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Casey Blake

#1 / Third Base / Cleveland Indians

6-2

210

R

R

Aug 23, 1973

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008 - Casey Blake 80 275 38 77 20 0 8 47 26 58 2 0 .280 .356 .440

Week In Review: May 26–June 1



This week:  2-4
Overall:  25-31
Scoring:  24-28
Old Mood:  1.1
New Mood: 1.2

  W L % GB
Chicago 30 26 .536 -
Minnesota 29 27 .518 1
Cleveland 25 31 .446 5
Detroit
24 32 .429 6
Kansas City 17 27 .404 7.5

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (loss, win, loss) and visited the Royals (win, loss, loss).  Blah.  Went 2-4.  Blah.  With a 4.25 ERA.  Blah.  Scored four runs per game.  Blah.  Hit .243/.318/.435.  Blah.  Not the worst you've ever seen, just.  Blah.  Certainly not at all good either, though.  Blah.

The big story:  As outright awfulness receded into mere malaise, word finally started to leak out that the respective collapses of two of the Indians' best hitters, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, probably owe more to injuries than to anything else.  In retrospect, the profundity of Hafner's problems this season never really made all that much sense as a simple collapse of skills, and there is no real precedent for a hitter's version of Steve Blass Disease.  Still, perhaps because of our habitual fatalism, Indians fans never much figured Hafner was injured, so much so that when he was finally placed on the DL this past Friday, many fans speculated that the injury was phony, merely an excuse to make room on the roster for another player while Hafner was sent away to clear his head for a while.

The Indians told local media that Hafner would be available to play first base during Interleague play, and then he wasn't.  The Indians told local media nothing about Joe Borowski's triceps strain, counting on them to not even notice a substantial drop in velocity, let alone write about it.  And until this weekend, the Indians said nothing about Hafner's shoulder being a significant problem, and they never mentioned that it was probably Victor's hamstring that had hamstrung his power, again counting on them not to notice or report it.  Local media was shocked — shocked! — that the team had not been more forthcoming about those injuries, apparently forgetting that the team said nothing in 2006 about Victor playing half the season with a broken toe, or that they already knew that Jhonny Peralta had a vision problem.

Injuries happen, and players try to play through them, and sometimes teams know, and sometimes teams agree to let the player try.  Knowledge about injuries represents a competitive advantage in many sports, and since MLB is not yet dominated by gambling as some pro sports are, reporting requirements are meager.  Socker sniffed, "A credibility gap is developing between the Indians and the local media ... I find it difficult to believe that people in authority at Progressive Field think it serves their purpose to create an aura of distrust between the team and the media."  (Does he really not see this as a self-condemnation, as he implies that he has nothing to report if the team doesn't spoon-feed it to him?)

These developments bring little solace to Indians fans, as players sometimes don't heal in the course of one season, and sometimes they don't heal at all.  All it does is lend a small light of understanding on the widespread offensive collapse.  We've got young hitters struggling in their first full season (Gutierrez, Cabrera), streaky mediocrity from a few veterans (Blake, Dellucci), two of our best hitters playing hurt (Martinez, Hafner), and unsteady results from two more (Peralta, Sizemore) — oh, now I get it.  That leaves us with only one everday player totally sucking without even a halfway-decent explanation (Garko), and the slow-head-shaking resignation that all this crap apparently really can happen to one lineup in one season.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook returned to the rotation with a reasonably solid start, retiring the first 12 batters of the game before succumbing to a series of line-drive hits in the 5th.  Craig Breslow was claimed off waivers by the Twins, and Jorge Julio was designated for assignment to make room for Westbrook.  Hafner's trip to the DL was timed to make room on the roster for Shin-Soo Choo who returned from the DL to play his first big-league game in over a year.  Hafner's absence prompted Wedge to start utilizing his players in more of a rotation, sharing time fairly evenly among Gutierrez, Blake, Aubrey, Choo, Francisco and even Marte.  Adam Miller's finger gave us the finger once again, apparently for the entire season.  Oh, and I guess there was this "triple-steal" thing, supposedly.  Whatever.  We scored a run on that play, which seemed like pretty big news, but on the other hand, we didn't drive in that run, and that didn't seem like news at all.  Blah.

Post of the week:  Looking for nominations as always ...

Who fed it:  Just when we least expected it, Frankie Gutierrez had a huge week in limited playing time, hitting for average (.357), getting on base (five hits, two walks and a HBP) and flashing that enticing power/speed combination with a home run, a triple, and more than one spectacular play in the field.  Peralta had another huge week (1093) and after almost three weeks of hot hitting is on pace for more than 30 home runs.   Blake (1012) and Dellucci (953) were both highly productive in four starts each, and both were bouncing back from substantial two-week slumps (523 and 411).  Sizemore (948) had his worst two games of the year in the past week but still banged out three home runs and a triple; he's basically stayed hot for six weeks solid (947 after May 12).  Masa bounced back from some rough outings last week with two scoreless innings.  Absolute Best:  Peralta.  Relative Best:  Gutierrez.

Who fed it breakdown:  Very slim pickings for standout pitching performances this week, but I'll go with Perez; he gave up one earned run, and one unearned, in the second of his three appearances this week, but those runs were fluke crap, not at all his fault.  He faced 14 batters and induced six grounders and five strikeouts, allowing no walks and just one line drive for a single.  Borowski, meanwhile, allowed three line drives and eight fly balls — eight looooooooooooong fly balls — and, miraculously, no runs on no walks and three hits.  Just ask my shorts.

