Catching up time:

6-2-08:

Recalled RHP Tom Mastny from Buffalo (AAA)

Optioned 1B Michael Aubrey to Buffalo (AAA)

Released RHP Jorge Julio (DFAd on 5-28-08)

Even with Travis Hafner going on the DL, Aubrey wasn't going to get any playing time, and even if he did, it would probably be at the expense of Andy Marte. Besides, the Indians needed the extra arm because Jake Westbrook had just come down with a sore elbow.

Jorge Julio, who was DFAd to make room for Jake Westbrook when he originally came off the DL, sealed his fate with his outing against the Rangers on May 23rd (1.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 SO). Mark Shapiro had gone through  this  before, and he understood that if a reliever isn't good and it's the end of May, you cut bait without a second thought.

6-3-08:

Placed RHP Jake Westbrook on the 15-Day Disabled List (right elbow)

Recalled RHP Jensen Lewis from Buffalo (AAA)

As we later found out, that elbow injury will require Tommy John surgery, sidelining Westbrook until at least June of next year. Realistically, the Indians aren't probably going to get Jake at full strength until the end of the 2009 season. It's a big blow to this year's chances, and it creates another 2009 rotation spot to fill.

6-4-08:

Recalled RHP Brian Slocum from Buffalo (AAA)

Purchased the Contract of RHP Rick Bauer (AAA)

Optioned RHP Jensen Lewis and RHP Tom Mastny to Buffalo (AAA)

This was in the midst of the Texas series, and the day after Tom Mastny's 1.1 inning start. The Indians had to use four other relievers, two of which had to go more than two innings. As we'll see shortly, Slocum didn't last long in Cleveland, though Bauer has stuck around to the present day.

Rick Bauer has been in the majors on and off since 2001, when he broke in with Baltimore. After pitching 71 innings for Texas in 2006, he was released by the Rangers at the end of Spring Training of the following year. He split 2007 between the Phillies and Dodgers organizations, and didn't do much to deserve a trip back to the majors during the season. But, as he was healthy and had a history of tolerable major-league relief work, he got a Spring Training invite with the Indians. He started the season as Buffalo's closer, and cut down on his walks, his major weakness.

But Bauer hasn't carried over his success with the Bisons to Cleveland. He's given up 6 runs in 4 innings of work, unfortunately par for the course for this year's bullpen. As soon as another minor-league reliever catches the front offices' attention, he'll be gone.

6-7-08

Signed LHP John Halama to a minor-league contract; Assigned him to Buffalo (AAA)

Last seen in the majors mopping up games for Baltimore in 2006, Halama was pitching in the Atlantic League when the Indians signed him. He's AAA roster filler.

6-8-08

Recalled LHP Jeremy Sowers from Buffalo (AAA)

Optioned RHP Brian Slocum to Buffalo (AAA)

The Indians couldn't bring Sowers up to pitch in Westbrook's spot the start before since he had just started a game in Buffalo. He'll be in the rotation until Fausto Carmona comes off the Disabled List. 

6-9-08

Recalled 2B Josh Barfield from Buffalo (AAA)

Optioned 2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera to Buffalo (AAA)

This was more about Cabrera than Barfield. Asdrubal had certainly defended well enough, but the Indians' lineup couldn't carry a .184/.282/.247 in the lineup, not with everyone else struggling. This was also supposed to be an opportunity for Barfield to try to win back his starting job at second, but...

6-12-08

Placed 2B Josh Barfield on the 15-Day Disabled List (finger)

Placed C Victor Martinez on the 15-Day Disabled List (right elbow)

Transferred Jake Westbrook to the 60-day Disabled List (right elbow)

Purchased the Contracts of C Yamid Haad and IF Jorge Velandia from Buffalo (AAA)

Designed RHP Oneli Perez for Assignment

Victor Martinez had been trying to push through despite a bad hamstring, which explained his Tyner-like power, but the elbow injury finally forced the Indians to shelve Martinez. Apparently he had first injured the elbow a month before, but tried to play through it. An MRI revealed loose bodies in his elbow, which meant surgery and at best six weeks on the DL.

Barfield also had to have surgery, and also will be out for while. Josh strained a ligament in his middle left finger as he checked his swing. Like Martinez, his timetable for return will be 6-8 weeks. It was a really bad time for Josh to go down, since the Indians were committed to having Asdrubal Cabrera spend some time in Buffalo. By the time he returns, the Indians may have traded for a second baseman.

Haad didn't play an inning, as Kelly Shoppach has started every day since his callup, and today was designated for assignment. Velandia has fared slightly better; he's gotten one at-bat. The middle infielder has bounced between the majors and the minors for the last 11 seasons, with all his major-league stints being short. Like with Haad, he's probably here until the Indians can find someone better. Hopefully that won't take long. 

