two solid but unspectacular seasons in the majors, at ages 25 and 29, a lot of mediocre and horrible seasons, even at advanced ages in the minors, and a lot of injuries.  He's put up tremendous numbers in Buffalo this year at age 31, but the Indians would be right to suspect that this is just the luckiest run of a long and undistinguished career, right to let him put in more steady work, and right to want to see a lot more before giving him a bigger shot.

Elarton had earned his shot over the past two months in Buffalo, and he brings with him a strong reputation as a positive influence in the clubhouse, which may have factored into this move, given the team's persistent struggles.  Fans focused on Elarton's past mediocrity might be interested to note his career numbers as a reliever, which include a 2.54 ERA, 553 OPS-against, 1.01 WHIP and 9.64 K/9.  Granted, this was ten years ago, and Elarton doesn't have that kind of velocity anymore, but at least he's done it before, and relieving is just plain easier than starting.  It will be interesting to see what kinds of situations Elarton is put into.

There are plenty of candidates to get removed from the 25-man on Wednesday when Westbrook returns, but it's a safe bet that it won't be Elarton, and it's likely the Indians will go back to a six-man bullpen as long as there's no blowout in the next few days.  Mujica is now the only active reliever who can be sent to the minors, but there's a decent chance the Indians will opt to DFA Jorge Julio instead.  He spent three weeks creeping up to the Circle of Trust, but he just didn't do so well once he got there.

via www.fangraphs.com

This time, it wasn't the offense that was the culprit; it was everything else.

Fausto Carmona not only got ripped early, he left the game in the third with an injury. Carmona's bugaboo continued to be control; his two free passes in the first inning lead to a four-run Ranger outburst. He settled down in the second inning, but two batters into the third, he strained his hip after making a pitch to David Murphy. With Jake Westbrook not far from returning to the rotation, losing Carmona shouldn't be a huge deal if the injury's not serious, but in the long-term, the Indians are going to need Carmona pitching at the top of his game to make any run at the playoffs. And it isn't just a matter of him returning to the mound, but figuring out whatever mechanical problem is dogging him. That's going to take time, and now that Carmona is on the shelf, it's going to take a lot longer.

Jorge Julio game into the game inheriting two runners and poured gasoline onto the already blazing fire, walking the first two batters he faced, then served up a grand slam to Jarrod Saltalamacchia. By the time the inning was over, the Indians were down 11-3, and if you've been following this team, the Indians scoring 11 runs in a week would have been considered an offensive outburst, let alone one game.

But the Rangers' pitching wasn't a whole lot better, and the Cleveland offense took advantage of it. Kason Gabbard couldn't stay in the game long enough to qualify for the win thanks mostly to control. He walked six in 2.2 inning, and left after Grady Sizemore hit a three-run homer to cut the Rangers lead to 11-6. The game felt like a vintage 1999 game, when decent pitching was optional and scoring early and often was required. The two teams used eleven pitchers between them, and not until the late innings did anyone make an appearance without giving up at least a run.

The wackiness continued in the sixth, when Ben Francisco became the latest major-leaguer to have a home run taken away by an umpire. Francisco's ball obviously hit above the yellow line, but was called a double by third base umpire Damien Beal and later confirmed by the entire crew. Eric Wedge was understandably irate, and was tossed after arguing the call. The botched call cost the Indians two runs, and while those two runs weren't the difference in the game, who knows what would have happened with a three run deficit with three innings to play.

The Indians' seven-game losing streak is already three more than the longest streak last year. They certainly aren't out of things as far as the division is concerned, but things have to turn around now.

The series:  Hosted the Athletics (win, win, win) and visited the Reds (loss, loss, loss).  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  The Indians rode an absurd run of exceptional pitching to the division lead, devastating the A's to cap off an 8-2 run, only then to get swept by the not-really-even-kind-of-good Reds.  How many weeks see a team move from 1.5 behind one team, to 1.5 ahead of everybody, to 1.5 behind a different team?