Who ate it:  Francisco cruelly fell back to earth this week (458), slugging just .208 while drawing more walks (three) in his last 19 PA than he had in his first 82 PA this season (two) — in both respects, possibly a sign that pitchers have started to pitch him more carefully.  Aubrey also struggled (322) to maintain his hot start, getting just one single in his last 11 AB en route back to Buffalo.  Garko's pathetic week (2-for-13, double, 2 BB, 498) was remarkably similar to his prior pathetic week (2-for-11, 2 BB, 490), or for that matter to his whole pathetic last six weeks (.186/.259/.299).  Paul Byrd coughed up 9 ER over 11 IP, and while he walked only one of the 50 batters he faced, he ominously struck out only one as well.  Absolute Worst:  Francisco.  Relative Worst:  Aubrey.

Who ate it breakdown:  As has become the norm over the last few month, Victor was mediocre but not notably awful over the past week, hitting .261/.292/.348.  The real depths of his problems show up over multiple weeks, however, as his line over the past month is .222/.273/.272.  In 88 PA, he's got only four extra base hits — all doubles, of course — and only three non-intentional walks.  It's become a serious breakdown.  Although leading the majors in batting average just three weeks ago, Victor's contributions at the plate have seriously collapsed.  Deepening that black hole in the lineup has been Shoppach, who is just 3-for-31 over the past month while inconsistently filling in for Victor, with two walks and no extra-base hits.

26 comments | 0 recs

Trade Everyone! - The Infield

(Part 2 in a series ... see Part 1 - the starters.)

July 18, 2006:

Most fans at this point are sick of the entire Indians roster, and who can blame us?  I don't know if everyone on the roster is "on the table" for trades, but a part of me would like to think that there is no option for improving the roster that Shapiro wouldn't consider.  That nobody is untouchable.

In theory, nobody is untouchable.  With the right offer of players and/or money, there is no player in the game who can't be had in a trade.  It's just a question of making the right offer.  So why not consider it?

Funny how we feel exactly the same way, even though the circumstance is very different.  As of that day, in some ways, the Indians had been out of the race for two months — seven games behind the division lead on May 8, 10.5 games behind on May 26, 17 games behind on June 25.  By July 18, the deficit was 21 games, and the Wild Card outlook was hardly any better.  Sabathia spent April on the DL, both Betancourt and Cabrera appeared damaged by the WBC, and if it were possible to make a train out of a sieve and then wreck it, then you'd have a really good metaphor for our infield defense.  We ditched Phllips in favor of Vazquez, but my mid-May we'd already demoted Vazquez in favor of Lou Merloni.

It got real late, real early, but at the same time, the team made the best of that moment's clarity.  Unlike the Expos in 2002 or the Mariners in 2006, we were so clearly out of it that there was no temptation to hope or pretend for another 30 days — not for the players' sake or for the fans.   So there was no reason to make any plays for the current season, and there was a great chance to improve the team's prospects for 2007 and beyond.  We had already traded Eduardo Perez and were on the verge of trading Bob Wickman — deals that eventually produced two key players for the 2007 stretch run.

This season is different.  We have a slightly worse record based on a different combination of failures, but the division and Wild Card races have not run away form the club entirely.  Seven weeks of intermittent struggles left the team improbably in first place, up by 1.5 games, only to fall into a disastrous run of 2-10.  Now 5.5 games behind — but only 5.5 games behind — the Indians are in a division that appears mediocre enough to be won by any decent team, should one emerge.  But can the Indians be that team?  Should we reconfiguring for a drive, or reconfiguring for next season?

Will we decide to be the 2006 Indians again ... or the 2006 Mariners?


RYAN GARKO
$420K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

  • PRO - Could be one part of a significant trade — scouts and managers love his grinder approach and mentality, and GM's will love his contract status, which has him still making the minimum in 2009.
  • PRO - Struggling at 27, he's very unlikely to peak at a level much higher than his 2007 numbers.
  • PRO - 1B is arguably emerging as a position of depth — Aubrey and Brown may be reasonable options for first base in 2009 and 2010, and they fit better into a C/1B rotation with Martinez and Shoppach.
  • CON - Young, cheap players with reasonably good production are the lifeblood of a good roster.
  • CON - Wouldn't clear significant payroll space, now or over the next couple of years.
  • CON - Might be selling low on a player who's struggling.

ASDRUBAL CABRERA
$393K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

  • PRO - Should be recognized as equivalent to an elite prospect, given his track record, and so should get a significant return.  Billy Beane no doubt still very interested.
  • PRO - Would have greater value to a team without an established shortstop, or with a shortstop in his walk year.
  • CON - Probable high-quality player and potential impact player over the next six seasons — and cheap.
  • CON - Weak overall depth in the middle infield.
  • CON - Best defensive player in the entire organization, with no close second in the majors or high minors, high-leverage asset for a team that may well feature the most extreme groundball rotation of all-time over 2009-2010.
  • CON - Uncertain long-term viability of Peralta at shortstop.
  • CON - Hard to imagine a viable trade scenario where trading him wouldn't be a huge mistake.

JHONNY PERALTA
$2.25M salary, signed through 2010, controlled through 2011

  • PRO - Presents the best out of all our struggling hitters — shortstop on pace for 33 HR, barely 26, with postseason heroics, under reasonable contract for three more seasons.
  • PRO - Would be considered a viable 3B option by many teams.
  • PRO - Would allow team to reconfigure middle infield for better defense in light of groundball-heavy rotation.
  • PRO - Likely will be seen by the Indians as merely a reasonable value towards the end of his contract.
  • PRO - Not a fan favorite, probably the most significant asset the team could trade while minimizing backlash; local shills would eagerly endorse the deal.
  • CON - Lack of overall middle-infield depth, likely would have to acquire at least one player (2B) if we traded him.
  • CON - Unclear if Asdrubal Cabrera will hit well enough to stick in the majors in 2008 or 2009, even if moved to shortstop.
  • CON - Production possibly can't be replaced at less than twice the price.
  • CON - Barely 26, likely will bounce back to higher production, and may have a significantly higher peak left in him.
  • CON - Clutch, generally has been immune from team-wide slumps or postseason pressure.
  • CON - Would be the first case of trading someone considered to be a core player, unclear how that would affect future dealings.