6-17-08

Signed 1B/3B Morgan Ensberg to a minor-league contract; Assigned him to Buffalo (AAA)

Ensberg was dreadful with Yankees, even with getting regular playing time while Alex Rodriguez was on the DL. The signing is a nice gamble for the Indians; at the very least, he'll make the Bisons a better team. Ensberg as late as 2006 hit .235/.396/.463, which would have been one of the best offensive lines on this year's club.

6-19-08

Traded a PTBNL to the Atlanta Braves for The 'Stache

Designated C Yamid Haad for Assignment

With Victor Martinez out until at least late July, the Indians were looking for a better backup because Wyatt Toregas hasn't hit (he was recently demoted to Akron). So they traded a PTBNL (probably nothing or cash) for Sal Fasano, a journeyman backup who should at very least provide the young Indians with the secrets of '70s facial hair.

With all the recent call-ups and send-downs, it's a good time to review the service time for our younger players.  As first discussed in an article a couple years back, service time considerations can play a significant role in determining the exact timing of who gets to play in the majors when, and for how long.  It rarely would play a decisive role, especially for a team in contention, but the Indians keep lots of players hanging around on the bubble — could be up, could be down, no real right or wrong answer — so service time logically becomes a factor.  And in any season in which contending starts to look more like a pipe dream — and we're just about there — service time logically becomes more significant, as compared to an all-out win-right-now approach.

All else being equal — and it rarely is — there are two key events a team would rather delay.  One is free agency, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with at least six full years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player is set up to end seasons with something slightly less than a full year. The other, arguably more important, is arbitration, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with roughly 2.8 years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player (one who is likely to be in the majors most or all of the following year) ends the current season with 125 days or fewer of service time, in addition to any full years he might have accrued already.

Many of our players will be eligible for free agency at the end of the last guaranteed year of their current contracts, whether this year or many years into the future, so we needn't discuss those players here:  Sabathia, Westbrook, Hafner, Byrd, Blake, Martinez, Borowski, Dellucci, Lee, Sizemore, Kobayashi, Peralta, Betancourt, Carroll and Elarton.  Rick Bauer, if he sticks — do we ever get that lucky? — will be eligible for arbitration, but he won't be a free agent until after 2010.  Brendan Donnelly — remember him? — will be a free agent after 2009, if he can make it back to the majors this season.  If not, we will have the option to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, retaining his rights through 2010.  (Other minor leaguers like Todd Linden, Jason Tyner and Jorge Velandia are in similar situations but aren't worth detailing.)

Carmona will not be eligible for free agency if his first club option is declined for 2012, but he will be eligible for arbitration of course.  Carmona ended the 2007 season with 1.169 service time.  (That's one year, plus 169 days — there are 183 days in the major league season, but once a player reaches 172, it counts as a full year.)  Essentially, because the Indians opted for a post-closer-implosion demotion back in 2006, he won't be eligible for free agency until 2013, rather than 2012, and yet he was still going to reach arbitration for 2009 as a Super Two, rather than having to wait until 2010 as a fourth-year player.  The delayed free agency explains in part why the Indians were able to get him to agree to a club option for 2012 rather than another guaranteed year.  On the other hand, his impending Super Two status explains why his salary will shoot into the millions in just the second year of the deal, in contrast with Sizemore and Peralta, who didn't receive that kind of raise until year three of their deals, which were similarly timed.  This stuff is arcane and dry, but it always shows up in the multiyear deals.

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JEREMY SOWERS — 1.012 to start 2008, 1.105 estimated/best-guess to end 2008, 1.125 max to end 2008.  In another piece of cagey roster management, Sowers had spent exactly two days in the majors this season to make his two starts prior to this week, so the most he can finish with this season is 1.125.  That almost certainly avoids Super Two status for 2010, pushing arbitration back to 2011 and free agency to after 2013.

AARON LAFFEY — 0.058 start, 1.040 est., 1.040 max.  In the majors since April 28, Laffey may well reach that maximum 1.040, given the hits our rotation depth has taken.  Still, if Carmona comes back on schedule, don't be surprised if Laffey gets sent down in favor of giving Sowers some extended time in the majors — after all, Sowers' service time is already "optimized," while Laffey's is not.  Laffey would need 41 more days in the minors this season, or 52 days in two different seasons, to push his walk year from 2013 to 2014.  Now on track to reach arbitration for 2011, he'd have to spend about 85 more days in the minors this season, or 96 days across two seasons, to push that back to 2012.