The big story:  The team's most senior and best pedigreed relievers continued to fail in the 9th inning, raising the question, why are we picking our closers this way, anyway?  A week ago, Betancourt followed nine innings of shutout pitching from Cliff Lee with a three-run, game-losing 10th against Toronto.  A few days later, he appeared ready to repeat the performance against Oakland, loading the bases while attempting to close the door on a three-run victory.  Incredibly, Wedge then pulled his closer — something he refrained from doing in well over a dozen similar situations with Joe Borowski on the mound — in favor of Kobayashi, who had "backed into" his first career save two nights earlier.  Kobayashi loosed a run-scoring wild pitch but slammed the door with two strikeouts — and the controversy was on.  Wedge said several guys might share the closer role until Borowski returns.  Kobayashi was inserted into the next save situation a few nights later and promptly blew the game — bloop single to left, hit-by-pitch, and a three-run walkoff homer to Adam Dunn, who should have been wearing a giant cape with the words "Don't Give This Guy Anything Good To Hit" emblazoned on the back.

Many stupid things have already been written about this, and many more will be written in the coming weeks.  We've already heard the brainless drumbeat starting against closer-by-committee, and no doubt much more will follow.  You will hear that Bill James invented closer-by-committee (not true) and thinks it's a great idea (not true), that the Red Sox tried closer-by-committee a few years back (true) at James' urging (not true), and that that Red Sox bullpen failed (true) because closer-by-committee is such a terrible idea (not true, it was because they didn't have any good relievers).

Mind you, I don't really care for closer-by-committee much myself, but I like dumb, superstitious baseball commentary even less, and for some reason, the Holy Role Of The Closer seems to bring out the village idiots like little else.  As you suffer through it, try to hold firm these simple facts:

• Betancourt has not been steady all season.  When Borowski went on the DL, Betancourt had given up two home runs in his last four games.  In fact, Betancourt's best stretch of the season came in the two weeks immediately following his being annointed the closer — allowing just one single (and that was the only line drive) and one walk over four games.
• Kobayashi, despite a very impressive career in Japan, is an older pitcher who has never established any level of performance, good or bad, in the U.S.  And similar to  Betancourt, he had given up two home runs in the five games preceding his first career Save in the U.S.

So there's no reason to think any of this has anything to do with the 9th inning being "different."  We've got two veteran relievers struggling, getting inconsistent results in any inning — but we also have a number of younger relievers thriving within limited opportunities.   And for whatever it's worth, Betancourt looks to have been extremely unlucky on balls in play (.380 BABIP, compared with .287 career and .240 last season) and is still not giving up any walks (only two unintentional in 72 PA).

In other news:  The starters ended a historic run of more than 44 scoreless innings when Aaron Laffey threw a ball into right field while attempting to field a lame squib in front of the mound — even that it was only an unearned run — leading to the curious ESPN headline, "Indians starter gives up run".  The streak spanned seven days in seven games, and over that span, the Indians entire pitching staff gave up just six runs — aside from Betancourt, only two runs over 62.2 IP, one unearned, with nine pitchers combining for an insane ERA of 0.14.  Over that span, Sabathia and Laffey gave up two runs in 30 innings, and Carmona and Lee pitched 18 scoreless innings in a single day.  Byrd contributed another 7+ scoreless innings, and four relievers contributed six scoreless appearances as well.

Cliff Lee ended his own historic run with his first poor start of the season, allowing more runs in that one start (5) than in his first seven combined (4) and nearly as many extra bases.  Lee's historically good launch to the season got heavy press coverage, and he still leads the AL by a significant margin in both ERA and FIP.

The offense continued to struggle to stop continuing to struggle, but the problem shifted as some hitters showed some at least signs of recovering (Hafner, Garko), others showed at least an up-and-down tendency (Peralta, Dellucci), while still others displayed an increasingly chornic-looking awfulness (Cabrera, Gutierrez).  Jason Tyner was ditched out of a need to summon Jeremy Sowers for a spot start.  Sowers was demoted and replaced the next day by Michael Aubrey, a highly touted prospect around 2004 who has been chronically injured ever since.  Aubrey made contact in every plate appearance and sent his first major league hit over the Cincinnati fence, and to nobody's particular surprise got more playing time than Andy Marte.