CASEY BLAKE
$6.1M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2008

  • PRO - Versatile player with veteran clubhouse rep, apparently considered a clutch performer in some circles, could be considered a significant trade piece in a tight market.
  • PRO - Unlike in 2006, team has viable major-league options at each of his positions.
  • PRO - Despite slump, may well be selling high.
  • PRO - It's his walk-year anyway, and his $4M in remaining salary is high enough to want it gone, and yet low enough to attract most suitors — and low enough to consider eating it to get superior talent coming back in a deal (a tactic heavily employed by Shapiro in past deals).
  • PRO - Using Marte at 3B would upgrade the infield defense.
  • PRO - Would create opportunity to play glut of rookie corner position players — not just Marte, but also Choo, Francisco and Aubrey — and may have no downside in terms of overall production.
  • CON - Uncertain whether Marte can hit well enough to stay in the majors without being a significant hole in the lineup.
  • CON - Overall depth at 3B in particular is not good.

ANDY MARTE
$392K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

  • PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  • PRO - Shapiro seems committed to Wedge, and Wedge seems incredibly un-committed to Marte — possibly facts not made public influencing the club's evaluation of the player.
  • PRO - Some injury history, and despite outstanding track record as a young minor leaguer, has never looked "above" Triple-A pitching, not clear he can hit above replacement level in the majors.
  • CON - Uncertain what his ceiling is, has never gotten significant opportunity as a major league hitter.
  • CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
  • CON - Would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
  • CON - Would have to sign a free agent or trade for someone to play 3B in 2009 and possibly 2010, nobody major-league ready at that position.
  • CON - Brandon Phillips.

JOSH BARFIELD
$416K/238K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

  • PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  • PRO - Value to team roster would plummet to zero if the team acquired a 2B, which is a logical target to upgrade.  Barfield's bat doesn't work at any other position, and his glove doesn't work as as utility player. 
  • PRO - Might still be seen as a viable major leaguer by some teams, particularly in the NL.
  • CON - May well be selling low, as bat/glove may well return to league-average levels given another opportunity — would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
  • CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
  • CON - Weak overall depth in the middle-infield, can't expect help from the minors until 2010 at the earliest.

MICHAEL AUBREY
$380/60K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2014

  • PRO - Could we convince Billy Beane that he wants Aubrey as much as he wants Cabrera?
  • PRO - Incredibly persistent injury history, scouts report significantly diminished skills from his heyday as a prospect, has never produced good numbers above Single-A.
  • CON - Already has more HR than Victor.
  • CON - Is a reasonable option if Garko is traded, fits well into platoon with Martinez and Shoppach.
  • CON - Young, cheap, under control for many years, still one option left.

JAMEY CARROLL
$2M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2009

  • PRO - Useful player, high-quality defender who could be attractive to a "fat" contender looking to shore up weak depth.
  • PRO - Not a significant long-term piece.
  • PRO - Would create opportunity to work Barfield into a two-position rotation with Cabrera and Peralta, which could be somewhat optimizing.
  • CON - Weak overall middle-infield depth, would only make it harder to demote Cabrera, as probably is needed.
  • CON - Possibly undervalued in trade market, probably as valuable to the Indians as to any team.
  • CON - It's harder than it looks to find a quality bench/platoon middle infielder — see also Vazquez, Rouse — and Carroll has a perfect, club-friendly contract.
  • CON - No more sweet baboo.

IN GENERAL:  There's a lot of reason to think about reconfiguring the entire infield.  Garko has been disappointing and never had a high ceiling.  Cabrera's bat doesn't work at 2B.  Peralta has provided high-value production but seems unpredictable, he's fringy at shortstop, and his bat/glove package may not play any better at another position.  As for the others, would anybody really care if they left?

It would seem to behoove the team to make a series of moves aimed at upgrading the infield defense.  Not that it's bad, it's fine overall, but the club likely will get over 200 starts from now through 2010 out of three extreme groundball pitchers, Westbrook, Carmona and Laffey — 260 starts if they're all healthy.  Our best defensive configuration right now is Aubrey, Carroll, Cabrera and Marte — which notably looks nothing like our Opening Day infield.  It also looks notably like our best offensive configuration, but that idea of "best" seems highly questionable at this point.  If the infield's hitting isn't as good as we thought, or even is merely highly uncertain, that too is a reason to start giving defensive issues more consideration.  (Amazingly, Wedge might actually be realizing this himself.)

That provides a rationale for moving even younger players like Garko or Peralta — let alone short-timers like Blake — but the truth is, without those guys, we don't really have the horses.  Shifting guys around still leaves us with projected mediocrity, and worse hitting than before.  We could move Garko with little risk or downside, but moving Blake leaves us a little exposed — and if we move both of them, we'd have to be thinking about getting someone who can play 3B off the bench, either with more glove than Blake or more bat than Carroll, for 2008 and beyond.  As for the middle infield, we can't really trade Peralta without acquiring a substantial second baseman — and if we do that, we might as well ship Barfield out, too.

