via www.fangraphs.com

So here you had two teams playing out the string on a disappointing season, and lo, two-thirds of the way through the game a memorable contest broke out. 

Gary Sheffield bears all the credit for starting the excitement. After he was hit  by a Carmona pitch in the seventh, he stared at Carmona all the way to first, his bat still in hand. Carmona ratcheted things up by throwing to first, and Sheffield charged the mound. Fausto didn't back down, put Sheffield in a headlock, and got several blows in before being separated.

The Tigers pulled ahead 5-2 in the eighth, but the Detroit bullpen let the Indians back into it in the bottom of the inning. The critical mistake was walking Ben Francisco with two outs to bring the tying run to the plate in Shin-Soo Choo. Choo may have been the matchup on paper for left-hander Casey Fossum, but not if you take into account how well Choo is playing. He's hitting .344/.423/.639 since the All-Star Break, and a very good .853 OPS against left-handers. So when Fossum hung a breaking ball inside to Choo, he didn't miss it, tying the game with a three-run homer to right-center.

One inning later, the Indians finished off the Tigers. Kelly Shoppach was hit by a pitch to open the inning. After Travis Hafner struck out swinging at high fastballs, Ryan Garko singled to right field, chasing pinch-runner Josh Barfield to third. Jamey Carroll then "singled" over the head of a drawn-in Magglio Ordonez to drive in the winning run and cap a game that had no business taking place between two also-rans in the last two weeks of the season.

Of course. Sheffield was his typical self after the game:

"This is the third time," Sheffield said, though it wasn't immediately apparent what the third might be. "Like I said, three strikes, you're out. And if there's a fourth, it gets more violent, trust me."

For the record, Carmona has hit Sheffield twice this season. And I doubt either was intentional.

"He called me out," Sheffield said. "If you call me out, I answer the call."

Sure, Gary. You may not have placed the call, but you picked up the phone on the first ring.

Sheffield was particularly upset at Martinez, whose act, Sheffield said, "is tired."

"All this macho stuff -- throwing the equipment off," Sheffield said. "Trust me, you don't want any of me."

Given what actually happened on the mound last night, he probably doesn't want any more of Carmona. And it's pretty humorous that Sheffield would critcize anyone in baseball for "macho stuff," for he was the one who stared at Carmona, carried his bat to first, and charged the mound.

Sheffield didn't direct his anger just at Martinez.

"I saw the tape," he said. "I know who they are and I guarantee you they'll have to deal with me."

The sooner the better, because given the way his career is going, he probably won't have a lot of chances left to get even.

First in a meandering series on the state of the Indians.

The Indians arrived home in early July after an 0-8 road trip. CC Sabathia had already been traded, Jake Westbrook was out for the season, and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez wouldn't be back for another two months. The stage seemed set for an excruciating last half of the season, tempered only by Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore's respective runs at postseason awards.

Except that that painful second half didn't happen. The Indians are making a run at .500 after being 16 games below it on July 10th, and the root causes of the second half success portend a much brighter future than any of us thought in early July.

(in no particular order)

Jhonny Peralta. After a decent first half, Peralta turned it on after the All-Star Break, hitting .306/.363/.472. His plate coverage and batting eye improved dramatically since his early season struggles, giving the Indians at least one productive infielder.

Kelly Shoppach. In his first chance to play regularly, Shoppach has been one of the best offensive - and heck, all-around - catchers in the American League. His weaknesses are obvious, but as he's gotten regular reps, he's hit the ball with power to all fields. Even if he remains with the Indians, he's not going to be used as a typical backup any more. I think the Indians can put both he and Victor Martinez in the lineup, solving one infield problem for next season.

Shin-Soo Choo. Ben Francisco has been productive for a longer period, but Choo's play has to me been much more impressive. He's gotten on base at a .396 clip and slugged .535, with most of his at-bats coming after the All-Star Break. He took full advantage of his last chance with the Indians, and the Indians as a result probably won't pursue an outfielder in the off-season.

Asdrubal Cabrera. After Asdrubal came back from the minors, he was given regular playing time thanks to Josh Barfield's injury. And he took advantage of the second chance, hitting .303/.393/.439. He changed his stance to adjust to inside strikes, laid off inside balls, and started to crank out extra-base hits. His prime is several years away, but he's already a productive major-league starter.

Because of the above successes, the Indians can concentrate their off-season resources on just a couple areas of need instead of having to make wholesale changes. There are still major questions with this team, including the long-term health of Travis Hafner, the mechanics of Fausto Carmona, and the bullpen. But a 2009 rebound seems a lot more plausible thanks in part to these second-half turnarounds.

The series:  Visited Texas (win, loss, win, loss) and Detroit (win, loss, loss, win), hosted Minnesota (win, loss, win) and San Diego (win, loss, win).

But first, an editorial note:  This piece and the two that will follow pick up the threads of the Week In Review series that ran here for the first nine weeks of the season.  Since the last installment on June 2, the season has changed dramatically.  I never lost interest in keeping up with Week In Review, but I had to put it on hold because of other significant demands on my time.  I love this format, but it is frankly a bit time-consuming to put these together  Going back to do piecemeal recaps at this point may seem like an odd idea, but it's something I've decided to do for all the same reasons I started doing the Week In Review — to give the season a little more clarity and structure, to put it into chapters.