ASDRUBAL CABRERA — 0.055 start, 0.145 est., 1.055 max.  Demoted just this week, Cabrera now has 125 days of service time, but there's a presumption that he'll be in the majors not just for all of 2009 forward, but also for 28 more days in September when rosters expand (or perhaps more like 20 if Buffalo makes the playoffs).  If that's the only time he spends in Cleveland the rest of the season, Cabrera will finish with 153 days, putting him on track as a Super Two for 2011 and free agency after 2014.  If he spends 47 more days in the majors this season, including September, he'll be on track to reach free agency a year earlier, after 2013.  If, on the other hand, he spends the rest of this season in the minors, including September, or 123 days between this season and one other season, he'll fall out of the 2011 Super Two class, reaching arbitration for 2012 and free agency after 2014.

JOSH BARFIELD — 2.000 start, 2.112 est., 2.112 max.  In demoting Barfield to start the season, the Indians pushed his free agency back a year by mid-April.  Having just been called up a week into June, he'll end the year with no more than 2.112 — less than three weeks shy of the arbitration threshold.  This is not entirely a coincidence, a tangible element in the organization's desire to increase his trade value.  Barfield is a valuable trade chip, but his up-and-down track record carries an element of risk.  Keeping him out of arbitration makes him more attractive by reducing risk on the payroll — the Indians can say, essentially, that this player will still be making the minimum in 2009, so if he doesn't work out, the sunk cost is minimal, and if he does work out, the team still keeps the player for three additional seasons.  Of course, the same is true if the Indians keep him.

So basically, for both our pair of soft-tossing lefties and our pair of soft-hitting middle infielders, we have a presently less-shiny guy whose status is totally conducive to keeping him the majors, and a presently more-shiny guy whose status would improve substantially with a little more time in the minors.  Sowers and Barfield are "optimized," while Laffey and Cabrera are tantalizingly close to the thresholds for extending the team's rights.  Moreover, given the youth of the non-optimized, the walk-year seasons that hang in the balance are pretty likely to be valuable ones — in 2014, Laffey will be 29, and Cabrera will be 28.  That extra season under team control will significantly raise the value of each of these guys as an asset — not enough to avoid trading a starter, mind you, but we want it.

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BEN FRANCISCO — 0.071 start, 1.049 est., 1.049 max.  Ben is looking unlikely to be optioned to the minors this season, although as one of the only position players with an option remaining, some combination of a short-term roster crunch and/or a slump could still make it happen.  Assuming he stays all season, he'll accrue 150 days of service time.  (That's 4 in April + 26 in May + 120 from June through September 28), which will put him at 1.049 (71 + 150 = 221, 221 - 172 for the full-year rollover = 49, thus 1.049.)  That will have him reaching free agency after 2013, unless he spends another two months in the minors at some point, which would push it back to after 2014.  He's on track to reach arbitration for 2011, unless he spends another 105 days in the minors at some point, pushing it back to 2012.

Continue reading this post »

(Part 2 in a series ... see Part 1 - the starters.)

July 18, 2006:

Most fans at this point are sick of the entire Indians roster, and who can blame us?  I don't know if everyone on the roster is "on the table" for trades, but a part of me would like to think that there is no option for improving the roster that Shapiro wouldn't consider.  That nobody is untouchable.

In theory, nobody is untouchable.  With the right offer of players and/or money, there is no player in the game who can't be had in a trade.  It's just a question of making the right offer.  So why not consider it?

Funny how we feel exactly the same way, even though the circumstance is very different.  As of that day, in some ways, the Indians had been out of the race for two months — seven games behind the division lead on May 8, 10.5 games behind on May 26, 17 games behind on June 25.  By July 18, the deficit was 21 games, and the Wild Card outlook was hardly any better.  Sabathia spent April on the DL, both Betancourt and Cabrera appeared damaged by the WBC, and if it were possible to make a train out of a sieve and then wreck it, then you'd have a really good metaphor for our infield defense.  We ditched Phllips in favor of Vazquez, but my mid-May we'd already demoted Vazquez in favor of Lou Merloni.

It got real late, real early, but at the same time, the team made the best of that moment's clarity.  Unlike the Expos in 2002 or the Mariners in 2006, we were so clearly out of it that there was no temptation to hope or pretend for another 30 days — not for the players' sake or for the fans.   So there was no reason to make any plays for the current season, and there was a great chance to improve the team's prospects for 2007 and beyond.  We had already traded Eduardo Perez and were on the verge of trading Bob Wickman — deals that eventually produced two key players for the 2007 stretch run.

This season is different.  We have a slightly worse record based on a different combination of failures, but the division and Wild Card races have not run away form the club entirely.  Seven weeks of intermittent struggles left the team improbably in first place, up by 1.5 games, only to fall into a disastrous run of 2-10.  Now 5.5 games behind — but only 5.5 games behind — the Indians are in a division that appears mediocre enough to be won by any decent team, should one emerge.  But can the Indians be that team?  Should we reconfiguring for a drive, or reconfiguring for next season?