Ironically, we have a number of players worth trading in the infield, but we're also in the market for infielders who can make a difference.  Infield defense sank the team in 2006, but it could make a huge positive over the next several seasons — and in this one.  There are opportunities here to make a series of moves that improve the team in three ways:  By bringing in a quality player, by replacing a weak player in the lineup, and by shifting one or two others into roles where they can be more valuable.

98 comments | 1 recs

Week In Review: May 20–25



This week:  1-5
Overall:  23-27
Scoring:  19-31
Old Mood:  3.4
New Mood:  1.1

  W L % GB
Chicago 27 22 .535 -
Minnesota 25 25 .500 2.5
Cleveland 23 27 .460 4.5
Kansas City 21 29 .420 6.5
Detroit 21 29 .420 6.5

The series:  Visited the White Sox (loss, loss, loss) and hosted the Rangers (loss, win, loss).

The big story:  We sucked.  After climbing to the top of the division in the middle of last week, the Indians went 1-8.  The pitching snapped back to reality, while the hitters produced the same 19 runs this week that they had over the previous six games, only more poorly distributed.  In response, Wedge fumed, while Francisco and Aubrey added to the idea of slump by contagion, hitting far better in Cleveland than they ever have in Buffalo, seemingly immune to the rest of the team's two-month struggle.

The Indians are the worst-hitting team in the league this season, and they have also been, by far, the worst-hitting team in the majors in the month of May, more than a full run below the major-league average, and nearly a half-run per game worse than the worst team in the National League — again, that's the league where the pitchers are batting maybe three times a game.  The offense has occasionally broken out for a big game, but that has only obscured how bad the offense really has been — the average is 3.4  runs per game, but the median is a solid 3.0.  Week-long power outages have been the most notable feature of the 2008 season:

  • April 3-9, 20 runs in seven games, 2.9 average, 2-5 record
  • April 24-29, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
  • May 1-8, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
  • May 12-25, 41 runs in 14 games, 2.9 average, 5-9 record

We actually have a better than expected record in those games, of course, because our starting pitching has been so outstanding over most of those weeks.  Incredibly, our Pythagorean record is actually 27-23 despite the awful hitting, but a half-dozen ninth-inning blowups have us at 23-27 instead.

The biggest tragedy here is the missed opportunities within the division, which directly impact our ability to make the playoffs and cannot be recouped.  The Indians have been 32 runs better than the Tigers but have only a two-game edge to show for it rather than six or seven — should both teams have any kind of bounce back after this point, those games will make a difference.

Worse yet, the Indians surrendered three straight games to the White Sox, who may well turn out to be the only other team who can over 85 wins in a deeply disappointing division.  Head-to-head records and BIP luck were the entire difference between these two clubs in 2005, when they ended the season with 99 and 93 wins respectively, and so far, history is repeating.

In other news:  Fausto Carmona went to the Disabled List with a hip injury and is expected to miss a full month — yet nobody panicked, as Jake Westbrook was completing a successful run of rehab starts in Akron even as Carmona's season was getting ruptured.  Westbrook was already scheduled to return on the exact day of Carmona's next would-be start, and even if he weren't, the Indians have other fine options waiting in Buffalo.

The Indians shuffled up the bullpen part of the roster pretty good, returning Joe Borowski to his old closer job late in the week and demoting Jensen Lewis, in the hopes that he can regain his old velocity in Buffalo.  The team put rarely used lefty Craig Breslow on waivers while claiming Oneli Perez, a talented but struggling young reliever, from the White Sox and sending him to Buffalo.  Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica were promoted from Buffalo to fill out the staff.

Post of the week:  AngG gets her Rick James on (or is it her Wayne Brady?) as part of a hilarious sequence of rants.  Other nominess: jhon (summing up Wedge disgust nicely),  mjschaefer (replying to zempf),  gte619n (replying to supermarioelia), drerikbrady (tremendous attention to detail), jakesinger777 (expanding on Cisco's Buckner moment).

Who fed it:  C.C. Sabathia and Ben Francisco led a very slim list of candidates for this week, both of them continuing strong runs.  Sabathia gave up three runs, all on solo-shots, over 14 innings, striking out 13 with three walks.  He has a 1.63 ERA (and RA) over his past seven starts, averaging 8 strikeouts and 1.6 walks in 7.2 innings.  Francisco pounded out five doubles and a home run while batting .320, and in playing every inning of the team's last 11 games, he's put up a stunning line of .395/.422/.721 — contributing more than 25% of the total bases and less than 8% of the outs.  Rafael Betancourt bounced back from three horrendous weeks (16.20 ERA) with three scoreless innings, all in the 8th, although he did allow an inherited run.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Francisco.

Who fed it breakdown:  Relief pitchers are hard to evaluate based on box scores, considering the incredibly blunt instruments used to assign earned runs.  Masa Kobayashi gave up an earned run, an unearned run and an inherited run this week but actually pitched pretty well.   In the first game, he relieved Laffey with no outs and a man on first, facing the top of the Chicago lineup.  He got a strikeout and a deep flyout, with a very speedy pinch-runner advancing to second base.   He then allowed a single on the ground through the gaping Blake/Peralta hole, scoring the inherited runner, and finally his only earned run of the week on the only legit line-drive hit.  In the second game, he faced the Rangers' 2-thru-5 hitters, getting a strikeout and two groundouts, allowing just a single on the ground to Josh Hamilton — a damned fine inning.  In the third game, he faced the Rangers' 3-thru-1 hitters, and he got three groundouts including a double-play, plus a strikeout and a flyout.  He allowed only a walk, a single on the ground and one line-drive single.  Had that one line-drive not followed the walk, or had there not been two outs, or had the ball not rolled under the right fielder's legs, we're looking at another fine shutout inning.  So while it may seem like Masa had a bad week, I'm not so sure.