At any given moment, we tend to be viewing the season mostly in two timeframes — the first being the last 48 hours, today's game and maybe yesterday's, and the whole season cumulatively from the beginning.  The most accessible stats we look at reinforce this point of view — all the main stat pages are showing season-to-date, and we check out the box score to see what happened.  In doing so, we miss a lot of the ebb and flow of the season for the team, and especially for individual players.  We patch together vague narratives later on, much of it from inaccurate memories — "Peralta was blocked by Cora," "Francisco was amazing last year" — only occasionally making note of anything in a context larger than a day or two, and missing many in-season developments entirely.

I starting writing these Reviews to see better the season that was developing for each individual player, and I'm as interested as ever in doing that.   The first nine installments focused not so much on an exact week as on two series, or six to eight days.  This installment and the next will each focus on a two-week, four-series period.  The one after that will cover three series, ending at the All-Star break, today.  I believe I will go with the three-series format for the second half of the season; in general, the format has seemed still a little too micro to really see trends well.  We'll see how it develops — and I apologize in advance if the dissection is depressing.

The big story:  The Indians' injury problems went from bad to worse, led by the startling news on June 2 that Jake Westbrook would be returning to the DL just days after making a solid return to the rotation.   By June 7, the news got much worse — Westbrook would undergo Tommy John surgery, missing not only the rest of the 2008 season but as much as half of the 2009 season as well.  Westbrook had signed a three-year contract extension in March 2007, at $33 million the largest contract ever awarded by the Indians at the time.  He ran into injury problems almost immediately but returned last July with a huge flourish, finishing with the fifth-most innings pitched and seventh-lowest ERA in the league in the second half.  Coming into 2008, we were regaled with reports of a new pitch and improved velocity, and scouts wondered aloud if the sinkerballer might take his game to a higher level at age 30.  Westbrook did pitch well in April, but his injury dashed completely all those raised expectations, and the Indians have now lost his services for solidly half of that new contract's three years.

In other news:  Asdrubal Cabrera mercifully and belatedly was demoted to Triple-A, where he probably should have started the season, and where he almost certainly would have started the season had he not gone an improbable tear after being promoted into the heat of the 2007 pennant race.  His demotion created an opportunity for Josh Barfield — our erstwhile and bored/untalented second baseman, who certainly had not been forcing the club's hand with his Triple-A performance (.255/.297/.382, 4.7% walk rate).  Barfield responded by going 0-for-6 — he put the ball in play all six times, so you could argue he was just unlucky — before breaking his finger, giving him a very well-paid trip to the big-league DL.

That same day, Victor Martinez was also put on the DL — also mercifully and also belatedly, in that he'd been hitting terribly for nearly six weeks and (let's all say it together) hadn't hit a home run all season.  Three role players emerged and not only filled the shoes of the injured players, but far exceeded the production we'd been getting from those players before they went on the DL.  Shoppach, Carroll and the newly healthy Shin-Soo Choo — essentially taking over playing time from Martinez, Cabrera/Barfield and Hafner — each posted an OPS of 1000 or better over these 14 games.  Reliever Rick Bauer, catcher Yamid Haad and infielder Jorge Velandia, previously known to Indians fans as guys they'd never heard of, joined the big-league roster to play dominoes with Marte.

We drafted some guys with really interesting names — Chisenhall and Cord,  "Jeremie Tice" and "David Roberts" — and though our first three picks were age 19, 17 and 20 on draft day, some people still screamed that the Indians were being "too safe" or "wrong" or "not adhering to Baseball America rankings" — or something or other.  Experts, experts everywhere, whatever are we to make of all of this expertise?

Back in the majors, in general, the pitching slumped and was uncharacteristically carried by the offense in these series.  So while the pitchers posted a 5.68 ERA, including a few critical late-inning blowups by the bullpen, the hitters amazingly posted the feel-good, Garko-in-a-good-year line of .294/.364/.468.  That 1,088-run pace allowed the team to tread water over a period in which the rest of the AL Central was essentially doing the same — Minnesota and KC dropped a few games but held their places in the standings, while the other three clubs each won eight.  The AL Central was still very winnable, and if you squinted enough, you could still see a bruised-but-not-beaten Indians club actually winning it.

(Who fed it and Who ate it are after the jump.)

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With all the recent call-ups and send-downs, it's a good time to review the service time for our younger players.  As first discussed in an article a couple years back, service time considerations can play a significant role in determining the exact timing of who gets to play in the majors when, and for how long.  It rarely would play a decisive role, especially for a team in contention, but the Indians keep lots of players hanging around on the bubble — could be up, could be down, no real right or wrong answer — so service time logically becomes a factor.  And in any season in which contending starts to look more like a pipe dream — and we're just about there — service time logically becomes more significant, as compared to an all-out win-right-now approach.

All else being equal — and it rarely is — there are two key events a team would rather delay.  One is free agency, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with at least six full years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player is set up to end seasons with something slightly less than a full year. The other, arguably more important, is arbitration, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with roughly 2.8 years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player (one who is likely to be in the majors most or all of the following year) ends the current season with 125 days or fewer of service time, in addition to any full years he might have accrued already.

Many of our players will be eligible for free agency at the end of the last guaranteed year of their current contracts, whether this year or many years into the future, so we needn't discuss those players here:  Sabathia, Westbrook, Hafner, Byrd, Blake, Martinez, Borowski, Dellucci, Lee, Sizemore, Kobayashi, Peralta, Betancourt, Carroll and Elarton.  Rick Bauer, if he sticks — do we ever get that lucky? — will be eligible for arbitration, but he won't be a free agent until after 2010.  Brendan Donnelly — remember him? — will be a free agent after 2009, if he can make it back to the majors this season.  If not, we will have the option to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, retaining his rights through 2010.  (Other minor leaguers like Todd Linden, Jason Tyner and Jorge Velandia are in similar situations but aren't worth detailing.)

