Week In Review: May 26–June 1
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The series: Hosted the White Sox (loss, win, loss) and visited the Royals (win, loss, loss). Blah. Went 2-4. Blah. With a 4.25 ERA. Blah. Scored four runs per game. Blah. Hit .243/.318/.435. Blah. Not the worst you've ever seen, just. Blah. Certainly not at all good either, though. Blah.
The big story: As outright awfulness receded into mere malaise, word finally started to leak out that the respective collapses of two of the Indians' best hitters, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, probably owe more to injuries than to anything else. In retrospect, the profundity of Hafner's problems this season never really made all that much sense as a simple collapse of skills, and there is no real precedent for a hitter's version of Steve Blass Disease. Still, perhaps because of our habitual fatalism, Indians fans never much figured Hafner was injured, so much so that when he was finally placed on the DL this past Friday, many fans speculated that the injury was phony, merely an excuse to make room on the roster for another player while Hafner was sent away to clear his head for a while.
The Indians told local media that Hafner would be available to play first base during Interleague play, and then he wasn't. The Indians told local media nothing about Joe Borowski's triceps strain, counting on them to not even notice a substantial drop in velocity, let alone write about it. And until this weekend, the Indians said nothing about Hafner's shoulder being a significant problem, and they never mentioned that it was probably Victor's hamstring that had hamstrung his power, again counting on them not to notice or report it. Local media was shocked — shocked! — that the team had not been more forthcoming about those injuries, apparently forgetting that the team said nothing in 2006 about Victor playing half the season with a broken toe, or that they already knew that Jhonny Peralta had a vision problem.
Injuries happen, and players try to play through them, and sometimes teams know, and sometimes teams agree to let the player try. Knowledge about injuries represents a competitive advantage in many sports, and since MLB is not yet dominated by gambling as some pro sports are, reporting requirements are meager. Socker sniffed, "A credibility gap is developing between the Indians and the local media ... I find it difficult to believe that people in authority at Progressive Field think it serves their purpose to create an aura of distrust between the team and the media." (Does he really not see this as a self-condemnation, as he implies that he has nothing to report if the team doesn't spoon-feed it to him?)
These developments bring little solace to Indians fans, as players sometimes don't heal in the course of one season, and sometimes they don't heal at all. All it does is lend a small light of understanding on the widespread offensive collapse. We've got young hitters struggling in their first full season (Gutierrez, Cabrera), streaky mediocrity from a few veterans (Blake, Dellucci), two of our best hitters playing hurt (Martinez, Hafner), and unsteady results from two more (Peralta, Sizemore) — oh, now I get it. That leaves us with only one everday player totally sucking without even a halfway-decent explanation (Garko), and the slow-head-shaking resignation that all this crap apparently really can happen to one lineup in one season.
In other news: Jake Westbrook returned to the rotation with a reasonably solid start, retiring the first 12 batters of the game before succumbing to a series of line-drive hits in the 5th. Craig Breslow was claimed off waivers by the Twins, and Jorge Julio was designated for assignment to make room for Westbrook. Hafner's trip to the DL was timed to make room on the roster for Shin-Soo Choo who returned from the DL to play his first big-league game in over a year. Hafner's absence prompted Wedge to start utilizing his players in more of a rotation, sharing time fairly evenly among Gutierrez, Blake, Aubrey, Choo, Francisco and even Marte. Adam Miller's finger gave us the finger once again, apparently for the entire season. Oh, and I guess there was this "triple-steal" thing, supposedly. Whatever. We scored a run on that play, which seemed like pretty big news, but on the other hand, we didn't drive in that run, and that didn't seem like news at all. Blah.
Post of the week: Looking for nominations as always ...
Who fed it: Just when we least expected it, Frankie Gutierrez had a huge week in limited playing time, hitting for average (.357), getting on base (five hits, two walks and a HBP) and flashing that enticing power/speed combination with a home run, a triple, and more than one spectacular play in the field. Peralta had another huge week (1093) and after almost three weeks of hot hitting is on pace for more than 30 home runs. Blake (1012) and Dellucci (953) were both highly productive in four starts each, and both were bouncing back from substantial two-week slumps (523 and 411). Sizemore (948) had his worst two games of the year in the past week but still banged out three home runs and a triple; he's basically stayed hot for six weeks solid (947 after May 12). Masa bounced back from some rough outings last week with two scoreless innings. Absolute Best: Peralta. Relative Best: Gutierrez.
Who fed it breakdown: Very slim pickings for standout pitching performances this week, but I'll go with Perez; he gave up one earned run, and one unearned, in the second of his three appearances this week, but those runs were fluke crap, not at all his fault. He faced 14 batters and induced six grounders and five strikeouts, allowing no walks and just one line drive for a single. Borowski, meanwhile, allowed three line drives and eight fly balls — eight looooooooooooong fly balls — and, miraculously, no runs on no walks and three hits. Just ask my shorts.
Who ate it: Francisco cruelly fell back to earth this week (458), slugging just .208 while drawing more walks (three) in his last 19 PA than he had in his first 82 PA this season (two) — in both respects, possibly a sign that pitchers have started to pitch him more carefully. Aubrey also struggled (322) to maintain his hot start, getting just one single in his last 11 AB en route back to Buffalo. Garko's pathetic week (2-for-13, double, 2 BB, 498) was remarkably similar to his prior pathetic week (2-for-11, 2 BB, 490), or for that matter to his whole pathetic last six weeks (.186/.259/.299). Paul Byrd coughed up 9 ER over 11 IP, and while he walked only one of the 50 batters he faced, he ominously struck out only one as well. Absolute Worst: Francisco. Relative Worst: Aubrey.
Who ate it breakdown: As has become the norm over the last few month, Victor was mediocre but not notably awful over the past week, hitting .261/.292/.348. The real depths of his problems show up over multiple weeks, however, as his line over the past month is .222/.273/.272. In 88 PA, he's got only four extra base hits — all doubles, of course — and only three non-intentional walks. It's become a serious breakdown. Although leading the majors in batting average just three weeks ago, Victor's contributions at the plate have seriously collapsed. Deepening that black hole in the lineup has been Shoppach, who is just 3-for-31 over the past month while inconsistently filling in for Victor, with two walks and no extra-base hits.