Will we decide to be the 2006 Indians again ... or the 2006 Mariners?

RYAN GARKO
$420K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

• PRO - Could be one part of a significant trade — scouts and managers love his grinder approach and mentality, and GM's will love his contract status, which has him still making the minimum in 2009.
  
• PRO - Struggling at 27, he's very unlikely to peak at a level much higher than his 2007 numbers.
  
• PRO - 1B is arguably emerging as a position of depth — Aubrey and Brown may be reasonable options for first base in 2009 and 2010, and they fit better into a C/1B rotation with Martinez and Shoppach.
  
• CON - Young, cheap players with reasonably good production are the lifeblood of a good roster.
  
• CON - Wouldn't clear significant payroll space, now or over the next couple of years.
• CON - Might be selling low on a player who's struggling.
  

ASDRUBAL CABRERA
$393K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

• PRO - Should be recognized as equivalent to an elite prospect, given his track record, and so should get a significant return.  Billy Beane no doubt still very interested.
  
• PRO - Would have greater value to a team without an established shortstop, or with a shortstop in his walk year.
  
• CON - Probable high-quality player and potential impact player over the next six seasons — and cheap.
  
• CON - Weak overall depth in the middle infield.
  
• CON - Best defensive player in the entire organization, with no close second in the majors or high minors, high-leverage asset for a team that may well feature the most extreme groundball rotation of all-time over 2009-2010.
  
• CON - Uncertain long-term viability of Peralta at shortstop.
  
• CON - Hard to imagine a viable trade scenario where trading him wouldn't be a huge mistake.

JHONNY PERALTA
$2.25M salary, signed through 2010, controlled through 2011

• PRO - Presents the best out of all our struggling hitters — shortstop on pace for 33 HR, barely 26, with postseason heroics, under reasonable contract for three more seasons.
  
• PRO - Would be considered a viable 3B option by many teams.
  
• PRO - Would allow team to reconfigure middle infield for better defense in light of groundball-heavy rotation.
• PRO - Likely will be seen by the Indians as merely a reasonable value towards the end of his contract.
• PRO - Not a fan favorite, probably the most significant asset the team could trade while minimizing backlash; local shills would eagerly endorse the deal.
  
• CON - Lack of overall middle-infield depth, likely would have to acquire at least one player (2B) if we traded him.
  
• CON - Unclear if Asdrubal Cabrera will hit well enough to stick in the majors in 2008 or 2009, even if moved to shortstop.
  
• CON - Production possibly can't be replaced at less than twice the price.
  
• CON - Barely 26, likely will bounce back to higher production, and may have a significantly higher peak left in him.
  
• CON - Clutch, generally has been immune from team-wide slumps or postseason pressure.
  
• CON - Would be the first case of trading someone considered to be a core player, unclear how that would affect future dealings.
  

CASEY BLAKE
$6.1M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2008

• PRO - Versatile player with veteran clubhouse rep, apparently considered a clutch performer in some circles, could be considered a significant trade piece in a tight market.
  
• PRO - Unlike in 2006, team has viable major-league options at each of his positions.
• PRO - Despite slump, may well be selling high.
  
• PRO - It's his walk-year anyway, and his $4M in remaining salary is high enough to want it gone, and yet low enough to attract most suitors — and low enough to consider eating it to get superior talent coming back in a deal (a tactic heavily employed by Shapiro in past deals).
  
• PRO - Using Marte at 3B would upgrade the infield defense.
  
• PRO - Would create opportunity to play glut of rookie corner position players — not just Marte, but also Choo, Francisco and Aubrey — and may have no downside in terms of overall production.
  
• CON - Uncertain whether Marte can hit well enough to stay in the majors without being a significant hole in the lineup.
• CON - Overall depth at 3B in particular is not good.
  

ANDY MARTE
$392K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

• PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  
• PRO - Shapiro seems committed to Wedge, and Wedge seems incredibly un-committed to Marte — possibly facts not made public influencing the club's evaluation of the player.
  
• PRO - Some injury history, and despite outstanding track record as a young minor leaguer, has never looked "above" Triple-A pitching, not clear he can hit above replacement level in the majors.
  
• CON - Uncertain what his ceiling is, has never gotten significant opportunity as a major league hitter.
  
• CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
  
• CON - Would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
• CON - Would have to sign a free agent or trade for someone to play 3B in 2009 and possibly 2010, nobody major-league ready at that position.
• CON - Brandon Phillips.

JOSH BARFIELD
$416K/238K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

• PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  
• PRO - Value to team roster would plummet to zero if the team acquired a 2B, which is a logical target to upgrade.  Barfield's bat doesn't work at any other position, and his glove doesn't work as as utility player. 
  