Carmona will not be eligible for free agency if his first club option is declined for 2012, but he will be eligible for arbitration of course.  Carmona ended the 2007 season with 1.169 service time.  (That's one year, plus 169 days — there are 183 days in the major league season, but once a player reaches 172, it counts as a full year.)  Essentially, because the Indians opted for a post-closer-implosion demotion back in 2006, he won't be eligible for free agency until 2013, rather than 2012, and yet he was still going to reach arbitration for 2009 as a Super Two, rather than having to wait until 2010 as a fourth-year player.  The delayed free agency explains in part why the Indians were able to get him to agree to a club option for 2012 rather than another guaranteed year.  On the other hand, his impending Super Two status explains why his salary will shoot into the millions in just the second year of the deal, in contrast with Sizemore and Peralta, who didn't receive that kind of raise until year three of their deals, which were similarly timed.  This stuff is arcane and dry, but it always shows up in the multiyear deals.

JEREMY SOWERS — 1.012 to start 2008, 1.105 estimated/best-guess to end 2008, 1.125 max to end 2008.  In another piece of cagey roster management, Sowers had spent exactly two days in the majors this season to make his two starts prior to this week, so the most he can finish with this season is 1.125.  That almost certainly avoids Super Two status for 2010, pushing arbitration back to 2011 and free agency to after 2013.

AARON LAFFEY — 0.058 start, 1.040 est., 1.040 max.  In the majors since April 28, Laffey may well reach that maximum 1.040, given the hits our rotation depth has taken.  Still, if Carmona comes back on schedule, don't be surprised if Laffey gets sent down in favor of giving Sowers some extended time in the majors — after all, Sowers' service time is already "optimized," while Laffey's is not.  Laffey would need 41 more days in the minors this season, or 52 days in two different seasons, to push his walk year from 2013 to 2014.  Now on track to reach arbitration for 2011, he'd have to spend about 85 more days in the minors this season, or 96 days across two seasons, to push that back to 2012.

ASDRUBAL CABRERA — 0.055 start, 0.145 est., 1.055 max.  Demoted just this week, Cabrera now has 125 days of service time, but there's a presumption that he'll be in the majors not just for all of 2009 forward, but also for 28 more days in September when rosters expand (or perhaps more like 20 if Buffalo makes the playoffs).  If that's the only time he spends in Cleveland the rest of the season, Cabrera will finish with 153 days, putting him on track as a Super Two for 2011 and free agency after 2014.  If he spends 47 more days in the majors this season, including September, he'll be on track to reach free agency a year earlier, after 2013.  If, on the other hand, he spends the rest of this season in the minors, including September, or 123 days between this season and one other season, he'll fall out of the 2011 Super Two class, reaching arbitration for 2012 and free agency after 2014.

JOSH BARFIELD — 2.000 start, 2.112 est., 2.112 max.  In demoting Barfield to start the season, the Indians pushed his free agency back a year by mid-April.  Having just been called up a week into June, he'll end the year with no more than 2.112 — less than three weeks shy of the arbitration threshold.  This is not entirely a coincidence, a tangible element in the organization's desire to increase his trade value.  Barfield is a valuable trade chip, but his up-and-down track record carries an element of risk.  Keeping him out of arbitration makes him more attractive by reducing risk on the payroll — the Indians can say, essentially, that this player will still be making the minimum in 2009, so if he doesn't work out, the sunk cost is minimal, and if he does work out, the team still keeps the player for three additional seasons.  Of course, the same is true if the Indians keep him.

So basically, for both our pair of soft-tossing lefties and our pair of soft-hitting middle infielders, we have a presently less-shiny guy whose status is totally conducive to keeping him the majors, and a presently more-shiny guy whose status would improve substantially with a little more time in the minors.  Sowers and Barfield are "optimized," while Laffey and Cabrera are tantalizingly close to the thresholds for extending the team's rights.  Moreover, given the youth of the non-optimized, the walk-year seasons that hang in the balance are pretty likely to be valuable ones — in 2014, Laffey will be 29, and Cabrera will be 28.  That extra season under team control will significantly raise the value of each of these guys as an asset — not enough to avoid trading a starter, mind you, but we want it.

BEN FRANCISCO — 0.071 start, 1.049 est., 1.049 max.  Ben is looking unlikely to be optioned to the minors this season, although as one of the only position players with an option remaining, some combination of a short-term roster crunch and/or a slump could still make it happen.  Assuming he stays all season, he'll accrue 150 days of service time.  (That's 4 in April + 26 in May + 120 from June through September 28), which will put him at 1.049 (71 + 150 = 221, 221 - 172 for the full-year rollover = 49, thus 1.049.)  That will have him reaching free agency after 2013, unless he spends another two months in the minors at some point, which would push it back to after 2014.  He's on track to reach arbitration for 2011, unless he spends another 105 days in the minors at some point, pushing it back to 2012.

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Now it's time to trade the outfielders, and it's not an easy task to figure out who should stay and who should go. Besides the one guy.

GRADY SIZEMORE

$3.0M salary, signed through 2011, controlled through 2012 (team option)

PRO: ...

CON: Sizemore is one of the most valuable players in baseball, taking into account age, ability, upside, consistency, contract status, and (dare I say the words) intangible value. Trading him at this moment would be franchise suicide.