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Week In Review: May 20–25
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The series: Visited the White Sox (loss, loss, loss) and hosted the Rangers (loss, win, loss).
The big story: We sucked. After climbing to the top of the division in the middle of last week, the Indians went 1-8. The pitching snapped back to reality, while the hitters produced the same 19 runs this week that they had over the previous six games, only more poorly distributed. In response, Wedge fumed, while Francisco and Aubrey added to the idea of slump by contagion, hitting far better in Cleveland than they ever have in Buffalo, seemingly immune to the rest of the team's two-month struggle.
The Indians are the worst-hitting team in the league this season, and they have also been, by far, the worst-hitting team in the majors in the month of May, more than a full run below the major-league average, and nearly a half-run per game worse than the worst team in the National League — again, that's the league where the pitchers are batting maybe three times a game. The offense has occasionally broken out for a big game, but that has only obscured how bad the offense really has been — the average is 3.4 runs per game, but the median is a solid 3.0. Week-long power outages have been the most notable feature of the 2008 season:
- April 3-9, 20 runs in seven games, 2.9 average, 2-5 record
- April 24-29, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
- May 1-8, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
- May 12-25, 41 runs in 14 games, 2.9 average, 5-9 record
We actually have a better than expected record in those games, of course, because our starting pitching has been so outstanding over most of those weeks. Incredibly, our Pythagorean record is actually 27-23 despite the awful hitting, but a half-dozen ninth-inning blowups have us at 23-27 instead.
The biggest tragedy here is the missed opportunities within the division, which directly impact our ability to make the playoffs and cannot be recouped. The Indians have been 32 runs better than the Tigers but have only a two-game edge to show for it rather than six or seven — should both teams have any kind of bounce back after this point, those games will make a difference.
Worse yet, the Indians surrendered three straight games to the White Sox, who may well turn out to be the only other team who can over 85 wins in a deeply disappointing division. Head-to-head records and BIP luck were the entire difference between these two clubs in 2005, when they ended the season with 99 and 93 wins respectively, and so far, history is repeating.
In other news: Fausto Carmona went to the Disabled List with a hip injury and is expected to miss a full month — yet nobody panicked, as Jake Westbrook was completing a successful run of rehab starts in Akron even as Carmona's season was getting ruptured. Westbrook was already scheduled to return on the exact day of Carmona's next would-be start, and even if he weren't, the Indians have other fine options waiting in Buffalo.
The Indians shuffled up the bullpen part of the roster pretty good, returning Joe Borowski to his old closer job late in the week and demoting Jensen Lewis, in the hopes that he can regain his old velocity in Buffalo. The team put rarely used lefty Craig Breslow on waivers while claiming Oneli Perez, a talented but struggling young reliever, from the White Sox and sending him to Buffalo. Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica were promoted from Buffalo to fill out the staff.
Post of the week: AngG gets her Rick James on (or is it her Wayne Brady?) as part of a hilarious sequence of rants. Other nominess: jhon (summing up Wedge disgust nicely), mjschaefer (replying to zempf), gte619n (replying to supermarioelia), drerikbrady (tremendous attention to detail), jakesinger777 (expanding on Cisco's Buckner moment).
Who fed it: C.C. Sabathia and Ben Francisco led a very slim list of candidates for this week, both of them continuing strong runs. Sabathia gave up three runs, all on solo-shots, over 14 innings, striking out 13 with three walks. He has a 1.63 ERA (and RA) over his past seven starts, averaging 8 strikeouts and 1.6 walks in 7.2 innings. Francisco pounded out five doubles and a home run while batting .320, and in playing every inning of the team's last 11 games, he's put up a stunning line of .395/.422/.721 — contributing more than 25% of the total bases and less than 8% of the outs. Rafael Betancourt bounced back from three horrendous weeks (16.20 ERA) with three scoreless innings, all in the 8th, although he did allow an inherited run. Absolute Best: Francisco. Relative Best: Francisco.
Who fed it breakdown: Relief pitchers are hard to evaluate based on box scores, considering the incredibly blunt instruments used to assign earned runs. Masa Kobayashi gave up an earned run, an unearned run and an inherited run this week but actually pitched pretty well. In the first game, he relieved Laffey with no outs and a man on first, facing the top of the Chicago lineup. He got a strikeout and a deep flyout, with a very speedy pinch-runner advancing to second base. He then allowed a single on the ground through the gaping Blake/Peralta hole, scoring the inherited runner, and finally his only earned run of the week on the only legit line-drive hit. In the second game, he faced the Rangers' 2-thru-5 hitters, getting a strikeout and two groundouts, allowing just a single on the ground to Josh Hamilton — a damned fine inning. In the third game, he faced the Rangers' 3-thru-1 hitters, and he got three groundouts including a double-play, plus a strikeout and a flyout. He allowed only a walk, a single on the ground and one line-drive single. Had that one line-drive not followed the walk, or had there not been two outs, or had the ball not rolled under the right fielder's legs, we're looking at another fine shutout inning. So while it may seem like Masa had a bad week, I'm not so sure.
Who ate it: Where to even begin? Blake, back to playing every inning, responded by slugging .143 — over the last two weeks, he's had one great game (2-4, 6 TB), four decent games (4-14, 0 TB) and eight awful ones (0-25, 0 TB). Dellucci continued his atrocious month, using his 14 PA to generate just 3 total bases, against three double-plays, three strikeouts, and at least three awful throws from left field — his May OPS is just 444, and even worse, it's just 482 against lefties alone. The Platoon Of Despair®, meanwhile, crushed any hopes we might have had for them last week, combining for .156/.282/.188, and yes, that's a 470 OPS, and yes, they are slugging a combined .361 for the season — thanks for asking! Not to be outdone, catchers Martinez and Shoppach combined for an empty 3-for-23 with a 297 OPS. Jensen Lewis gave up three runs on three walks, three singles, two doubles and one HBP, en route to Buffalo. Jorge Julio stepped into two budding trainwrecks (from Byrd and Carmona) and made both of them much worse (more below). Absolute Worst: Julio. Relative Worst: Considering positional OPS differences, it's just too close to call among Martinez (267), Blake (360), Dellucci (445) and Hafner (459).
