With all the recent call-ups and send-downs, it's a good time to review the service time for our younger players.  As first discussed in an article a couple years back, service time considerations can play a significant role in determining the exact timing of who gets to play in the majors when, and for how long.  It rarely would play a decisive role, especially for a team in contention, but the Indians keep lots of players hanging around on the bubble — could be up, could be down, no real right or wrong answer — so service time logically becomes a factor.  And in any season in which contending starts to look more like a pipe dream — and we're just about there — service time logically becomes more significant, as compared to an all-out win-right-now approach.

All else being equal — and it rarely is — there are two key events a team would rather delay.  One is free agency, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with at least six full years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player is set up to end seasons with something slightly less than a full year. The other, arguably more important, is arbitration, which occurs when a player ends the regular season with roughly 2.8 years of service time; the team can forestall this by making sure a player (one who is likely to be in the majors most or all of the following year) ends the current season with 125 days or fewer of service time, in addition to any full years he might have accrued already.

Many of our players will be eligible for free agency at the end of the last guaranteed year of their current contracts, whether this year or many years into the future, so we needn't discuss those players here:  Sabathia, Westbrook, Hafner, Byrd, Blake, Martinez, Borowski, Dellucci, Lee, Sizemore, Kobayashi, Peralta, Betancourt, Carroll and Elarton.  Rick Bauer, if he sticks — do we ever get that lucky? — will be eligible for arbitration, but he won't be a free agent until after 2010.  Brendan Donnelly — remember him? — will be a free agent after 2009, if he can make it back to the majors this season.  If not, we will have the option to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, retaining his rights through 2010.  (Other minor leaguers like Todd Linden, Jason Tyner and Jorge Velandia are in similar situations but aren't worth detailing.)

Carmona will not be eligible for free agency if his first club option is declined for 2012, but he will be eligible for arbitration of course.  Carmona ended the 2007 season with 1.169 service time.  (That's one year, plus 169 days — there are 183 days in the major league season, but once a player reaches 172, it counts as a full year.)  Essentially, because the Indians opted for a post-closer-implosion demotion back in 2006, he won't be eligible for free agency until 2013, rather than 2012, and yet he was still going to reach arbitration for 2009 as a Super Two, rather than having to wait until 2010 as a fourth-year player.  The delayed free agency explains in part why the Indians were able to get him to agree to a club option for 2012 rather than another guaranteed year.  On the other hand, his impending Super Two status explains why his salary will shoot into the millions in just the second year of the deal, in contrast with Sizemore and Peralta, who didn't receive that kind of raise until year three of their deals, which were similarly timed.  This stuff is arcane and dry, but it always shows up in the multiyear deals.

JEREMY SOWERS — 1.012 to start 2008, 1.105 estimated/best-guess to end 2008, 1.125 max to end 2008.  In another piece of cagey roster management, Sowers had spent exactly two days in the majors this season to make his two starts prior to this week, so the most he can finish with this season is 1.125.  That almost certainly avoids Super Two status for 2010, pushing arbitration back to 2011 and free agency to after 2013.

AARON LAFFEY — 0.058 start, 1.040 est., 1.040 max.  In the majors since April 28, Laffey may well reach that maximum 1.040, given the hits our rotation depth has taken.  Still, if Carmona comes back on schedule, don't be surprised if Laffey gets sent down in favor of giving Sowers some extended time in the majors — after all, Sowers' service time is already "optimized," while Laffey's is not.  Laffey would need 41 more days in the minors this season, or 52 days in two different seasons, to push his walk year from 2013 to 2014.  Now on track to reach arbitration for 2011, he'd have to spend about 85 more days in the minors this season, or 96 days across two seasons, to push that back to 2012.

ASDRUBAL CABRERA — 0.055 start, 0.145 est., 1.055 max.  Demoted just this week, Cabrera now has 125 days of service time, but there's a presumption that he'll be in the majors not just for all of 2009 forward, but also for 28 more days in September when rosters expand (or perhaps more like 20 if Buffalo makes the playoffs).  If that's the only time he spends in Cleveland the rest of the season, Cabrera will finish with 153 days, putting him on track as a Super Two for 2011 and free agency after 2014.  If he spends 47 more days in the majors this season, including September, he'll be on track to reach free agency a year earlier, after 2013.  If, on the other hand, he spends the rest of this season in the minors, including September, or 123 days between this season and one other season, he'll fall out of the 2011 Super Two class, reaching arbitration for 2012 and free agency after 2014.

JOSH BARFIELD — 2.000 start, 2.112 est., 2.112 max.  In demoting Barfield to start the season, the Indians pushed his free agency back a year by mid-April.  Having just been called up a week into June, he'll end the year with no more than 2.112 — less than three weeks shy of the arbitration threshold.  This is not entirely a coincidence, a tangible element in the organization's desire to increase his trade value.  Barfield is a valuable trade chip, but his up-and-down track record carries an element of risk.  Keeping him out of arbitration makes him more attractive by reducing risk on the payroll — the Indians can say, essentially, that this player will still be making the minimum in 2009, so if he doesn't work out, the sunk cost is minimal, and if he does work out, the team still keeps the player for three additional seasons.  Of course, the same is true if the Indians keep him.