Who ate it:  Where to even begin?  Blake, back to playing every inning, responded by slugging .143 — over the last two weeks, he's had one great game (2-4, 6 TB), four decent games (4-14, 0 TB) and eight awful ones (0-25, 0 TB).  Dellucci continued his atrocious month, using his 14 PA to generate just 3 total bases, against three double-plays, three strikeouts, and at least three awful throws from left field — his May OPS is just 444, and even worse, it's just 482 against lefties alone.  The Platoon Of Despair®, meanwhile, crushed any hopes we might have had for them last week, combining for .156/.282/.188, and yes, that's a 470 OPS, and yes, they are slugging a combined .361 for the season — thanks for asking!  Not to be outdone, catchers Martinez and Shoppach combined for an empty 3-for-23 with a 297 OPS.  Jensen Lewis gave up three runs on three walks, three singles, two doubles and one HBP, en route to Buffalo.  Jorge Julio stepped into two budding trainwrecks (from Byrd and Carmona) and made both of them much worse (more below).  Absolute Worst:  Julio.  Relative Worst:  Considering positional OPS differences, it's just too close to call among Martinez (267), Blake (360), Dellucci (445) and Hafner (459).

Who ate it breakdown:  Unlike Masa, Jorge Julio's bad week was even worse than it appeared — and with an 18.00 ERA, it appeared pretty bad.  In the first game, Julio relieved Byrd with men on first and second and one out.  The run expectancy here is 0.97, but Julio was facing the bottom third of Chicago's lineup and had the platoon edge on two of the three.  He gave up a deep flyball double to the righty Crede, scoring one inherited runner and advancing the other to third base with only one out.  He walked the lefty Swisher intentionally, then gave up a long sac-fly to righty Alexei Ramirez, who just-by-the-way is terrible, scoring that other inherited run, then got the leadoff hitter Cabrera to ground out to end the inning.  He started the next inning with strikeouts to Chicago's 2-3 hitters, then the home run to Jermaine Dye — Julio's first earned run allowed in five weeks — at which point he was pulled.  So against five right-handers in that game, he got a strikeout and a groundout but also three very hard-hit deep flies, each of which drove in one run.

Of course, that game was just a warmup for the major gas-can emptying he would do two nights later.  Relieving a struggling and injured Carmona in the 3rd, with men on first and third and no outs — but again, he's facing the bottom of the lineup, so he really should get out of this with minimal damage.  The sequence:  walk, walk, grand slam, line-drive double, line-drive double — so already, that's six runs, two inherited and four earned, and there's still no outs.  Julio finally gets a groundball, but it goes for an infield single, then a strikeout.  The inning ends with two more deep flies that get caught — but the adventure wasn't over!  Julio starts the next inning by allowing two more scorching line drives, but it's just his good fortune that the second one is hit straight at Peralta, who catches it and then doubles off the first guy — so that's two outs, bases empty, despite not one batter really beaten by Julio.  Next it's a walk, and then a double on a groundball to right, and at that point, he gets pulled with men on second and third, two outs.

So even though his ERA for the week was 18.00, it doesn't begin to describe how bad he really was.  Outside of those earned runs, he allowed all four inherited runners to score, while the two runners he left behind did not score.  And while he did get some legit outs, he also pitched into some very good luck, and he totally failed to keep the ball in the infield, even with the platoon edge against the other team's worst hitters.  He was, all things considered, about as bad as a pitcher can possibly be while getting nine outs — charged with just 6 ER, he pitched badly enough to allow 12.

27 comments | 0 recs

Losing with the Right Guys

Oh, hell, where to begin.

Since my buddy Jason moved to Maryland several years back, we've caught a few games at Camden Yards when the Red Sox or Indians have been in town.  When it's the Red Sox, sometimes we'll sit out in left field, often in the front row, the better to observe all the mirth and magic that is Manny Ramirez, Defender.  I'm talking about pretty much the exact seats where Manny jumped up and high-fived that guy a few days ago.

Watching Manny the Defender live and in person is different than watching him on TV, because you're watching him all the time, not just when he's making a play or for a few seconds in between.  And when you're watching Manny the  Defender live and in person, what jumps right out at you is that he doesn't seem to be paying much attention to what's going on — at all — very much like a little league corner outfielder. He's bored, he's looking around, chewing gum or something, he's listening to music through his little earbuds.

Most amusingly, most of the time, he's not even wearing his glove.  At the end of a play, the glove comes off, and again, he doesn't seem to be paying too much attention to when the play is about to start.  Many times, when the pitcher is in his windup, Manny is still not wearing his glove.

So we would start shouting:  Hey, Manny!  Manny!  Ballgame!  Manny!  Ballgame!  Manny, there's a ballgame going on!  Right now!  Glove!  Put your glove on!  Ballgame!

Just to be clear, Manny was absolutely close enough to hear us doing this — although who knows how loud the music is blasting in his ears — and we found the whole situation deeply amusing of course.  It wasn't long before we had several other people joining in the fun of helping Manny pay attention, and the most we ever got out of him was a quick grin.  Like all ballplayers, Manny must be well accustomed to fans shouting who-knows-what at him at any given moment.

But watching the game last night, I had that same funny feeling — except it was a sick feeling, since it involved the Indians — and I just couldn't help thinking, does Eric Wedge realize that there's a pennant race going on?

Hey, Wedgie!  Wedgie!  Pennant race!  Wedgie!  Pennant race!  Wedgie, there's a pennant race going on!  Right now!  Brain!  Put your brain on!  Ballgame!