CON: OK, let's get specific. Grady Sizemore is in his Age 25 season, and he's already had three full seasons under his belt. His career OPS+ is 124, and his lowest full season OPS+ is 122. His on-base percentage has increased each season. He's gradually become a better base stealer as his young career has unfolded. That's on top of the things that have pretty much been there from day one: his defense, and his power. He's just starting to enter his prime, that period where his power should mature while he's still young and athletic enough to be a terror on the bases and a vacuum cleaner in the field. And the Indians have him under control for most of that period.

FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ

$404K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

PRO: Because of the guy I just mentioned, Gutierrez is a right fielder with the Indians. Other teams will think of him as a plus center fielder with a very good arm, and won't care as much about his offense. And as Gutierrez is several years from getting expensive, he's that much more valuable to clubs with a hole in center.

PRO: He's not hitting enough to start in right field, so the Indians might be better off getting center fielder value out of him by trading him. The only problem is that he may be the best right fielder in the system right now....

CON: The Indians don't exactly have a surplus of power-hitting outfielders to replace Gutierrez, and would see a huge drop-off in outfield defense no matter who'd they plug in.

CON: Still only 25, and hasn't really had consistent playing time until this year. The power potential is there, and the defense is good enough to keep him in the lineup even if he isn't hitting. And even if he doesn't hit, he'd still be a fine fourth outfielder for the next couple years.

SHIN-SOO CHOO

$383K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

PRO: Kind of redundant, with Ben Francisco being the better hitter and Franklin Gutierrez the better fielder.

PRO: Not a center fielder, and would have to be platooned if he does play regularly. From a tactical standpoint, it makes sense to play him in right field to take advantage of his arm, but Gutierrez has a better arm, not to mention range. Of the outfielders mentioned here, he's the one the Indians would miss the least.

CON: He's relatively young (25) and cheap, and that's worth a lot to a team that suddenly has a lot of big contracts on the Disabled List.

BEN FRANCISCO

Minimum salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

PRO: As with a lot of his young outfield brethren, Francisco would fetch a lot of interest because of his low service time. But Francisco has a more consistent track record of hitting through the minors and his little time in the majors. He would be very enticing to a team looking for an offense-first corner outfielder.

CON: If Francisco played for another team, don't you think we'd be clamoring for him? During the offensive blackout in May, Francisco was one of the few in the lineup who consistently hit for power. That he's hitting second or third in the lineup just weeks after his callup says volumes about the 2008 offense.

CON: Even though there isn't much upside to his game and his defense is decent at best, the Indians don't have any better options at the corners right now.

DAVID DELLUCCI

$3.75M, signed through 2009, controlled through 2009 (free agent)

PRO: Francisco has outclassed him at the plate, and Dellucci's defense (especially his arm) has always been a liability.

PRO: His contract isn't an albatross, but it'd be nice to free up $4M for next year.

PRO: Is 34, and corner outfielders who rely mostly on power don't age well.

CON: Is a great guy in the clubhouse, which shouldn't be completely ignored.

CON: With Travis Hafner on the DL, he's a good fit as the DH; the Indians can put his power in the lineup without worrying about other teams running on his arm.

TRAVIS HAFNER

$8.05M, signed through 2012, controlled through 2013 (team option)

PRO: Offensive game has withered away in the space of a year, and physically can't play the field beyond a game or two at a time.

PRO: A Hafner who can't hit obviously won't be worth the $57M contract he signed last season.

PRO: Has a limited no-trade clause in that extension, so it will be more difficult to deal him the longer he's not hitting.

CON: The offensive struggles could be a least in part related to a shoulder injury, so he could regain at least a portion of his prowess after his shoulder has recovered.

CON: Hafner made a commitment to stay in Cleveland instead of electing  free agency; dealing him so soon after signing the extension wouldn't exactly send a good message to those on the team who are making decisions about free agency.

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (loss, win, loss) and visited the Royals (win, loss, loss).  Blah.  Went 2-4.  Blah.  With a 4.25 ERA.  Blah.  Scored four runs per game.  Blah.  Hit .243/.318/.435.  Blah.  Not the worst you've ever seen, just.  Blah.  Certainly not at all good either, though.  Blah.

The big story:  As outright awfulness receded into mere malaise, word finally started to leak out that the respective collapses of two of the Indians' best hitters, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, probably owe more to injuries than to anything else.  In retrospect, the profundity of Hafner's problems this season never really made all that much sense as a simple collapse of skills, and there is no real precedent for a hitter's version of Steve Blass Disease.  Still, perhaps because of our habitual fatalism, Indians fans never much figured Hafner was injured, so much so that when he was finally placed on the DL this past Friday, many fans speculated that the injury was phony, merely an excuse to make room on the roster for another player while Hafner was sent away to clear his head for a while.

The Indians told local media that Hafner would be available to play first base during Interleague play, and then he wasn't.  The Indians told local media nothing about Joe Borowski's triceps strain, counting on them to not even notice a substantial drop in velocity, let alone write about it.  And until this weekend, the Indians said nothing about Hafner's shoulder being a significant problem, and they never mentioned that it was probably Victor's hamstring that had hamstrung his power, again counting on them not to notice or report it.  Local media was shocked — shocked! — that the team had not been more forthcoming about those injuries, apparently forgetting that the team said nothing in 2006 about Victor playing half the season with a broken toe, or that they already knew that Jhonny Peralta had a vision problem.