Who ate it breakdown: Unlike Masa, Jorge Julio's bad week was even worse than it appeared — and with an 18.00 ERA, it appeared pretty bad. In the first game, Julio relieved Byrd with men on first and second and one out. The run expectancy here is 0.97, but Julio was facing the bottom third of Chicago's lineup and had the platoon edge on two of the three. He gave up a deep flyball double to the righty Crede, scoring one inherited runner and advancing the other to third base with only one out. He walked the lefty Swisher intentionally, then gave up a long sac-fly to righty Alexei Ramirez, who just-by-the-way is terrible, scoring that other inherited run, then got the leadoff hitter Cabrera to ground out to end the inning. He started the next inning with strikeouts to Chicago's 2-3 hitters, then the home run to Jermaine Dye — Julio's first earned run allowed in five weeks — at which point he was pulled. So against five right-handers in that game, he got a strikeout and a groundout but also three very hard-hit deep flies, each of which drove in one run.
Of course, that game was just a warmup for the major gas-can emptying he would do two nights later. Relieving a struggling and injured Carmona in the 3rd, with men on first and third and no outs — but again, he's facing the bottom of the lineup, so he really should get out of this with minimal damage. The sequence: walk, walk, grand slam, line-drive double, line-drive double — so already, that's six runs, two inherited and four earned, and there's still no outs. Julio finally gets a groundball, but it goes for an infield single, then a strikeout. The inning ends with two more deep flies that get caught — but the adventure wasn't over! Julio starts the next inning by allowing two more scorching line drives, but it's just his good fortune that the second one is hit straight at Peralta, who catches it and then doubles off the first guy — so that's two outs, bases empty, despite not one batter really beaten by Julio. Next it's a walk, and then a double on a groundball to right, and at that point, he gets pulled with men on second and third, two outs.
So even though his ERA for the week was 18.00, it doesn't begin to describe how bad he really was. Outside of those earned runs, he allowed all four inherited runners to score, while the two runners he left behind did not score. And while he did get some legit outs, he also pitched into some very good luck, and he totally failed to keep the ball in the infield, even with the platoon edge against the other team's worst hitters. He was, all things considered, about as bad as a pitcher can possibly be while getting nine outs — charged with just 6 ER, he pitched badly enough to allow 12.
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Week In Review: May 13–19
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The series: Hosted the Athletics (win, win, win) and visited the Reds (loss, loss, loss). It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The Indians rode an absurd run of exceptional pitching to the division lead, devastating the A's to cap off an 8-2 run, only then to get swept by the not-really-even-kind-of-good Reds. How many weeks see a team move from 1.5 behind one team, to 1.5 ahead of everybody, to 1.5 behind a different team?
The big story: The team's most senior and best pedigreed relievers continued to fail in the 9th inning, raising the question, why are we picking our closers this way, anyway? A week ago, Betancourt followed nine innings of shutout pitching from Cliff Lee with a three-run, game-losing 10th against Toronto. A few days later, he appeared ready to repeat the performance against Oakland, loading the bases while attempting to close the door on a three-run victory. Incredibly, Wedge then pulled his closer — something he refrained from doing in well over a dozen similar situations with Joe Borowski on the mound — in favor of Kobayashi, who had "backed into" his first career save two nights earlier. Kobayashi loosed a run-scoring wild pitch but slammed the door with two strikeouts — and the controversy was on. Wedge said several guys might share the closer role until Borowski returns. Kobayashi was inserted into the next save situation a few nights later and promptly blew the game — bloop single to left, hit-by-pitch, and a three-run walkoff homer to Adam Dunn, who should have been wearing a giant cape with the words "Don't Give This Guy Anything Good To Hit" emblazoned on the back.
Many stupid things have already been written about this, and many more will be written in the coming weeks. We've already heard the brainless drumbeat starting against closer-by-committee, and no doubt much more will follow. You will hear that Bill James invented closer-by-committee (not true) and thinks it's a great idea (not true), that the Red Sox tried closer-by-committee a few years back (true) at James' urging (not true), and that that Red Sox bullpen failed (true) because closer-by-committee is such a terrible idea (not true, it was because they didn't have any good relievers).
Mind you, I don't really care for closer-by-committee much myself, but I like dumb, superstitious baseball commentary even less, and for some reason, the Holy Role Of The Closer seems to bring out the village idiots like little else. As you suffer through it, try to hold firm these simple facts:
- Betancourt has not been steady all season. When Borowski went on the DL, Betancourt had given up two home runs in his last four games. In fact, Betancourt's best stretch of the season came in the two weeks immediately following his being annointed the closer — allowing just one single (and that was the only line drive) and one walk over four games.
- Kobayashi, despite a very impressive career in Japan, is an older pitcher who has never established any level of performance, good or bad, in the U.S. And similar to Betancourt, he had given up two home runs in the five games preceding his first career Save in the U.S.
So there's no reason to think any of this has anything to do with the 9th inning being "different." We've got two veteran relievers struggling, getting inconsistent results in any inning — but we also have a number of younger relievers thriving within limited opportunities. And for whatever it's worth, Betancourt looks to have been extremely unlucky on balls in play (.380 BABIP, compared with .287 career and .240 last season) and is still not giving up any walks (only two unintentional in 72 PA).
In other news: The starters ended a historic run of more than 44 scoreless innings when Aaron Laffey threw a ball into right field while attempting to field a lame squib in front of the mound — even that it was only an unearned run — leading to the curious ESPN headline, "Indians starter gives up run". The streak spanned seven days in seven games, and over that span, the Indians entire pitching staff gave up just six runs — aside from Betancourt, only two runs over 62.2 IP, one unearned, with nine pitchers combining for an insane ERA of 0.14. Over that span, Sabathia and Laffey gave up two runs in 30 innings, and Carmona and Lee pitched 18 scoreless innings in a single day. Byrd contributed another 7+ scoreless innings, and four relievers contributed six scoreless appearances as well.
Cliff Lee ended his own historic run with his first poor start of the season, allowing more runs in that one start (5) than in his first seven combined (4) and nearly as many extra bases. Lee's historically good launch to the season got heavy press coverage, and he still leads the AL by a significant margin in both ERA and FIP.