And then ... ballgame.

Just about anyone who's talked baseball with me can tell you, I'm not a fan of quibbling over managerial decisions.  Few managers are that bad or that great, in-game strategic decisions rarely represent massive swings of probability, and in making those decisions, managers have access to information about the players that we just don't have — for example, whose jock itch is really acting up badly today.  I've gone so far as to say that fire-the-manager is the lowest form of baseball discourse, both for the above reasons and also because that discussion tends to be engaged with quite a bit less intellect and attention to detail than the average guy gives to picking his nose.  So I end up downplaying the significance of a lot of moves, explaining others, downplaying the whole subject for the most part.

And yet, what Indians fan at this point cannot be irked by Eric Wedge?  By his my-kinda-guy biases hiding behind stringent professionalism, by his denial of reality with regard to in-game probabilities and long-term strategy, and now, last night, by his apparently not even paying attention to the game?

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165 comments | 20 recs

Game Forty-Two: Reds 4, Indians 3

20080516_indians_reds_0_medium

via www.fangraphs.com


Highest WPA Lowest WPA
Jhonny Peralta .168 Jensen Lewis -.270
Rafael Perez .136 Asdrubal Cabrera -.161
Travis Hafner .119 Jeremy Sowers -.120

Jeremy Sowers gave up the first earned runs by a Cleveland starter in almost a week, three runs in the first three innings. But he stuck around long enough to give the Indians reasonable shot of winning the game. Three runs is a lot for this offense to make up, but at least it was in the realm of possibility. Five runs would have been totally out of reach.

Johnny Cueto only allowed one base runner in his first five innings of work (he walked Jeremy Sowers, naturally), and looked like he was going to go the distance, if not accomplish even higher feats. But he fell apart in the sixth, giving three home runs to the first four batters he faced. To give credit, though, he kept the game tied after the Indians got two more baserunners on after the three home runs.

The Indians also had  an opportunity in the seventh after Casey Blake doubled with one out. After Franklin Gutierrez hit a broken-bat liner to second, Grady Sizemore was walked, and a Joey Votto error loaded the bases. But David Dellucci grounded out to second to end the inning. In hindsight, perhaps holding Gutierrez back would have kept Jared Burton in the game; instead, the Reds brought in Jeremy Affeldt to face Dellucci.

The Reds took the lead in the eighth without a hard-hit ball. Jensen Lewis walked Brandon Phillips to start the inning, and then Joey Votto hit a very catchable fly ball down the left field line. Unfortunately, with David Dellucci playing no-doubles defense, he had no shot of a catching a ball he normally can get to. Lewis did the rest, walking both Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Dunn to bring in the winning run.

 

8 comments | 0 recs

Marte sits, smart team gets dumber

You would think, as a stymied prospect, that the best place you could possibly be is backing up a guy who is the the worst-hitting starter in the league at your position, and one of the worst fielders as well — not to mention, he's in the last year of his deal, while you're with the team for the long haul.  Hell, forget playing time, that other guy will be lucky if he doesn't get DFA'ed, right?  Right?

No — not if you're Andy Marte.  That other guy is apparent manager's pet Casey Blake — and let me emphasize, I really hate saying that, "manager's pet."  I hate resorting to that kind of reductionist cartoon characterizing of players or managers, because it can keep us from seeing small moves for what they really are, and from working harder to understand the reasons behind large moves.  But really, at this point, what is there left for us (or Andy Marte) to think?

And in a way it's even worse than that, because Blake doesn't have to sit to get Marte in the game.  Blake plays a fine first base and is also a very capable outfielder, something the Indians seem to have forgotten.  That makes five spots in the lineup that Blake could occupy — 1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH — and as it happens, the Indians have struggled to find production in all five of those spots, with the worst OPS in the league at 3B, the second-worst in RF, the third-worst at DH, and the fourth-worst in LF and at 1B.  Not one of our regaular corner players (Garko, Hafner, Gutierrez and Blake) boasts even a meager 700 OPS, and even Dellucci and Francisco are putting up numbers that are merely league average, and below-average for left field.

So you would think, as a stymied prospect relegated to providing depth from the bench, that when your team is struggling at all five possible positions where you could indirectly or directly provide depth, that you would be getting a ton of playing time.  But no.  The Indians have shown no interest in playing Blake in the outfield this season, despite the fact that he's been one of the league's best defensive outfielders by many measures and one of the league's lesser third basemen.  And yet, the Indians have been desperate to get offense, and Shapiro has admitted not having any real explanation or solution.  They're willing to try anything, shuffling the batting order, resting guys in slumps, dumping Michaels for Francisco, even Jason freakin' Tyner, "the Neifi Perez of outfielders."

Basically, they're willing to try anything except giving Andy Marte a real shot.  Which is odd, because just a year ago, they were willing to try that.  Back in 2003, Brandon Phillips got 300 at-bats, starting 82 games out of 94.  Just last season, Josh Barfield got 390 at-bats, starting 106 games out of 113.  Marte, however, got just 39 at-bats and 12 starts last season before going on the DL, and he's never gotten another chance.

If the plan wasn't to give Marte playing time in the event of struggles at 1B and 3B and LF and RF and DH ... then what the hell was the plan?

Continue reading this post »

295 comments | 13 recs

Week In Review: May 6–12



This week:  5-2
Overall:  19-19
Scoring:  32-13
Old Mood:  3.1
New Mood:  4.5

  W L % GB
Minnesota 20 17 .540 -
Cleveland 19 19 .500 1.5
Chicago 18 19 .486 2.0
Kansas City 16 21 .432 4.0
Detroit 16 22 .421 4.5

The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.