• PRO - Might still be seen as a viable major leaguer by some teams, particularly in the NL.
  
• CON - May well be selling low, as bat/glove may well return to league-average levels given another opportunity — would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
  
• CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
• CON - Weak overall depth in the middle-infield, can't expect help from the minors until 2010 at the earliest.
  

MICHAEL AUBREY
$380/60K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2014

• PRO - Could we convince Billy Beane that he wants Aubrey as much as he wants Cabrera?
  
• PRO - Incredibly persistent injury history, scouts report significantly diminished skills from his heyday as a prospect, has never produced good numbers above Single-A.
• CON - Already has more HR than Victor.
• CON - Is a reasonable option if Garko is traded, fits well into platoon with Martinez and Shoppach.
• CON - Young, cheap, under control for many years, still one option left.

JAMEY CARROLL
$2M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2009

• PRO - Useful player, high-quality defender who could be attractive to a "fat" contender looking to shore up weak depth.
  
• PRO - Not a significant long-term piece.
• PRO - Would create opportunity to work Barfield into a two-position rotation with Cabrera and Peralta, which could be somewhat optimizing.
  
• CON - Weak overall middle-infield depth, would only make it harder to demote Cabrera, as probably is needed.
• CON - Possibly undervalued in trade market, probably as valuable to the Indians as to any team.
  
• CON - It's harder than it looks to find a quality bench/platoon middle infielder — see also Vazquez, Rouse — and Carroll has a perfect, club-friendly contract.
  
• CON - No more sweet baboo.

IN GENERAL:  There's a lot of reason to think about reconfiguring the entire infield.  Garko has been disappointing and never had a high ceiling.  Cabrera's bat doesn't work at 2B.  Peralta has provided high-value production but seems unpredictable, he's fringy at shortstop, and his bat/glove package may not play any better at another position.  As for the others, would anybody really care if they left?

It would seem to behoove the team to make a series of moves aimed at upgrading the infield defense.  Not that it's bad, it's fine overall, but the club likely will get over 200 starts from now through 2010 out of three extreme groundball pitchers, Westbrook, Carmona and Laffey — 260 starts if they're all healthy.  Our best defensive configuration right now is Aubrey, Carroll, Cabrera and Marte — which notably looks nothing like our Opening Day infield.  It also looks notably like our best offensive configuration, but that idea of "best" seems highly questionable at this point.  If the infield's hitting isn't as good as we thought, or even is merely highly uncertain, that too is a reason to start giving defensive issues more consideration.  (Amazingly, Wedge might actually be realizing this himself.)

That provides a rationale for moving even younger players like Garko or Peralta — let alone short-timers like Blake — but the truth is, without those guys, we don't really have the horses.  Shifting guys around still leaves us with projected mediocrity, and worse hitting than before.  We could move Garko with little risk or downside, but moving Blake leaves us a little exposed — and if we move both of them, we'd have to be thinking about getting someone who can play 3B off the bench, either with more glove than Blake or more bat than Carroll, for 2008 and beyond.  As for the middle infield, we can't really trade Peralta without acquiring a substantial second baseman — and if we do that, we might as well ship Barfield out, too.

Ironically, we have a number of players worth trading in the infield, but we're also in the market for infielders who can make a difference.  Infield defense sank the team in 2006, but it could make a huge positive over the next several seasons — and in this one.  There are opportunities here to make a series of moves that improve the team in three ways:  By bringing in a quality player, by replacing a weak player in the lineup, and by shifting one or two others into roles where they can be more valuable.

This week:  3-3 Overall:  22-22 Scoring:  19-16 Old Mood:  4.5 New Mood: 3.4

W L % GB Chicago 23 20 .535 - Cleveland 22 22 .500 1.5 Minnesota 22 22 .500 1.5 Kansas City 21 23 .477 2.5 Detroit 17 27 .386 6.5

The series:  Hosted the Athletics (win, win, win) and visited the Reds (loss, loss, loss).  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  The Indians rode an absurd run of exceptional pitching to the division lead, devastating the A's to cap off an 8-2 run, only then to get swept by the not-really-even-kind-of-good Reds.  How many weeks see a team move from 1.5 behind one team, to 1.5 ahead of everybody, to 1.5 behind a different team?

The big story:  The team's most senior and best pedigreed relievers continued to fail in the 9th inning, raising the question, why are we picking our closers this way, anyway?  A week ago, Betancourt followed nine innings of shutout pitching from Cliff Lee with a three-run, game-losing 10th against Toronto.  A few days later, he appeared ready to repeat the performance against Oakland, loading the bases while attempting to close the door on a three-run victory.  Incredibly, Wedge then pulled his closer — something he refrained from doing in well over a dozen similar situations with Joe Borowski on the mound — in favor of Kobayashi, who had "backed into" his first career save two nights earlier.  Kobayashi loosed a run-scoring wild pitch but slammed the door with two strikeouts — and the controversy was on.  Wedge said several guys might share the closer role until Borowski returns.  Kobayashi was inserted into the next save situation a few nights later and promptly blew the game — bloop single to left, hit-by-pitch, and a three-run walkoff homer to Adam Dunn, who should have been wearing a giant cape with the words "Don't Give This Guy Anything Good To Hit" emblazoned on the back.