Injuries happen, and players try to play through them, and sometimes teams know, and sometimes teams agree to let the player try.  Knowledge about injuries represents a competitive advantage in many sports, and since MLB is not yet dominated by gambling as some pro sports are, reporting requirements are meager.  Socker sniffed, "A credibility gap is developing between the Indians and the local media ... I find it difficult to believe that people in authority at Progressive Field think it serves their purpose to create an aura of distrust between the team and the media."  (Does he really not see this as a self-condemnation, as he implies that he has nothing to report if the team doesn't spoon-feed it to him?)

These developments bring little solace to Indians fans, as players sometimes don't heal in the course of one season, and sometimes they don't heal at all.  All it does is lend a small light of understanding on the widespread offensive collapse.  We've got young hitters struggling in their first full season (Gutierrez, Cabrera), streaky mediocrity from a few veterans (Blake, Dellucci), two of our best hitters playing hurt (Martinez, Hafner), and unsteady results from two more (Peralta, Sizemore) — oh, now I get it.  That leaves us with only one everday player totally sucking without even a halfway-decent explanation (Garko), and the slow-head-shaking resignation that all this crap apparently really can happen to one lineup in one season.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook returned to the rotation with a reasonably solid start, retiring the first 12 batters of the game before succumbing to a series of line-drive hits in the 5th.  Craig Breslow was claimed off waivers by the Twins, and Jorge Julio was designated for assignment to make room for Westbrook.  Hafner's trip to the DL was timed to make room on the roster for Shin-Soo Choo who returned from the DL to play his first big-league game in over a year.  Hafner's absence prompted Wedge to start utilizing his players in more of a rotation, sharing time fairly evenly among Gutierrez, Blake, Aubrey, Choo, Francisco and even Marte.  Adam Miller's finger gave us the finger once again, apparently for the entire season.  Oh, and I guess there was this "triple-steal" thing, supposedly.  Whatever.  We scored a run on that play, which seemed like pretty big news, but on the other hand, we didn't drive in that run, and that didn't seem like news at all.  Blah.

Post of the week:  Looking for nominations as always ...

Who fed it:  Just when we least expected it, Frankie Gutierrez had a huge week in limited playing time, hitting for average (.357), getting on base (five hits, two walks and a HBP) and flashing that enticing power/speed combination with a home run, a triple, and more than one spectacular play in the field.  Peralta had another huge week (1093) and after almost three weeks of hot hitting is on pace for more than 30 home runs.   Blake (1012) and Dellucci (953) were both highly productive in four starts each, and both were bouncing back from substantial two-week slumps (523 and 411).  Sizemore (948) had his worst two games of the year in the past week but still banged out three home runs and a triple; he's basically stayed hot for six weeks solid (947 after May 12).  Masa bounced back from some rough outings last week with two scoreless innings.  Absolute Best:  Peralta.  Relative Best:  Gutierrez.

Who fed it breakdown:  Very slim pickings for standout pitching performances this week, but I'll go with Perez; he gave up one earned run, and one unearned, in the second of his three appearances this week, but those runs were fluke crap, not at all his fault.  He faced 14 batters and induced six grounders and five strikeouts, allowing no walks and just one line drive for a single.  Borowski, meanwhile, allowed three line drives and eight fly balls — eight looooooooooooong fly balls — and, miraculously, no runs on no walks and three hits.  Just ask my shorts.

Who ate it:  Francisco cruelly fell back to earth this week (458), slugging just .208 while drawing more walks (three) in his last 19 PA than he had in his first 82 PA this season (two) — in both respects, possibly a sign that pitchers have started to pitch him more carefully.  Aubrey also struggled (322) to maintain his hot start, getting just one single in his last 11 AB en route back to Buffalo.  Garko's pathetic week (2-for-13, double, 2 BB, 498) was remarkably similar to his prior pathetic week (2-for-11, 2 BB, 490), or for that matter to his whole pathetic last six weeks (.186/.259/.299).  Paul Byrd coughed up 9 ER over 11 IP, and while he walked only one of the 50 batters he faced, he ominously struck out only one as well.  Absolute Worst:  Francisco.  Relative Worst:  Aubrey.

Who ate it breakdown:  As has become the norm over the last few month, Victor was mediocre but not notably awful over the past week, hitting .261/.292/.348.  The real depths of his problems show up over multiple weeks, however, as his line over the past month is .222/.273/.272.  In 88 PA, he's got only four extra base hits — all doubles, of course — and only three non-intentional walks.  It's become a serious breakdown.  Although leading the majors in batting average just three weeks ago, Victor's contributions at the plate have seriously collapsed.  Deepening that black hole in the lineup has been Shoppach, who is just 3-for-31 over the past month while inconsistently filling in for Victor, with two walks and no extra-base hits.

This will be a little different than the first three installments, because prospects are a little different than major league players.  My sense is that major league teams are much more consistent in how they evaluate major league players than they are minor league players.  Guys in the majors have a longer track record of performance and inherently less risk since they are already at the major league level.  Players in the minors, especially the further they are from the big leagues, have shorter performance records and much more risk of completely crapping out (indeed, for players in lower levels, a great likelihood of crapping out).  Major league teams vary considerably, however, into how they balance scouting, performance, and projection of minor league players, and thus their value is more volatile.  One team may value a player highly, another may be sure he'll bust out long before he reaches the bigs.  As such, the value of prospects in trades is more difficult to ascertain.  I'm going to make a few generalizations beforehand:

• Players closer to the majors (AAA and AA) generally have more trade value because the risk associated with them is much lower
• Among lower minor players, the valuation of players will be more variable, but except for those guys given the "blue-chip" label, most guys aren't going to have much trade value because of the gap between where they are at and the major league
• The Indians don't have any "blue-chip" prospects (this does not mean the Indians system is "bad").  Adam Miller used to be one and might still have blue-chip stuff, but injuries have removed that label.  Chuck Lofgren was on the brink of blue-chip status two years ago, but his development has stalled out with control issues in Akron.  Again, he's still young enough to turn it around, but his trade value is not what it probably once was (or could have been).  Nick Weglarz might be a blue-chip prospect by the end of the season, but is too far-away right now.  Beau Mills still has something of a blue-chip after-sheen lingering from last year's draft, but hasn't claimed that title yet in the minors.
• Minor league relievers don't have much value unless they are (a) close to the majors, and (b) really, really dominant
• Because of the reasons outlined above my list will be weighted towards guys in Buffalo andAkron and will be divided simply into guys with value and guys with marginal value.  To put these into perspective, when we tradedColon to the Expos, Brandon Philips was a prospect with value (a real "blue-chipper").  Sizemore was a guy with marginal value who the Indians correctly (or luckily) identified as a guy with real potential value, but still quite far from the bigs.

Guys with Value

Jordan Brown
Professional Seasons (including current)/Current Level/Age: 4/AAA/24

• PRO – Garko's still under our control for awhile and a guy like Beau Mills, who is a likely 1B, has a higher projected ceiling
• PRO – coming off consecutive league-MVPs at Kinston andAkron, perhaps raising his value among certain evaluators
• CON – Brown could in some circumstances be a major league contributor this year given out lack of production at all the offensive corners

Shin-Soo Choo
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 8/MLB/25

• PRO – we've got a lot of almost good corner outfielders about the same age/status as Choo already
• PRO – Choo looks like he's best used as a strict platoon player

• PRO – Trading Choo frees up a 25-man and 40-man roster spot

• CON – Choo's value, coming off a serious injury, is probably at a low

Wes Hodges
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 3/AA/23

• PRO – Hodges got off to a hot start and has a big school pedigree coming out of Georgia Tech
• CON – Casey Blake is our 3B, the organization has shown little confidence in Andy Marte, and we don't have a 3B prospect inBuffalo.  This makes Hodges our closest to the bigs 3B in the minors.

Beau Mills
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 2/A+/21

• PRO – His professional track record is still short enough that his value is buoyed by his impressive college numbers and scouting evaluation, which projects him as a legit major-league power corner infield bat
• CON – Can't be traded till after the June draft under any circumstances
• CON – He's our best power prospect and one of only two in our system (along with Weglarz, see below)

Nick Weglarz
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 4/A+/20

• PRO – He's Canadian
• PRO – We might forever lose Andrew as a Tribe fan
• CON – We might forever lose Andrew as a Tribe fan
• CON – Weglarz value as a prospect is just beginning to develop and, with decent odds, will increase considerably over the next 1-2 seasons

Adam Miller
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 6/AAA/23

• PRO – We have the best starting pitching in the majors right now
• PRO – We have a lot of minor league starting pitching depth
• CON – We'll have at least two rotation spots to fill next year and Miller probably still remains a candidate for one of them (although the latest injury might put that in doubt).  This CON will hold for every starting pitcher at the AA/AAA level.
• CON – Coming off and going into injuries, Miller's value probably is not equal to his pitching "stuff"

David Huff
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 3/AA/23

• PRO – How many soft-tossing lefties does one organization need?
• CON – He's our best close, but-not-yet in the majors starting pitcher right now as well as our likely 6th man next year (assuming Laffey and Sowers fill the spots vacated by CC and Byrd)

Chuck Lofgren
Professional Seasons/Current Level/Age: 5/AA/22

• PRO – Lofgren's young enough and has shown enough (maybe) flashes of good pitching this season to still have decent value
• CON – Lofgren's like the Cliff Lee of minor-league pitching prospects in the Indians system: fantastic stuff, a lot of early success followed by stagnation and control issues, the potential to still put it all together into something very good

Guys with Marginal Value

Wyatt Toregas:

• PRO – his defense is probably good enough to be considered a viable major league backup catcher
• PRO – We've got Victor and Kelly for awhile if we want them
• CON – he's currently the Indians 3^rd catcher with an uninspiring group of players below him in Akron and Kinston

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Oh, hell, where to begin.

Since my buddy Jason moved to Maryland several years back, we've caught a few games at Camden Yards when the Red Sox or Indians have been in town.  When it's the Red Sox, sometimes we'll sit out in left field, often in the front row, the better to observe all the mirth and magic that is Manny Ramirez, Defender.  I'm talking about pretty much the exact seats where Manny jumped up and high-fived that guy a few days ago.

Watching Manny the Defender live and in person is different than watching him on TV, because you're watching him all the time, not just when he's making a play or for a few seconds in between.  And when you're watching Manny the  Defender live and in person, what jumps right out at you is that he doesn't seem to be paying much attention to what's going on — at all — very much like a little league corner outfielder. He's bored, he's looking around, chewing gum or something, he's listening to music through his little earbuds.

Most amusingly, most of the time, he's not even wearing his glove.  At the end of a play, the glove comes off, and again, he doesn't seem to be paying too much attention to when the play is about to start.  Many times, when the pitcher is in his windup, Manny is still not wearing his glove.

So we would start shouting:  Hey, Manny!  Manny!  Ballgame!  Manny!  Ballgame!  Manny, there's a ballgame going on!  Right now!  Glove!  Put your glove on!  Ballgame!