The offense continued to struggle to stop continuing to struggle, but the problem shifted as some hitters showed some at least signs of recovering (Hafner, Garko), others showed at least an up-and-down tendency (Peralta, Dellucci), while still others displayed an increasingly chornic-looking awfulness (Cabrera, Gutierrez). Jason Tyner was ditched out of a need to summon Jeremy Sowers for a spot start. Sowers was demoted and replaced the next day by Michael Aubrey, a highly touted prospect around 2004 who has been chronically injured ever since. Aubrey made contact in every plate appearance and sent his first major league hit over the Cincinnati fence, and to nobody's particular surprise got more playing time than Andy Marte.
Post of the week: Should we talk about it?
Who fed it: Despite disappointing results, many Indians had a great week, none moreso than Ben Francisco, who piled up five singles, three doubles and a home run in just 18 at-bats, good for a 1359 OPS. Sabathia delivered the club's best start of the week and arguably the whole season, a complete-game shutout in which he faced 32 batters, only two of whom even reached second base, in both cases with two outs. Carmona, Byrd and Laffey each contributed a seven-inning gem, combining to allow only one run, one walk, one HBP and one extra-base hit (a double). Rafael Perez added four more scoreless appearances and hasn't allowed a run in more than three weeks, spanning 11 games. Jorge Julio continued his march on the Circle of Trust, retiring all four batters he faced, two on strikeouts; he's now retired 21 of his last 25 batters, allowing just two singles and two walks. Peralta chose feast over famine with a 1038 OPS, including two doubles and two home runs. Jason Tyner exceeded our wildest expectations, getting released before he could make our wretched offense any worse. Absolute Best: Francisco. Relative Best: Tyner.
Who fed it breakdown: What if Travis Hafner rebuilt his swing and nobody noticed? With half the week's games in the NL, Hafner had a limited role but still produced a home run and three walks — and in fact, he has a very healthy .318/.483/.545 — that's 1028 — over his ten games, which included seven starts and three pinch-hitting shots. It's far too soon to announce that he's back, or even to have any real optimism, but considering his OPS was well under 600 for a month of games before that, it's at least an encouraging sign. Garko, meanwhile, slugged 700 this week with two doubles and two home runs but drew no walks, and he's drawn only two walks in 75 PA over the past four weeks.
Who ate it: Gutierrez is playing himself out of a job completely, or at least into a significantly reduced role, and this week, he failed to reach base even once in ten trips to the plate, which included five strikeouts and a GIDP. His OPS for May is 328, and it's just 545 for April and May combined (that is, the whole season except for his heroic Opening Day act on March 31). Dellucci was also terrible this week, managing just a single in 16 at-bats; he's also having a terrible May (444 OPS) but at least had a good April (871). Cabrera managed just two singles in 17 at-bats (285 OPS) and is carrying a 492 OPS all the way back to April 6. Betancourt retired just one batter out of four and ominously did not appear in any other game. Absolute Worst: Dellucci. Relative Worst: Gutierrez.
Who ate it breakdown: As noted above, the weakness of our offensive attack was nowhere near as widespread this week as it was at the start of the month — the team hit just .232 and slugged .423, but if you exclude AbaCab, Gutierrez and Dellucci, the other 11 position players hit .278 and slugged .523 — more than respectable. This is not to prescribe just leaving those three out of the lineup, as this is just a tiny slice of the season. But it is nice to know that based on this past week's numbers at least, it is possible for us to field a lineup that can produce good numbers.
The other guys. false alarms and open questions: Will be posted later.
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Game Forty-One: Indians 4, Athletics 2
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Aaron Laffey | .316 | Franklin Gutierrez | -.144 |
| Masa Kobayashi | .169 | Rafael Betancourt | -.134 |
| Jhonny Peralta | .119 | Kelly Shoppach | -.052 |
The streak is dead. Long live the streak!
Aaron Laffey gave up an unearned run in the second inning after he threw a ball past Ryan Garko into right field. So the run's really his fault, but it won't show up in his ERA, for a pitcher can't control what happens after he makes his pitch..even if he's the one fielding the ball.
As in the other two games in this series, the offense was sporadic, but when the starting pitching has been this good, sporadic is good enough. An inning after the Athletics tied the game, the Indians scored two runs on two singles. Grady Sizemore got hit with a pitch, and Jhonny Peralta took a walk. Ben Francisco singled in Sizemore, and after Ryan Garko popped out, Travis Hafner drove Peralta home.
Aaron Laffey made sure the Indians couldn't justify sending him down, pitching seven efficient innings. He struck out 6, a season high, and his out distribution was different as well (5 ground outs, 9 fly outs). Though Jeremy Sowers will start tomorrow against the Reds, Laffey will stay in the rotation.
The biggest development of today's game came at its end; Rafael Betancourt came on in the ninth to close things out, but was pulled after loading the bases. The question "Would Wedge have done this if it was Joe Borowski?" came immediately to mind. Having no official closer has made Eric Wedge turn off the bullpen auto-pilot, going with the hot arm rather than the pre-printed script. Masa Kobayashi came in, quieted things down, and probably earned himself the honor of keeping Borowski's seat warm.
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Game Twenty-Nine: Indians 3, Mariners 2 (11)
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Paul Byrd | .540 | David Dellucci | -.248 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | .479 | Rafael Betancourt | -.182 |
| Travis Hafner | .233 | Casey Blake | -.152 |
This was one of those game which would have been devastating had the Indians not won it. Paul Byrd pitched into the eighth inning, allowing no runs. Of course, the Indians only had a one-run lead, but there was only the matter of Rafael Betancourt pitching the ninth. Right?
Well, the run wasn't really due to Betancourt's pitching. Ichiro singled to start the inning, but after that it was the Cleveland defense that pushed the run home. Betancourt first threw a wild pitch, which if you've seen Rafael pitch you'd be shocked at. Then Ichiro attempted to steal third, and Victor Martinez got off a good throw. Too bad we'll never know if he would have thrown Ichiro out or not, since Casey Blake didn't catch the throw. The ball went down the third base line, and just like that the game was tied. Victor's feed was slightly off-center, and Blake tried to catch and tag in the same motion. Even if Ichio is safe, he's still on third, and given how both offenses hit, it was not a given that they'd get the runner in with less than two outs.