Many stupid things have already been written about this, and many more will be written in the coming weeks.  We've already heard the brainless drumbeat starting against closer-by-committee, and no doubt much more will follow.  You will hear that Bill James invented closer-by-committee (not true) and thinks it's a great idea (not true), that the Red Sox tried closer-by-committee a few years back (true) at James' urging (not true), and that that Red Sox bullpen failed (true) because closer-by-committee is such a terrible idea (not true, it was because they didn't have any good relievers).

Mind you, I don't really care for closer-by-committee much myself, but I like dumb, superstitious baseball commentary even less, and for some reason, the Holy Role Of The Closer seems to bring out the village idiots like little else.  As you suffer through it, try to hold firm these simple facts:

• Betancourt has not been steady all season.  When Borowski went on the DL, Betancourt had given up two home runs in his last four games.  In fact, Betancourt's best stretch of the season came in the two weeks immediately following his being annointed the closer — allowing just one single (and that was the only line drive) and one walk over four games.
• Kobayashi, despite a very impressive career in Japan, is an older pitcher who has never established any level of performance, good or bad, in the U.S.  And similar to  Betancourt, he had given up two home runs in the five games preceding his first career Save in the U.S.

So there's no reason to think any of this has anything to do with the 9th inning being "different."  We've got two veteran relievers struggling, getting inconsistent results in any inning — but we also have a number of younger relievers thriving within limited opportunities.   And for whatever it's worth, Betancourt looks to have been extremely unlucky on balls in play (.380 BABIP, compared with .287 career and .240 last season) and is still not giving up any walks (only two unintentional in 72 PA).

In other news:  The starters ended a historic run of more than 44 scoreless innings when Aaron Laffey threw a ball into right field while attempting to field a lame squib in front of the mound — even that it was only an unearned run — leading to the curious ESPN headline, "Indians starter gives up run".  The streak spanned seven days in seven games, and over that span, the Indians entire pitching staff gave up just six runs — aside from Betancourt, only two runs over 62.2 IP, one unearned, with nine pitchers combining for an insane ERA of 0.14.  Over that span, Sabathia and Laffey gave up two runs in 30 innings, and Carmona and Lee pitched 18 scoreless innings in a single day.  Byrd contributed another 7+ scoreless innings, and four relievers contributed six scoreless appearances as well.

Cliff Lee ended his own historic run with his first poor start of the season, allowing more runs in that one start (5) than in his first seven combined (4) and nearly as many extra bases.  Lee's historically good launch to the season got heavy press coverage, and he still leads the AL by a significant margin in both ERA and FIP.

The offense continued to struggle to stop continuing to struggle, but the problem shifted as some hitters showed some at least signs of recovering (Hafner, Garko), others showed at least an up-and-down tendency (Peralta, Dellucci), while still others displayed an increasingly chornic-looking awfulness (Cabrera, Gutierrez).  Jason Tyner was ditched out of a need to summon Jeremy Sowers for a spot start.  Sowers was demoted and replaced the next day by Michael Aubrey, a highly touted prospect around 2004 who has been chronically injured ever since.  Aubrey made contact in every plate appearance and sent his first major league hit over the Cincinnati fence, and to nobody's particular surprise got more playing time than Andy Marte.

Post of the week:  Should we talk about it?

Who fed it:  Despite disappointing results, many Indians had a great week, none moreso than Ben Francisco, who piled up five singles, three doubles and a home run in just 18 at-bats, good for a 1359 OPS.  Sabathia delivered the club's best start of the week and arguably the whole season, a complete-game shutout in which he faced 32 batters, only two of whom even reached second base, in both cases with two outs.  Carmona, Byrd and Laffey each contributed a seven-inning gem, combining to allow only one run, one walk, one HBP and one extra-base hit (a double).  Rafael Perez added four more scoreless appearances and hasn't allowed a run in more than three weeks, spanning 11 games.  Jorge Julio continued his march on the Circle of Trust, retiring all four batters he faced, two on strikeouts; he's now retired 21 of his last 25 batters, allowing just two singles and two walks.  Peralta chose feast over famine with a 1038 OPS, including two doubles and two home runs.  Jason Tyner exceeded our wildest expectations, getting released before he could make our wretched offense any worse.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Tyner.