Just to be clear, Manny was absolutely close enough to hear us doing this — although who knows how loud the music is blasting in his ears — and we found the whole situation deeply amusing of course.  It wasn't long before we had several other people joining in the fun of helping Manny pay attention, and the most we ever got out of him was a quick grin.  Like all ballplayers, Manny must be well accustomed to fans shouting who-knows-what at him at any given moment.

But watching the game last night, I had that same funny feeling — except it was a sick feeling, since it involved the Indians — and I just couldn't help thinking, does Eric Wedge realize that there's a pennant race going on?

Hey, Wedgie!  Wedgie!  Pennant race!  Wedgie!  Pennant race!  Wedgie, there's a pennant race going on!  Right now!  Brain!  Put your brain on!  Ballgame!

And then ... ballgame.

Just about anyone who's talked baseball with me can tell you, I'm not a fan of quibbling over managerial decisions.  Few managers are that bad or that great, in-game strategic decisions rarely represent massive swings of probability, and in making those decisions, managers have access to information about the players that we just don't have — for example, whose jock itch is really acting up badly today.  I've gone so far as to say that fire-the-manager is the lowest form of baseball discourse, both for the above reasons and also because that discussion tends to be engaged with quite a bit less intellect and attention to detail than the average guy gives to picking his nose.  So I end up downplaying the significance of a lot of moves, explaining others, downplaying the whole subject for the most part.

And yet, what Indians fan at this point cannot be irked by Eric Wedge?  By his my-kinda-guy biases hiding behind stringent professionalism, by his denial of reality with regard to in-game probabilities and long-term strategy, and now, last night, by his apparently not even paying attention to the game?

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Traded OF Jason Michaels and cash to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a PTBNL

The Indians will be covering most of Michaels' 2008 salary; of the $2.15M owed Michaels this season, the Indians will be paying  $1.68M of it. The Pirates will be utilizing Michaels as their fourth outfielder; Nyjer Morgan, optioned to Indianapolis to make room for Michaels, had been hitting .161/.257/.194 in 31 at-bats. Though neither of Pittsburgh's left-handed outfielders have much a platoon split, Michaels should get regular at-bats as at least a pinch-hitter. If Michaels does well the remainder of this season, the Pirates have an affordable $2.6M 2009 option on Michaels.

As for the Indians, this gives Ben Francisco regular major-league at-bats. Until Shin-Soo Choo is healthy, what you see in the outfield today is what you're going to get. If Francisco hits, the Indians will have another tough decision when Choo's rehab stint is done; Choo is out of options, while Francisco can still be sent down.

Yes, the glorious day has finally arrived.  After a 20-month hiatus, I'm finally excavating and updating my ramshackle prospect ranking system, formerly known as the Exciting Prospects Standard and now redubbed with the more apt (but no more humble) moniker, Prospects That Matter.  Actually, it's not really a ranking system, it's actually a separating-the-men-from-the-boys system; the specific rankings are secondary, and frankly, I don't give them a great deal of thought.  It is perhaps best described as a way of organizing the way we look at our young talent.

Why the new name?  Well, my friends, I'm older now, and wiser, or perhaps more tolerant, or perhaps just lazier.  If you really find Chris Gimenez exciting, I'm not going to argue with you about it.  If, on the other hand, you want to tell me that Chris Gimenez should actually matter to an Indians fan, well, then, you might just have a fight on your hands.  The aim of the system remains the same, and that is, for a diehard Indians fan who doesn't follow the minors closely, to identify those prospects that are really worth knowing about -- and not to bother that fan with guys who are merely over-hyped or over-drafted.

PTM attempts to identify:  Which guys are the most likely to contribute to the Indians winning a pennant?  Which guys are going to contribute the most, and which guys are going to contribute the soonest?  To that end, the PTM player must meet one of these criteria:

• In Triple-A: succeeding at age 25, solid at 24, or younger.
• In Double-A: succeeding at age 23, solid at 22, or younger.
• In High-A: succeeding at age 21, solid at 20, or younger.
  
• In Low-A: succeeding at age 19, solid at 18, or younger.
• In short-season leagues: solid at age 17 or younger.

Triple-A players making this list are major-league-ready or nearly so and basically just waiting for an opportunity, while the High-A players on the list generally will be fairly high ceiling, and their success at such a young age makes them fairly likely to be a good major leaguer.  The Double-A players are a nice mix of readiness and likely success.  "Successful" generally means that he performed well enough to be promoted, and I try to take a nuanced view of a player's stats.  I start with basic productivity but keep a careful eye on peripherals, and particularly on K rates for pitchers.

Statements from team officials may also be considered, but ultimately the choice to promote or not to promote a player is more credible than any verbal statement.  Scouting reports are taken into account, but mostly with an eye toward projecting a player's defensive skills and likely role in the majors, which affects how good his bat will have to be in order to make it – in other words, in terms of pure hitting skills, the bar is lower for a standout defender like Brad Snyder than it is for a merely solid guy like Ben Francisco.  Injuries are always considered a negative factor, and in the PTM context, I never consider injuries a mitigating factor for a mediocre performance.

In 2006, PTM stubbornly championed guys like Carmona, AstroCab and Lofgren before they were fashionable, Adam Miller even when he was injured, solid successes like Garko and frustrating cases like Ferd and Marte – the system is fundamentally better at predicting who will earn a shot in the majors than who will succeed there, though it may be no worse than other systems in that regard.  Recent draft picks without track record and over-21 types dominating in the low minors were excluded without mercy, a tendency of PTM that irritated some fans in 2006 and will continue to irritate in 2008.  PTM preaches patience, not only at the plate but in our prospect rankings.  There are some guys I don't like leaving certain guys off the list any more than you do, but if the performance is there, those guys will jump on the list soon enough.