So the game went to extra innings. Enter Masa Kobayashi, who on the first pitch of the inning grooved a fastball to Richie Sexson, Now the Indians were down 2-1, and Seattle closer JJ Putz started to warm in the bullpen. The same guy who lead baseball in WXRL last season (Betancourt was second). As it turned, it wasn't a good game to be a very good reliever, for Putz struck out Travis Hafner to start the inning, but then allowed three straight base runners to load the bases. Then he walked Grady Sizemore to force in a run and the tie the game. He struck out Casey Blake and David Dellucci to extend the game, though.
The Indians won the game in the eleventh in a similar fashion off of Mark Lowe and Sean Green. After Victor Martinez flied out, Jhonny Peralta walked, Travis Hafner doubled against the no-doubles defense, and Jamey Carroll reached via a HBP. This time, however, the big play came with two outs. Franklin Gutierrez struck out, leaving everyone to gnash their teeth at the probability that the Indians would leave the bases loaded again. But Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single to right and those depressing thoughts evaporated quickly away.
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Week In Review: April 22-28
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The series: Visited the Royals (win, win, win) and hosted the Yankees (win, win, loss, loss).
The big story: There were several, and perhaps the biggest was simply that we had a strong week, winning five of seven to move into second place. But the most significant development for the 2008 season going forward was C.C. Sabathia's total U-turn from trainwreck to dominant starter. Sabathia gave up just one run over 14 innings, striking out 11 hapless Royals in the first game and tossing an 8-inning gem in which only five Yankees reached base in the second. This pair of consecutive starts was one of the best of Sabathia's career, surpassed in 2007 only by his back-to-back shutouts in June. At the same time, his first four starts were so horrendous (13.50 ERA) that even after the extreme two-start bounce-back, his ERA is still the worst in the majors at 7.88 – even worse than Barry Zito's. Sabathia's excellence ended up being of no real immediate consequence, as the Indians turned the first one into a 15-1 rout, then handed Sabathia a tough 1-0 loss in the second.
In other news: Jake Westbrook unexpectedly went on the Disabled List with a lower-back muscle strain. Initially expected to miss only a few starts, he's now expected to be out for a full month after his symptoms persisted for a full week. His injury, combined with a rain-delay-induced double-header, resulted in a flurry of call-ups and send-downs as the Indians played with an extra outfielder for a few days (Ben Francisco), swapped out for a spot starter (Jeremy Sowers) on Saturday, swapped out for another extra outfielder (Brad Snyder) on Sunday, and finally on Monday swapped out for Aaron Laffey, who will join the rotation at least for the following week. Both starters made fine 2008 debuts against the Yankees, with Laffey looking significantly stronger than Sowers even though the box scores will claim the opposite.
Lee deepened his improbable run as the game's most effective pitcher with a complete game shutout, as the national media joined Indians fans in collectively dropping their jaws. The lineup blew up for 24 runs in the first two games but then fizzled with just 14 runs in the next five, a trend led by Casey Blake, who posted a 2125 OPS in two games against the Royals but just a 350 OPS starting all four games against the Yankees. The post-Borowski bullpen started to come together as Kobayashi asserted himself with a few strong setup performances while Betancourt breezed through his first two Save opportunities, making the closer's job look suspiciously un-different from his old setup-man gig.
Adam Miller finally made his official 2008 debut in Buffalo, following a few weeks rehabbing a blister and a few weeks in extended spring training. Miller pitched nine scoreless innings in two starts while continuing to build up his pitch count, and his velocity was intact even if his peripherals weren't. Miller's return, coupled with Brian Slocum's solid start, suggests that the Indians remain an absurd eight-deep in big-league-ready starting pitchers, even after putting Westbrook on the DL and shipping Sean Smith off to Colorado. At the same time, David Huff, 39th overall draft pick in 2006, overcame a rocky first two starts to pitch his third straight gem for the Akron Aeros, allowing just one run (on a solo shot) and 13 baserunners against 19 strikeouts over the three games, and he picked off a couple guys, too. If Huff continues to emerge, that may further tempt the Indians to move Miller into the big-league bullpen.
Post of the week: Now taking nominations.
Who fed it: Sabathia dominated in two starts while Lee was near-spotless in his one. Julio excelled in two low-leverage outings, while Kobayashi and Betancourt settled into their new roles; the three relievers faced 32 batters and got 29 outs, including two erased on double-plays, and allowed no one past first base. Blake had the best all-around numbers of any hitter on the week but was abysmal against the Yankees. Victor batted .375, achieving a 902 OPS on the week with (once again) no home runs. Dellucci and Peralta each combined a solid average with a pair of home runs. Seemingly competing for at bats, Michaels and Gutierrez both accounted for a major chunk of our otherwise anemic offense against the Yankees, the former batting .400 while the latter slugged .600, and they looked damned good in the field, too. Special mention must be given to Aaron Laffey, who no-hit the Yankees for five innings and, through sheer horrendous luck alone, gave up four runs in the 6th when he deserved to give up, at most, one. Absolute Best: Sabathia. Relative Best: Lee.
Who ate it: It's hard to say what the worst part of Ryan Garko's week was, the .042 average, the .115 OBP or the .083 slugging. I'm going with the .042 average, because he was just one walk short of decent walk rate, and hey, his isolated power is almost 2.0! Unfortunately, even those minimal contributions were mostly confined to last Tuesday's game, and Garko's line for the last five games was .000/.048/.000. Aside from Garko, the rest of the Indians put up a more-than-respectable .302/.360/.451 line for the week. Hafner continued his harrowing march to the bottom, with week-by-week OPS totals of 824, 761, 592 and (this week) 512 — or, if you prefer, he has a 559 OPS over his last 17 games. Absolute Worst: Garko. Relative Worst: Garko. Twenty Other Kinds Of Worst: Garko. And Yet The Guy Who Really Makes Me Suicidal Is Still: Hafner.
The other guys: We made Wang look like Bob Gibson. The rest of it, pretty fuzzy, maybe I'll fill it in later, does anybody really care about this section?
False alarms:
- Cliff Lee, greatest pitcher in the universe.