Who fed it breakdown:  What if Travis Hafner rebuilt his swing and nobody noticed?  With half the week's games in the NL, Hafner had a limited role but still produced a home run and three walks — and in fact, he has a very healthy .318/.483/.545 — that's 1028 — over his ten games, which included seven starts and three pinch-hitting shots.  It's far too soon to announce that he's back, or even to have any real optimism, but considering his OPS was well under 600 for a month of games before that, it's at least an encouraging sign.  Garko, meanwhile, slugged 700 this week with two doubles and two home runs but drew no walks, and he's drawn only two walks in 75 PA over the past four weeks.

Who ate it:  Gutierrez is playing himself out of a job completely, or at least into a significantly reduced role, and this week, he failed to reach base even once in ten trips to the plate, which included five strikeouts and a GIDP.  His OPS for May is 328, and it's just 545 for April and May combined (that is, the whole season except for his heroic Opening Day act on March 31).  Dellucci was also terrible this week, managing just a single in 16 at-bats; he's also having a terrible May (444 OPS) but at least had a good April (871).  Cabrera managed just two singles in 17 at-bats (285 OPS) and is carrying a 492 OPS all the way back to April 6.   Betancourt retired just one batter out of four and ominously did not appear in any other game.  Absolute Worst:  Dellucci.  Relative Worst:  Gutierrez.

Who ate it breakdown:  As noted above, the weakness of our offensive attack was nowhere near as widespread this week as it was at the start of the month — the team hit just .232 and slugged .423, but if you exclude AbaCab, Gutierrez and Dellucci, the other 11 position players hit .278 and slugged .523 — more than respectable.  This is not to prescribe just leaving those three out of the lineup, as this is just a tiny slice of the season.  But it is nice to know that based on this past week's numbers at least, it is possible for us to field a lineup that can produce good numbers.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will be posted later.

This week:  5-2 Overall:  19-19 Scoring:  32-13 Old Mood:  3.1 New Mood:  4.5

W L % GB Minnesota 20 17 .540 - Cleveland 19 19 .500 1.5 Chicago 18 19 .486 2.0 Kansas City 16 21 .432 4.0 Detroit 16 22 .421 4.5

The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Cliff Lee	.706	Rafael Betancourt	-.456
Unassisted Triple Play	.185	Kelly Shoppach	-.149
		Asdrubal Cabrera	-.127

99 years ago, Cleveland shortstop Neal Ball made the first unassisted triple play in AL history. Bill Wambsganss made the second one during the 1920 World Series. And tonight Asdrubal Cabrera made just the 14th unassisted triple play (including postseason) in MLB history. Because so much has to go right, it's an extremely rare play. But everything game together tonight. As mentioned above, the Blue Jays were desperate to score a run, so they put the runners in motion with nobody out. If Asdrubal Cabrera wasn't covering second, Lyle Overbay's line drive would have scored a run, and might have lead to a big inning. But because everything fell into place, Cabrera was in the perfect position to catch the sinking liner, though it wasn't a routine catch. But after he got up with the ball, all that remained was to tag second (to double up Kevin Mench, who took off for third) and tag Marco Scutaro (to double up Marco Scutaro, who had just arrived from first).

And the pitcher who watched Cabrera make three outs behind him? Cliff Lee, who saw his magical start to the 2008 season continue. Even with his Nintendoesque pitching stats, maintaining an ERA under 1.00 requires at least some good fortune. Besides the historic triple play, Franklin Gutierrez made a game-saving diving grab in the ninth to assure Lee of at least a no-decision. But still, Lee threw what normally would have been a shutout, striking out five, walking two, and allowing seven hits in nine innings of work. He wasn't on the top of his game; he had to work himself out of several jams, which in my mind was impressive than his first couple dominant outings. He's now pitching unpredictably, that is, using any of his pitches in any count. Lee's hot streak will inevitably end, but when it does, I don't think this new Lee will entirely disappear.

But despite the rare play and almost as rare pitching streak, Toronto finally broke through and won the game in the tenth. The Jays had had opportunities all game long, but finally capitalized off Rafael Betancourt. Two singles to open the game set the inning up; the second hit Betancourt flush just above his left elbow. After a sacrifice, leading to a intentional walk, Toronto scored the game's first run with a no-doubter sacrifice fly. The game was put away by Aaron Hill's two-run single.

 

Let's recap two!