A note about the ages listed – it's their "seasonal age" for 2007, not 2008, listed that way because it's based on that age that we're evaluating their achievements so far.  I also pay little mind to "official" rules as to what makes a prospect.  If a player is 25 or younger and not a fully established major leaguer, he's a prospect in every way that actually matters to a team, or to a fan.

Prospects That Really, Really Matter — players who've met PTM criteria at an excessively young age.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 21, SS-2B, thrived in Double-A and was solid in the majors.  As if you didn't know.
2. Aaron Laffey – 22, RHP, not a lot of strikeouts but also not a lot of walks, performed  well and "equivalently" from Akron to Cleveland.
   
3. Adam Miller – 22, RHP, struggled with injuries but way ahead of the curve in Triple-A.  Still very much a potential ace.
   
4. Jensen Lewis – 23, RHP, unusual to rank a reliever this high, but Lewis truly dominated in Akron, and then Buffalo, and then Cleveland, and then against the Yankees in the playoffs, with an ERA under 2.00 and K rate over 10.  Frankly, this ranking might not be high enough — no other Indians prospect performed at this high of a level in 2007.
   
5. Andy Marte – 23, 3B, and you don't have to like it.  For one thing, once a guy has made the list, he only graduates by getting too old or succeeding in the majors.  Try to imagine 2007 was Marte's first season in Triple-A — 766 OPS, 23-year-old third baseman, it's actually pretty good.  But of course, his actual first season in Triple-A was at age 21.  His three-year total, ages 21-22-23, are .268/.337/.473.
6. Chuck Lofgren – 21, LHP, those who were disapointed by his season in Akron were forgetting how young he is to be an above-average pitcher at this level.  Lofgren will spend his age-22 season in Double-A, and he's a lefty with better stuff than Laffey or Sowers.

Prospects That Really Matter — those who beat the PTM criteria with room to spare.

7. Jeremy Sowers – 24, LHP, and like Marte, he would make the list based only on his age and 2007 numbers alone, but the high ranking is for his dazzling 2006 performance at age 23.
   
8. Sean Smith – 23, RHP, not turning any heads but had a very solid season in Triple-A.
   
9. Shin-Soo Choo – 24, OF, obviously slowed by injuries, but as with Sowers, we'd do well not to forget what he did at age 23.
   
10. Eddie Mujica — 23, RHP, also slowed by injuries, and also more impressive in 2006 than in 2007, but check out the great K/BB rates.  Still a potential impact reliever if he's healthy.
    

Prospects That Matter — others who've cleared the bar.

11. Nick "Weglarz!" Weglarz – 19, OF, bounced back from injury to make a stellar full-season debut.
    
12. Ben Francisco – 25, OF, improved on his age-24 numbers and made a solid debut in the majors.
    
13. Jordan Brown – 23, 1B, a knee injury reportedly sapped his power, but he still hit .333, and it will be interesting to see how his power develops this season.
14. Jeanmar Gomez – 18, RHP, suffocated Dominican Summer League hitters at 16 (2005) and dominated the Gulf Coast League at 17 (2006), although a bit reminiscent of Carmona, you have to wonder how a guy manages a 2.50 ERA with just 5.92 K/9.  His full-season debut was merely decent, and he's going to have to show more strikeouts and fewer home runs as he progresses, but he improved in both areas as the season progressed.  He'll be starting his age-19 season at High-A, something nobody else on this list has done or will do – youth and progress, that's what we're looking for here.  Somebody really needs to do a scouting report on this guy.
15. Jeff Stevens – 23, RHP, eye-popping K rates in Double-A and apparently not content to be a footnote, he may well hit the  Cleveland bullpen in 2008.
    
16. Carlos Rivero – 19, SS, marginal overall numbers, but a plus defender with a solid walk rate, and a decent amount of pop for a teenage middle infielder.
    
17. John Drennen – 20, CF, not unlike Lofgren, his struggles caused some to:: forget that he was one of the youngest players in his league.
18. Hector Rondon – 19, RHP, pitched better than Gomez at Lake County but is a year older, will also start the season in the Kinston rotation.
    

A few themes emerge on this year's list.  For one thing, it's huge, which either means I'm getting more lenient, or the criteria are letting in certain types of players too easily, or  that the Indians are justified in their strong confidence about the depth of their farm system, defying most "organizational talent" rankings.  A small core of players has been promoted to the advanced-A Kinston club to start the year at age 19 or 20, and it's a happy mix of two pitchers, one skill position player and one power-hitting Canadian.  This complements well the small core of college draftees who will converge on Akron in 2008 (with a good shot to make next year's list).

The other theme is guys succeeding in Triple-A at very young ages – not just at 25 but at 22 – but then possibly being stuck there, possibly because of a limited ceiling, possibly because that last jump to majors is the hardest.  Spots 5-10 are fairly dominated by a sense of, "Don't give up on me, I'm still young, I still matter!"  They all reached Buffalo by 22, and not one of them is 25 yet.

It may be that a future refinement of PTM should raise the bar in some way for Triple-A pitchers in particular, but then again, maybe the bar is just fine.  Part of the premise of the system is that a guy who reaches Triple-A at 22 may have the same stats as a low-ceiling 25-year-old, but he's got three whole seasons to figure out how to make that last jump.  Some research suggests that unlike a hitter's raw tools, a pitcher's stuff doesn't really improve after age 23, but it takes pretty good stuff just to get this far, and there's more to pitching than just stuff.  Something to ponder going forward.

More lists after the jump.

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