19 comments | 0 recs

Game Thirty-Five: Indians 6, Blue Jays 1

20080509_bluejays_indians_0_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA Lowest WPA
CC Sabathia .264 Jhonny Peralta -.118
Travis Hafner .174 David Dellucci -.092
Casey Blake .138 Franklin Gutierrez -.086

What a fun game to watch, with two pitchers at the height of their powers dueling. CC Sabathia struck out nine but gave up a fifth inning run, meaning that he trailed exiting the field in the seventh. There was a good possibility that CC would lose his sixth game of the season, for Roy Halladay again had Indian hitters in his thrall. Jhonny Peralta especially looked clueless against him, striking out twice, both times on three pitches. Halladay also struck out nine, but the Indians made him work just enough so he was approaching his end of the night in the seventh inning. For baseball's best horse (4 CG already in 2008), this was an accomplishment.

The crucial seventh started with something unexpected: a Travis Hafner line drive single. The hit was the second of the night; he'd only had two multi-hit games in the past three weeks. Ryan Garko was next up; earlier in the game he wasn't able to go the other way with Hafner on second and nobody out. But this time he got Hafner over the Garko way - via a single. Now was an obvious bunt situation, and up came a good bunter in Asdrubal Cabrera. But Roy Halladay in an effort to prevent the bunt, missed with his first couple pitches, and then missed twice while trying to throw a strike. Now the bases were loaded, and Casey Blake, the clutchiest hitter on the team, came up. He gave the Indians the lead with a two-run double that probably would have been a grand slam on many other nights.

Now came a tactical error on the part of John Gibbons. He pulled Roy Halladay, which certainly looked like the right move, in favor of left-hander Jesse Carlson. Carlson took care of Grady Sizemore, getting him to pop out to third base. Gibbons then ordered Franklin Gutierrez to be walked, re-loading the bases. Eric Wedge countered by pulling David Dellucci in favor of Ben Francisco. Gibbons reacted by bringing in Jeremy Accardo, a right-hander to face Francisco, which would normally be the correct move. But Francisco has historically been much better against right-handed pitchers, and his short stint in the majors has shown the same trend. So why bring in Accardo when (a) Carlson looked very good against Sizemore, and (b) there's no matchup advantage to exploit. Francisco got on top of an Accardo fastball and hit a double off the wall in left-center, breaking the game open, and making sure that the Indians beat Roy Halladay for the first time in 10 starts.

13 comments | 0 recs

Week In Review: April 29-May 5



This week:  2-3
Overall:  14-17
Scoring:  15-18
Old Mood:  5.2
New Mood:  3.1

  W L % GB
Minnesota 16 14 .533 -
Chicago 14 16 .467 2.0
Cleveland 14 17 .452 2.5
Kansas City 14 17 .452 2.5
Detroit 14 19 .424 3.5

The series:  Hosted the Mariners (loss, win, win) and the Royals (loss, loss).

The big story:  The lineup suffered a massive power outage from every player except Sizemore, as our other 12 "hitters" combined for zero home runs, zero triples and just nine doubles over 145 at-bats — and incidentally only 11 walks over 163 plate appearances — for a .262 slugging percentage.  (The major league average last season was .422.)  Our middle infielders produced just one single in 30 at-bats.  Blake and Hafner combined for just four hits, though all were doubles, in 29 at-bats.  The other four regulars (Martinez, Garko, Gutierrez and Dellucci) went the "empty batting average" route, hitting a solid .294 but combining for just three doubles and three walks between them.

The team's curious response was to jettison Jason Michaels in favor of Ben Francisco.  Curious, because after a horrendous 3-for-33 start in the team's first 15 games, Michaels had posted an 880 OPS over the past 16 games and was not part of the team's problems in any visible way.  Curious, because Michaels has a very team-friendly contract.  Curious, because Francisco had gotten off to an equally slow start in Buffalo and had made less of a rebound.  Curious, because the two players bring a very similar mix of skills to the roster.  Curious, because most in the industry expect Francisco to be a role-player or fringe everyday player, just like Michaels.

Curious, in sum, because it's not clear the Indians have done anything at all except replace one face with another, and usually, that kind of superficial move is reserved for the manager's job.  But, you know, they say you can't start a fire without a spark.  I guess.  Whatever.

In other news:  The rest of the rotation also continued to dominate, allowing just one earned run all week before the 7th inning, capped off by Aaron Laffey, who tossed an even better Sunday gem than he did last week, making the Indians look smart for not taking an easy chance to skip his turn in the rotation.  Paul Byrd continued a totally unpublicized four-game tear in which he's given up four home runs but only six runs total, and just one walk total, averaging 6.6 IP with a 1.71 ERA.  Garko more or less broke out of a hellacious 0-for-24 slump.  Wedge seethed a lot.  Betancourt was less than inspiring, failing to record a scoreless appearance in three tries.

Meanwhile, over on the Bizarro Planet, Cliff Lee was untouchable for six more innings before finally ending his un-scored-upon streak at 28 innings — giving up a three-run bomb, reducing his outing to a mere quality start, and ballooning his ERA all the way up to 0.96, still easily the best in the majors this season.  Like two regressions passing in the night, Sabathia's start was eerily similar to Lee's, beginning with six scoreless innings and ending with three straight hits to start the 7th.  Sabathia pitched well overall but still owns the league's worst ERA at 7.51.

Post of the week:  Maybe I need to rethink this.