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Fausto Carmona	.542	Jamey Carroll	-.090
Asdrubal Cabrera	.170	Ben Francisco	-.077
David Dellucci	.134	Casey Blake	-.076

In spite of some wildness, Fausto Carmona pitched a very efficient shutout in the first game of today's doubleheader. Of course, a cursory look at Fausto's basic stats (3-1, 2.95 ERA) would make you think I had confused him with Paul Byrd, but take a look at his walks and hits, and you'd be puzzled again, in this case how he'd manage that low an ERA in the first place. The Toronto offense has been in a miserable slump - until the 10th inning of the nightcap, they had only scored 1 run in the four-game series. As much as we'd love for the near-domination to be entirely due to the Tribe pitchers, the Toronto offense played a significant role in the Blue Jay offensive brownout. But in a season where he'd often be his own worst enemy, Fausto stayed in the strikezone enough to shorten his innings and finish the game.

AJ Burnett, who had awful career numbers (8.46 ERA in 4 starts) against the Indians, pitched well, keeping the game scoreless into the sixth inning. David Dellucci broke the deadlock in that inning by singling in Grady Sizemore. Burnett stuck around into the eighth, and came within one out of completing the game.

Asdrubal Cabrera accounted for the second and third runs of the game by hitting his first home run of the season. Not counting tonight's action, he's hitting poorly by any standard, but he's playing excellent defense, and more importantly, Josh Barfield isn't exactly pressing the issue. It also bears remembering that Asdrubal is only 22 years old and has just over 300 major-league plate appearances.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Aaron Laffey	.115	Ryan Garko	-.016
Victor Martinez	.114	Ben Francisco	-.016
Grady Sizemore	.106

The pitching was excellent again, but this time, the offense was as well. Grady Sizemore lead off the game with a home run, and before the inning was over, the Indians had a 6-0 lead. Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan had no command of his fastball, which for a team that loves fastballs was a very welcome development.

But the twelve-run outburst shouldn't overshadow what Aaron Laffey's performance. Pitching with a huge lead most of the game, Laffey still maintained his game plan of attacking the lower portion of the strike zone. The Indians haven't missed Jake Westbrook, and that isn't demeaning to Jake; Laffey's allowed just 4 earned runs in his three starts.

Asdrubal Cabrera had two hits, but his defense was what stood out tonight. Cabrera, playing at shortstop, made several nice throws going into the hole between short and third. Though Jhonny Peralta playing shortstop makes sense today, Cabrera's the future at the position.

This week:  2-3 Overall:  14-17 Scoring:  15-18 Old Mood:  5.2 New Mood:  3.1

W L % GB Minnesota 16 14 .533 - Chicago 14 16 .467 2.0 Cleveland 14 17 .452 2.5 Kansas City 14 17 .452 2.5 Detroit 14 19 .424 3.5

The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

• Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  
• Betancourt, terrible.
• Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
• Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

• Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  
• Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  
• When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  
• Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
• Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
• Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  
• Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
• Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
• How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
• Could Sowers be on the block soon?
• Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
• Really?

 

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Paul Byrd	.540	David Dellucci	-.248
Asdrubal Cabrera	.479	Rafael Betancourt	-.182
Travis Hafner	.233	Casey Blake	-.152

This was one of those game which would have been devastating had the Indians not won it. Paul Byrd pitched into the eighth inning, allowing no runs. Of course, the Indians only had a one-run lead, but there was only the matter of Rafael Betancourt pitching the ninth. Right?

Well, the run wasn't really due to Betancourt's pitching. Ichiro singled to start the inning, but after that it was the Cleveland defense that pushed the run home. Betancourt first threw a wild pitch, which if you've seen Rafael pitch you'd be shocked at. Then Ichiro attempted to steal third, and Victor Martinez got off a good throw. Too bad we'll never know if he would have thrown Ichiro out or not, since Casey Blake didn't catch the throw. The ball went down the third base line, and just like that the game was tied. Victor's feed was slightly off-center, and Blake tried to catch and tag in the same motion. Even if Ichio is safe, he's still on third, and given how both offenses hit, it was not a given that they'd get the runner in with less than two outs.

So the game went to extra innings. Enter Masa Kobayashi, who on the first pitch of the inning grooved a fastball to Richie Sexson, Now the Indians were down 2-1, and Seattle closer JJ Putz started to warm in the bullpen. The same guy who lead baseball in WXRL  last season (Betancourt was second). As it turned, it wasn't a good game to be a very good reliever, for Putz struck out Travis Hafner to start the inning, but then allowed three straight base runners to load the bases. Then he walked Grady Sizemore to force in a run and the tie the game. He struck out Casey Blake and David Dellucci to extend the game, though.

The Indians won the game in the eleventh in a similar fashion off of Mark Lowe and Sean Green. After Victor Martinez flied out, Jhonny Peralta walked, Travis Hafner doubled against the no-doubles defense, and Jamey Carroll reached via a HBP. This time, however, the big play came with two outs. Franklin Gutierrez struck out, leaving everyone to gnash their teeth at the probability that the Indians would leave the bases loaded again. But Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single to right and those depressing thoughts evaporated quickly away.