Post of the week:  Should we talk about it?

Who fed it:  Despite disappointing results, many Indians had a great week, none moreso than Ben Francisco, who piled up five singles, three doubles and a home run in just 18 at-bats, good for a 1359 OPS.  Sabathia delivered the club's best start of the week and arguably the whole season, a complete-game shutout in which he faced 32 batters, only two of whom even reached second base, in both cases with two outs.  Carmona, Byrd and Laffey each contributed a seven-inning gem, combining to allow only one run, one walk, one HBP and one extra-base hit (a double).  Rafael Perez added four more scoreless appearances and hasn't allowed a run in more than three weeks, spanning 11 games.  Jorge Julio continued his march on the Circle of Trust, retiring all four batters he faced, two on strikeouts; he's now retired 21 of his last 25 batters, allowing just two singles and two walks.  Peralta chose feast over famine with a 1038 OPS, including two doubles and two home runs.  Jason Tyner exceeded our wildest expectations, getting released before he could make our wretched offense any worse.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Tyner.

Who fed it breakdown:  What if Travis Hafner rebuilt his swing and nobody noticed?  With half the week's games in the NL, Hafner had a limited role but still produced a home run and three walks — and in fact, he has a very healthy .318/.483/.545 — that's 1028 — over his ten games, which included seven starts and three pinch-hitting shots.  It's far too soon to announce that he's back, or even to have any real optimism, but considering his OPS was well under 600 for a month of games before that, it's at least an encouraging sign.  Garko, meanwhile, slugged 700 this week with two doubles and two home runs but drew no walks, and he's drawn only two walks in 75 PA over the past four weeks.

Who ate it:  Gutierrez is playing himself out of a job completely, or at least into a significantly reduced role, and this week, he failed to reach base even once in ten trips to the plate, which included five strikeouts and a GIDP.  His OPS for May is 328, and it's just 545 for April and May combined (that is, the whole season except for his heroic Opening Day act on March 31).  Dellucci was also terrible this week, managing just a single in 16 at-bats; he's also having a terrible May (444 OPS) but at least had a good April (871).  Cabrera managed just two singles in 17 at-bats (285 OPS) and is carrying a 492 OPS all the way back to April 6.   Betancourt retired just one batter out of four and ominously did not appear in any other game.  Absolute Worst:  Dellucci.  Relative Worst:  Gutierrez.

Who ate it breakdown:  As noted above, the weakness of our offensive attack was nowhere near as widespread this week as it was at the start of the month — the team hit just .232 and slugged .423, but if you exclude AbaCab, Gutierrez and Dellucci, the other 11 position players hit .278 and slugged .523 — more than respectable.  This is not to prescribe just leaving those three out of the lineup, as this is just a tiny slice of the season.  But it is nice to know that based on this past week's numbers at least, it is possible for us to field a lineup that can produce good numbers.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will be posted later.

The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.

Let's recap two!

via www.fangraphs.com

In spite of some wildness, Fausto Carmona pitched a very efficient shutout in the first game of today's doubleheader. Of course, a cursory look at Fausto's basic stats (3-1, 2.95 ERA) would make you think I had confused him with Paul Byrd, but take a look at his walks and hits, and you'd be puzzled again, in this case how he'd manage that low an ERA in the first place. The Toronto offense has been in a miserable slump - until the 10th inning of the nightcap, they had only scored 1 run in the four-game series. As much as we'd love for the near-domination to be entirely due to the Tribe pitchers, the Toronto offense played a significant role in the Blue Jay offensive brownout. But in a season where he'd often be his own worst enemy, Fausto stayed in the strikezone enough to shorten his innings and finish the game.