- Chien-Ming Wang, second greatest.
- C.C. Sabathia, third greatest (he's actually about tenth).
- Ben Francisco in a Cleveland uniform.
- Ryan Garko, worst hitter ever.
- Jhonny Peralta on web gems last night.
- J-Mike, serviceable big-league hitter.
Open questions:
- How long will Jake be out, and once he returns, will he be totally awesome, or merely awesome?
- How long can Chicago stay at the top of the standings?
- Since any blogger writing in his/her parents' basement in his/her underwear can notice when a reliever's velocity is down 3-5 mph, and might actually write about it without the team's permission, what exactly do we need newspaper columnists for?
- Too soon to start panicking about losing Cliff Lee after 2010?
- When the hell is Slider's birthday, anyway?
- Can Kobayashi confuse hitters with his deathballs all season like Okajima did?
- Can Julio be useful?
- How long will we keep marching Stomp Lewis out there with reduced velocity?
- Just how bad will the game have to be going before we see Mastny or Breslow again, and how bad will they be after a 15-day layoff?
- Has anyone noticed that Eddie Mujica is in his last option year? Does anyone care?
- How much better can Laffey be than he was last year? Is his ceiling is higher than we think?
- Can Steel Rafi get settled and find some semblance of his 2007 consistency?
- How many relievers would have to be failing completely for Adam Miller to get the call to the big-league bullpen? Do we even want to see him there?
- Could Sowers be on the block soon?
- Is it really possible for Marte to spend 120 more days on the roster than Ben Francisco this season, and yet still get fewer at bats?
- Is Wedge basically just testing Marte to see how long it takes him to get an obviously bad attitude, at which point they ship him out?
- Will Shapiro fall for this kind of nonsense again?
24 comments | 0 recs
Game Twenty-Four: Indians 4, Yankees 3
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Masa Kobayashi | .253 | Casey Blake | -.261 |
| Victor Martinez | .212 | Ryan Garko | -.123 |
| Travis Hafner | .156 | Franklin Gutierrez | -.106 |
Between FOX's sycophantic devotion to the NFL Draft and Tim McCarver's hysterics after watching Kobayashi's straight-leg windup, the Indians beat a reasonable facsimile of the Yankees to win their fifth in row and reach the .500 mark for the first time since April 8th.
Jeremy Sowers had the good fortune to face New York's B lineup, and although there were hard-hit outs, his velocity peaked around 90s and his pitches stayed away from the middle of the plate. With Jake Westbrook now out for at least another month, he's now competing with Aaron Laffey for a rotation spot.
After the Indians scored three runs against a young and frustrated Ian Kennedy, the game sped merrily along until the sixth, and then interesting things started to happen. Sowers ran out of gas in midway through the sixth inning, so his college teammate Jensen Lewis was called in to bail him out of a bases loaded jam. Lewis struck out pinch-hitter Robinson Cano, but pinch-hitter Jorge Posada cleared the bases by hitting a "triple" into the left field corner. David Dellucci had no business diving for the ball and should have at least prevented the runner from first from scoring.
Lewis stayed on another inning, staggering through the middle of the New York order in the seventh. He struck out an ailing Alex Rodriguez after a lengthy at-bat; the pitcher kept missing his location, and the hitter kept missing the mistakes.
By the time Masa Kobayashi entered the game, the lineup he was facing was filled with the usual suspects; each of the four starters who started the game on the bench were back in the lineup. But no matter, for the Yankees had not seen Kobayashi's bizarre windup, and it was obvious that even after seeing a couple pitches, the hitters swung not merely because they were fooled by his pitches but because of fear of what he was capable of...sorry, I got carried away, the hitters were actually just fooled by his pitches.
Joba Chamberlain wasn't available because of some obscure reason, so the Yankees elected to go with Ross Ohlendorf to pitch the ninth. Grady Sizemore and David Dellucci singled with one out, then Ohlendorf uncorked a wild pitch. Travis Hafner was then walked (thank you, Joe) to bring up Victor Martinez, who dumped a single into shallow left to win the game.
4 comments | 0 recs
Game 2: Indians 7, White Sox 2
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Fausto Carmona | .239 | Jhonny Peralta | -.073 |
| Grady Sizemore | .233 | Casey Blake | -.044 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | .075 | Travis Hafner | -.028 |
Beyond the cringeworthy last two innings, a nice all-around effort. Fausto Carmona, beyond a bit of wildness, was indistinguishable from last season. The White Sox pounded his pitches into the ground all night, which can't have been pleasant consider how cold this night was. Fausto had a few pitches get away from him, but he never let those four walks hurt him. You often wonder if a pitcher like Carmona benefits from letting a four-seamer get away from him once in a while, especially if it appears he's not trying to do it. Fear of the unknown, especially if that unknown is a mid-90s fastball, is a powerful resource to tap.
I don't really get sending Carmona out for the seventh. Even the horses aren't conditioned to go more than 100 pitches to start the season, and it should be a priority for the Indians to limit Fausto's unnecessary innings. The whole bullpen was rested, and some guys had a coating of rust on their arms, so why not let him go with an easy six-inning outing?
The offense was very workmanlike, squeezing Javier Vazquez's outing into five innings. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled in Grady Sizemore for the team's third run, a single and two walks made Ozzie Guillen go to the bullpen early. And going to the bullpen to insert your fifth or sixth best reliever is almost always a good thing for the opposing team. Even if the game's close, it means that three or four relievers have to be just about perfect to keep the game within reach. Or that close game can quickly turn into extended garbage time, which in this case it did.
My first impression of Masa Kobayashi was that of a pitcher who absolutely needs to have control of his pitches, for his stuff doesn't look that impressive. White Sox hitters didn't have too much trouble making contact, and it doesn't appear that his windup is that unorthodox. But a first impression is still only one impression, and the cold weather may have affected him.
Likewise, Jorge Julio labored to finish his inning of work, allowing the only home run of the game and allowing two other baserunners. Stuff has never been an issue for Jorge (the major reason why each new club sees the potential of a quality setup man in him), but as we've seen with guys like Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera, stuff can't cover for bad location or inconsistency. The Indians aren't risking that much, especially with how they're using him, though.
But overall, there's a lot that's gone right these first couple games, with Carmona's outing topping the list.