Who fed it:  Byrd pitched the best game of the week, allowing just four singles and one walk.  Two of those five baserunners were erased trying to steal second, and none of them ever reached second.  Byrd retired the leadoff batter in all eight innings, and only two batters reached base with less than two outs.  Laffey was nearly as good in his start, allowing just one unearned run on four singles and two walks.  Sizemore busted out a 1311 OPS, including as many extra bases (nine) as the rest of the roster combined, and as many walks (five) as the four corner positions plus DH and catcher.  Perez had an odd but successful week, at one point earning a "Hold" without facing a single batter; he faced four batters over three other games, producing three groundballs and one flyball, resulting in a single and three outs.  Jensen Lewis allowed no hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, and Tom Mastny struck out one guy and allowed another to reach on a groundball error, the only two batters he's faced in the last 19 days. Absolute Best:  Sizemore.  Relative Best:  Byrd.

Honorable mention:  in his final start as an Indian (and only start of the week), Jason Michaels hit a double and a sac fly.  The next day, he scored the 11th inning game-winner as a pinch-runner in his final game here.  Not as dramatic as a farewell home run, but a fitting send-off for a role player who always seemed to be working his ass off out there.

Who ate it:  It's been feast-or-famine almost every week for Peralta, and this week, it was an all-out 0-for-13 famine.  Cabrera was nearly as bad at 1-for-16.  Blake's strikeouts (six) were double his times on base (three); he's played every inning of the last nine games, producing a line of .100/.206/.167.  Betancourt, filling in capably for Borowski, yielded two home runs and four singles while retiring only five batters.  Hafner hit two doubles in one game but went 0-for-10 in three others; he's struck out 14 times in his last 56 trips to the plate, hitting just four singles and four doubles and drawing only five walks for a line of .167/.250/.250.  Breslow totally crapped the bed in his only appearance in the last 19 days.  Absolute Worst:  Peralta.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys:    The Twins surged while the White Sox struggled and the Tigers scuffled.  The division more than ever looks like it will go to any team that can manage anything close to 90 wins, as the Tigers' pitching and the Indians' hitting look no more likely to come together than the White Sox or Twins going on a big flukey run.

False alarms:

  • Not one single hitter having a good year by his own standards.
  • Betancourt, terrible.
  • Roger Clemens, apologizing for something.
  • Not one formidable opponent in the AL Central.

Open questions:

  • Can the starters walk on water long enough for the lineup to regroup and win a few games?
  • Is there something fundamentally wrong with the organizational approach to hitting, and how long can Derek Shelton keep his job?
  • When Cliff Lee returns to reality, what will that look like?
  • Which teams are really in the AL Central race, anyway?
  • Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
  • Too soon to write Laffey's name into our starting rotation plans, 2009-2013?
  • Can Betancourt regain anything remotely resembling his 2007 dominance for any amount of time, or will he scuffle back-and-forth all season as he did in 2006?
  • Is Jensen Lewis back on track, sort of?
  • How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen?  Do we even want to see him there?
  • Could Sowers be on the block soon?
  • Could the Indians really consider Marte more or less expendable and Blake more or less untouchable?
  • Really?

46 comments | 0 recs

Postponed

The Indians announced an hour ago that tonight's game has been postponed, and no makeup date has been announced.  While you might expect the teams to double-up tomorrow or Sunday to make up the game, as these same two teams did just last Thursday, Anthony Castrovince speculates that August 18 might be the date.  That's a common off-day for the two teams, immediately preceding a scheduled three-game set between the two at the Prog, but it would also create a 25-day span with no off-days for the Indians.  Both teams might prefer to do a double-header on Saturday, September 13, after rosters have expanded to 40.

Both teams have announced that tonight's scheduled starters (Sabathia and Hochevar) will go on Saturday, with Saturday's original pair (Laffey and Meche) going on Sunday.  With a scheduled off-day on Monday, however, if only two games are played this weekend, the Indians could opt to skip Laffey's turn, starting Sabathia and Carmona against the Royals this weekend and then Lee-Byrd-Sabathia as originally scheduled against the Yankees, all on regular rest

They could in fact send Laffey down tomorrow and keep an extra player on the roster for those five games, recalling Jeremy Sowers to make starts on May 9 and 14.  It was the first rainout, after all, that forced the Indians to bump Sowers back to Buffalo in favor of Laffey.  Neither Ben Francisco nor Brad Snyder is eligible to be recalled this weekend, but the Indians could supplement the bullpen with Ed Mujica, or give a first cup-of-coffee to Wyatt Toregas or Michael Aubrey.  Francisco could be recalled in time to start the Yankees series.

Of course, none of this will matter if the teams instead play a double-header on Saturday or Sunday,  in which case the Indians rotation will move forward as originally planned.

Tonight's postponement also postpones our first look at Wedge's reshuffling of yesterday's reshuffled lineup — lineup 2.0.1 if you will — in which Casey Blake returns to the #8 spot while Franklin Gutierrez ascends to the all-important two-hole.  Blake struggled mightily in the past two series (458 OPS) while Gutierrez thrived (943).  Neither man has put up significant power numbers, and Blake has walked more, but I don't think Wedge is just acting in ignorance of BIP variance here.  You can see the difference in ther body language at the plate, while the numbers show that Blake struck out 11 times in just 24 at-bats.

As I write this, the Twins are pummeling the TIgers 8-1 after seven innings, poised to move just a half-game back of the White Sox, who lost hours ago, while shoving the Tigers into 3rd place, 1.5 games back.  (Tough loss today for Buerhle, who pitched an eight-inning complete game and allowed just two un-earned runs, no walks, four singles and a double.)  The Indians are now just one game back of the White Sox for the division lead.

16 comments | 0 recs


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