AJ Burnett, who had awful career numbers (8.46 ERA in 4 starts) against the Indians, pitched well, keeping the game scoreless into the sixth inning. David Dellucci broke the deadlock in that inning by singling in Grady Sizemore. Burnett stuck around into the eighth, and came within one out of completing the game.

Asdrubal Cabrera accounted for the second and third runs of the game by hitting his first home run of the season. Not counting tonight's action, he's hitting poorly by any standard, but he's playing excellent defense, and more importantly, Josh Barfield isn't exactly pressing the issue. It also bears remembering that Asdrubal is only 22 years old and has just over 300 major-league plate appearances.

via www.fangraphs.com

I guess it would figure that the Indians come back to win a game after the starter barely got through five innings.

Fausto Carmona's frequent walking spells, which would have sent a pitcher with lesser stuff to the minors by now, shortened his outing tonight. Even though the Yankee lineup tends to chew up starters before their normal finishing point, I don't really think it was their patience that forced Fausto out. It was Fausto's mechanics that acted up; like most of his starts, he'd be in the strike zone for several batters at a time, then his pitches would go off the radar. Carmona has now walked 30 batters in almost 40 innings, an astounding number, especially if you consider how low his ERA remains.

Victor Martinez was a late scratch, making Jhonny Peralta (.216/.276/.392) and Ryan Garko (.242/.361/.354) the #3 and #4 hitters. The scary thing is that those were the proper choices, unless you wanted to move Sizemore down. Ben Francisco was in the lineup, just up from Buffalo, not to mention one of Andy Marte's rare appearances. (Side note: If you throw out Jamey Carroll, every one of those in tonight's lineup either made their major-league debut with the Indians or still had rookie eligibility when they debuted with the Indians. And that includes all the pitchers who made appearances in tonight's game as well.)

But despite another shaky outing from Carmona, despite not doing much against Andy Pettitte, the Indians won the game. The offensive production came on two swings of the bat. The first swing was Jhonny Peralta's home run to right-center in the fourth. The second came in the eighth inning off Joba Chamberlain when pinch-hitter David Dellucci flew out to the short porch in right field. Dellucci's home run came after Ryan Garko seemingly let Joba off the hook by weakly flying out when ahead in the count.

For a game in early May, this win was pretty significant. The Indians haven't been the only team struggling early this season, and even with a below-.500 record, they are now just 1.5 games behind the first-place Twins. For all the trials and tribulations April brought, the Indians don't really need to make up much ground.

via www.fangraphs.com

The Indians have been impersonating an NL team for a couple weeks now: bunting early and often, relying on one or two guys to actually hit for power, and praying that the pitching staff gives them a chance to win scoring two or three runs. We can discuss how Rafael Betancourt blew the game in the ninth, but the root cause of this stinking morass of an April starts and ends with the offense. The power isn't there (12th in AL SLG), and the on-base is below average (8th). No regular is slugging over .500, and only three regulars have an OBP over .350. This plodding lineup is currently hitting like light-hitting smallballers, obviously not a good combination.

As to tonight's game, Fausto Carmona didn't pitch that well, but his stuff is such that even when he's not throwing strikes he can get outs by virtue of the movement on his pitches. He's walked, including tonight, 26 in just over 34 innings. How he's only given up 12 runs in those innings is testament to both stuff and luck. And while his stuff should remain consistent, luck won't; allowing that many baserunners, even considering his ability to induce the double play, will eventually catch up to him.

I guess one of the positives of tonight's game was that we got to see Andy Marte again. It took Ryan Garko going into a major slump to get him a start, though.  Counting tonight, he's made 16 plate appearances in 27 team games, which is not doing any interested party any good. Andy doesn't get regular at-bats, he obviously can't go down to AAA (not that that would accomplish anything anyway), so he's in an overwhelmingly difficult position. The front office isn't going to learn anything one way or the other, which will put them in a quandry when they have to make a decision about third base in the offseason.