41 comments | 0 recs
Why We'll Win

My real prediction: Another long season for Tigers fans.
I learned something from my post yesterday, from the way it not only didn't provoke much discussion, it actually seemed to chill discussion everywhere on the site. It just seemed to trigger the latent resignation that flows in our veins as Cleveland fans. Maybe I've should have known better, maybe I thought your intelligence would kick in, maybe I owe you an apology.
But people ... how could you fall for that?
Have you forgotten who and what this team really is?
The guys who went 96-66, the best record in baseball.
The guys who played through snow-outs, who played three home openers and won all three.
The guys who set the tone early by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit.
The guys with the best and deepest rotation, the most dominant 1-2 punch, the Cobra, the best big three, and the goddam Cy Young winner.
The guys who beat the best pitcher in the game five times in one season, when no other team had ever beat him three times.
The guys who stalled out in June and July but never collapsed, and the guys who charged back to dominate down the stretch.
The guys who took a surging Twins team, coming off a 9-3 run and threatening to get back in the race, and swept them both home and way, six wins over ten days , to end their season.
The guys who unceremoniously booted the Tigers out of the race with yet another sweep, sending them 7.5 games back when they could have been 1.5 games back. That's the photo at the top, the first game of that series, Casey Blake with the walkoff in the 11th.
The guys who delivered a vicious beatdown to the Yankees in the playoffs, chilling and silencing a Yankee Stadium crowd. The guys who – let's just put it out there – nearly sent the best team in the game home early.

And yes, the guys who know all about pi ... and all about pie.
(Purely as an aside, when you do an image search for Chris Antonetti, one of the first results to pop up is this, which I take as just further proof that people must really, really love being a part of the Indians organization.)
Yeah, that's right ... those guys. You love those guys, remember? And they're more or less awesome, remember?
Those guys are back. Those guys have gotten better.
Those guys are going to win this year, and this is why.
- Pure talent. Seriously, did you really think the Tigers had more pure talent than the Indians? Sure, the Tigers had some injuries, but they had a bunch of fluke seasons, and all it got them was 88 wins. They had to import Miguel Cabrera just to try to close the gap.
Let me tell you about a difference in talent. On our club, we make Cliff Lee fight and practically grovel for the last spot in the rotation. On their club, they trade for "the Cliff Lee of the NL" and hand him the #3 starter job. When your #7 starter is about as good as their #3, that isn't just us having depth, it's them being in trouble.
People ... half our roster was born in the 80's. We aren't on the wrong side of 30, we're on the right side of 28. Our roster is younger, less injury prone, and full of guys who could take small or large steps forward. Garko or even Peralta could hit 30 home runs, and Sizemore could make a run at an MVP. Our catcher created 109 runs last season, theirs only 59 – and our guy is 29, while theirs is 36.
The Indians won 96 games last season, and our players as a group are on the rise. The Tigers won 88 games last season, and their players on the whole are in decline. MIguel Cabrera isn't enough to close that gap, and they traded most of their best young talent to get him. The Tigers may have a hair more raw talent than the Indians on their roster, but too much of that talent is old and breaking down. - Regression is a bitch ... for the other guys. It's the most clear-cut, powerful and undeniable force in baseball – stronger than the age curve and more reliable than platoon splits. The Tigers may seem poised to bounce back from a down year, but their 88 wins were propped up by a number of flukey career seasons, while our 96 wins by and large were not.
Just look at the BABIP for the two teams' regulars. The bottom of the list is Sheffield, who wasn't so much unlucky as he was playing hurt. Then there's Hafner, who definitely suffered some bad luck even if that wasn't his only problem. Then there's Inge, who won't be a factor, and Victor, who will. Check it out: Victor put up downballot-MVP type numbers despite hitting into some of the worst luck on either team. It would be hard to bet on him improving on 2007, but his luck probably will.
Now look at the top of the list – Ordoñez at .381, Granderson at .360, Polanco at .346, compared with their career marks of .314, .344 and .314. And not even listed there – Renteria at .375, against a career mark of .322. The snapback to reality on these guys is going to be enormous – PECOTA is mean-projecting a 56-run drop in production from Ordoñez alone – essentially negating the upgrade from Inge to Cabrera – to go with a 40-run drop for Granderson and a 30-run drop for Renteria.
In fairness, PECOTA predicts every player to drop after a good season, but this is an extreme case. Granderson production rate is not expected to fall off much – he will be 27 after all – but then again, Sizemore's high-looking .333 BABIP is actually below his career average, meaning he too was slightly unlucky, and Hafner also is a good bet to improve at least somewhat on 2007. As for the Tigers, their best bounceback candidate is a 39-year-old who's missed 150 games over the past two seasons.
So regression is a bitch for the TIgers, who won't score 900 runs this season, let alone 1000. But for the Indians, regression helps our lineup and work out about even in the rotation, where stellar seasons from Sabathia and Carmona were evenly matched by trainwrecks from Lee, Sowers and Westbrook.
And you know who else is due for some good luck with the balls in play? Joe Borowski. - Stellar depth. Another one I can't believe you fell for. How many teams have Josh Barfield as their 4th middle infielder, or Ben Francisco as their 6th outfielder, or Andy Marte as a backup third baseman, or Jeremy Sowers as their 7th starter, or Tom Mastny as their 9th reliever? I'll tell you how many, none. Every one of those guys would be playing in many other teams' lineups, rotations and bullpens. It's totally ridiculous, and it's a great advantage, and it will absolutely matter this year, as it matters every year for almost every team.
- Stellar youth. Of course young players are inconsistent, but they improve more often than they decline. Our youngest and least experienced key players will start at 2B and RF this season. Any risk there is strongly mitigated by the fact that for both players, much of their value is in their exceptional defense, which is far more predictable. And besides, the bar is incredibly low for each – the chance that we'll get less production out of those two positions in 2008 than we did in 2007 is practically nil.
- Babied arms. We have the best medical staff in the game, and they know how to protect pitchers. Case in point: Westbrook has never been more effective than in the second half last season, and this Spring he looked even better. Carmona is going to be fine, he breezed economically through almost every start last year, hardly ever pitching under stress. C.C. may show a little wear, but it won't break us. And as for the other guys, who cares? Our guys break down less than on any other team, and besides, we've got that stellar depth, too.
- Wacky bullpens – not a problem. You don't ever really know about bullpens. Some years they collapse, some years they're stellar. Here's the thing though ... last year, our bullpen collapsed and was stellar. Just look at the body count: Foulke, Oldberto, Matt Miler, J.D., Fernando – and most of the flame-outs were happening while Sowers, Lee and Westbrook were struggling to get into the 4th inning.
That's enough to break most teams' bullpens, which in turn is enough to break most teams – but not the Indians. They planned ahead, stocked up. Spent most of the decade acquiring and developing arms, then picked up four veterans in the offseason – and they took good care of Rafael Betancourt. That gave them a full boat of experienced guys in Cleveland, plus 4-5 young guys on the brink in Buffalo – plus Jensen Lewis in Akron.
So despite all the flame-outs, the Indians finished with the 6th best bullpen ERA in the majors – not only didn't the bullpen sink the Indians, it was actually a strength. The Indians keep 21 pitchers on the 40-man roster for just 12 big-league jobs, and this is the reason why.
And now they've done it again, picking up Kobayashi, Julio, and Breslow to replace Oldberto, Miller and Fultz. And this year, we've got Perez and Lewis taking the place of two multi-year head-scratchers. And young'uns Mastny, Mujica, Santos and Stevens in Buffalo. And who's to say we won't have another surprise breakout like Lewis' last year – Scott Lewis? J.D. Martin? Tony Sipp? Adam Mller? It's not that any one of these guys is likely to contribute, but the Indians have a ton of pitchers in various states of development and repair, and they basically never trade any. At some point, it becomes more likely than not that one or more will contribute, even from the rehab bin.
The Indians start off with a strong bullpen, full of guys with strong track records and hard-to-hit stuff, and it's considerably more stocked than Detroit's . But more than that, the Indians are very well prepared for the inevitable struggles, injuries and flame-outs, and the Tigers are not prepared at all. Wacky bullpens can sink almost any team, but they'll have a lot of trouble sinking these Indians. - Good timing. Wedge finally figured out how to beat Pythagoras last season, so we're all good now.
- That guy, finally. It's an even-numbered year, and that can only mean one thing: Miller Time.
I don't know if it'll be in the bullpen or the rotation, but Atom
Miller will be healthy this year, and that means a bunch of big-league
hitters are going to be striking out.
- Lack of Vizquel, Thome, Manny, Millwood, and soon Sabathia, too. It may be strange to say that losing Sabathia is part of why we'll win, but it is. This team, as much or as any team in professional sports, is run by grownups. They respect players, and their affection is palpable, but when it comes to making decisions, they leave their sentimentality at the door. They don't kid themselves – they know you can find great insights in statistical analysis, but they know it doesn't have all the answers. They're rigorous. They're pros. They've avoided the Big Mistake that sinks the season – or multiple seasons. And they've never, ever made decisions based on trying to save face with the fans.
They've built a great team with that approach, and I'll tell you just one more thing about them ... - Grit. Dammit, I'm telling you these guys got a lot of grit. Victor's got grit. Shoppach is brimming with grit. Sizemore will be diving in the outfield when he's 50. Stomp Lewis has to take medication just to keep his grit under control. Borowski has nothing but grit, but he'd never complain about that, because he's so damned gritty. Betancourt, he's got all that and a bag of grit.
And our much-maligned left field platoon, Dellucci and Michaels, those guys've got more grit than most entire rosters. You people should be worshipping at their gritty, clutchy, diving, ass-slapping feet.
And what I'm trying to tell you here, and I don't even know if it's right or natural or legal, but ... Diamondview's got grit. I don't know how they did it, but they got grit into the Diamondview somehow, and now it's spitting out chemistry and intangibles and That Elusive It Factor along with the usual performance projections and market undervaluations. We've never seen anything like it, but I'm telling you ... Diamondview's got grit.
And by the way ... Scott Elarton? Tom Mastny? Ben Francisco? That's right, even our depth has grit, which means that even our grit has depth. If somebody gritty were to go down – and they often do, because that comes with playing the game the right way, you know – we've got someone else ready to step in and play just as gritty – someone gritty enough to start on most teams. It's totally out of control. It's enough to make Darin Erstad retire and Joe Morgan's head explode.
So let me sum it up for you. We've got the talent, the timing, the grit, the smarts, the chemistry and the momentum. We've got everything worth having on a ballclub, and the only question to be settled is whether we're the best team in the game or merely the best in our division.
90 comments | 4 recs
Spring Training Roundup
Today's shining example of kinesiology in action comes courtesy of Cliff Lee, who's been doing what it takes to prepare for the 2008 season.
And just in case the sit-ups don't work, he'll have to locate his pitches better, especially if he doesn't alter his pitching mentality.
"That's his aggressive nature, going right after guys," Willis said. "It's hard to find a happy medium, because you never want to take away a guy's aggressiveness."
Lee is the favorite to be the Indians' fifth starter by virtue of his guaranteed contract, although there is a limit to the Indians' patience. What worked in 2005 isn't necesarily going to work in 2008: unless a pitcher is blessed with unhittable stuff, hitters will eventually catch onto your patterns. And if you can't locate the one pitch you rely on, well, 2007 happens.
Masa Kobayashi made his Spring Training debut on Friday, and the batters that faced him came away impressed - if that means anything:
<snip>
"It looks like he's deceptive and he has pretty good control," said Michaels.
Probably the most interesting story of Spring Training, though, is the resumption of a long-simmering feud between Casey Blake and Travis Hafner. The feud, strangely enough, surfaces only in Spring Training, when stories are sparse. This year's point of contention: talking on the cell phone.
"I can't take this anymore," said Hafner. "He's getting a cab. I give him a ride, and he's on his cell phone all the time. I can't listen to the radio, and I can't talk to him."
Hafner, seemingly plotting revenge, said he's trained his 20-pound Australian terrier, Rudi, to attack Blake.
"The dog tried to bite my pinky toe," said an unconcerned Blake. "When we first got down here, I'd send my girls over to walk it. They're 4 and 6 so what does that tell you about the dog?"
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