So basically, for both our pair of soft-tossing lefties and our pair of soft-hitting middle infielders, we have a presently less-shiny guy whose status is totally conducive to keeping him the majors, and a presently more-shiny guy whose status would improve substantially with a little more time in the minors.  Sowers and Barfield are "optimized," while Laffey and Cabrera are tantalizingly close to the thresholds for extending the team's rights.  Moreover, given the youth of the non-optimized, the walk-year seasons that hang in the balance are pretty likely to be valuable ones — in 2014, Laffey will be 29, and Cabrera will be 28.  That extra season under team control will significantly raise the value of each of these guys as an asset — not enough to avoid trading a starter, mind you, but we want it.

BEN FRANCISCO — 0.071 start, 1.049 est., 1.049 max.  Ben is looking unlikely to be optioned to the minors this season, although as one of the only position players with an option remaining, some combination of a short-term roster crunch and/or a slump could still make it happen.  Assuming he stays all season, he'll accrue 150 days of service time.  (That's 4 in April + 26 in May + 120 from June through September 28), which will put him at 1.049 (71 + 150 = 221, 221 - 172 for the full-year rollover = 49, thus 1.049.)  That will have him reaching free agency after 2013, unless he spends another two months in the minors at some point, which would push it back to after 2014.  He's on track to reach arbitration for 2011, unless he spends another 105 days in the minors at some point, pushing it back to 2012.

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via www.fangraphs.com

This was an important win for several reasons. One, it got them to within a game of second place. And more importantly, it, along with a White Sox loss, stopped at least for the moment the precipitous advance of Chicago's lead in the AL Central. The Indians are in survival mode now, with not a whole lot separating them from falling out the race, for even though there's still time left in the season to erase an 8 or 9 game deficit, some key player decisions have a shorter time frame in which to be made.

As the WPA notes, Sabathia essentially won the game himself. The Indians scored a run in the bottom of the first, and the offense disappeared after that. Sabathia went the rest of the way with no real problems. The last Minnesota batter to reach base was Joe Mauer to lead off the fourth inning. He was erased by a Justin Morneau double play. It was an easy 1-0 shutout, if that's possible.

Josh Barfield, who was playing in just his second major-league game of the season, had to leave after straining a finger while swinging. Judging by Josh's comments after the game, he shouldn't have to go on the DL.

via www.fangraphs.com

Paul Byrd being able to outpitch Justin Verlander appears to break several laws of physics. But the guy who sits in the mid-80s and goes down from there was better than the guy who sits in the mid-90s and more or less stays there tonight. He got through 7 innings without really being in much trouble; the two runs he gave up were both on solo home runs. Normally Byrd is allowing a couple hits an inning, relying on high-pressure pitches to get him out of jams, but tonight the innings were stress-free.

Ryan Garko had his moment of the season in the eighth inning. After getting back on track in Texas with mainly opposite-field hits, Garko reacted on a pitch down and in, and jerked it out of the park, giving the Indians an important insurance run. The home run came after Garko fouled off several pitches that were on or just off the outside corner; that plate coverage kept him at the plate, and he didn't miss the mistake inside. The hours of frustrating batting practice suddenly became worth it.

Joe Borowski has also recovered his 2007 form. His fastball is back to sitting in the high 80s, and while he didn't have good control of his slider tonight, his velocity is now good enough to get by most nights.

The Indians are still in survival mode, with not a whole lot separating them from irrelevancy, but at least some players are finally turning things around. Hopefully the bottom has already happened.

The series:  Hosted the White Sox (loss, win, loss) and visited the Royals (win, loss, loss).  Blah.  Went 2-4.  Blah.  With a 4.25 ERA.  Blah.  Scored four runs per game.  Blah.  Hit .243/.318/.435.  Blah.  Not the worst you've ever seen, just.  Blah.  Certainly not at all good either, though.  Blah.

The big story:  As outright awfulness receded into mere malaise, word finally started to leak out that the respective collapses of two of the Indians' best hitters, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, probably owe more to injuries than to anything else.  In retrospect, the profundity of Hafner's problems this season never really made all that much sense as a simple collapse of skills, and there is no real precedent for a hitter's version of Steve Blass Disease.  Still, perhaps because of our habitual fatalism, Indians fans never much figured Hafner was injured, so much so that when he was finally placed on the DL this past Friday, many fans speculated that the injury was phony, merely an excuse to make room on the roster for another player while Hafner was sent away to clear his head for a while.

The Indians told local media that Hafner would be available to play first base during Interleague play, and then he wasn't.  The Indians told local media nothing about Joe Borowski's triceps strain, counting on them to not even notice a substantial drop in velocity, let alone write about it.  And until this weekend, the Indians said nothing about Hafner's shoulder being a significant problem, and they never mentioned that it was probably Victor's hamstring that had hamstrung his power, again counting on them not to notice or report it.  Local media was shocked — shocked! — that the team had not been more forthcoming about those injuries, apparently forgetting that the team said nothing in 2006 about Victor playing half the season with a broken toe, or that they already knew that Jhonny Peralta had a vision problem.

Injuries happen, and players try to play through them, and sometimes teams know, and sometimes teams agree to let the player try.  Knowledge about injuries represents a competitive advantage in many sports, and since MLB is not yet dominated by gambling as some pro sports are, reporting requirements are meager.  Socker sniffed, "A credibility gap is developing between the Indians and the local media ... I find it difficult to believe that people in authority at Progressive Field think it serves their purpose to create an aura of distrust between the team and the media."  (Does he really not see this as a self-condemnation, as he implies that he has nothing to report if the team doesn't spoon-feed it to him?)

These developments bring little solace to Indians fans, as players sometimes don't heal in the course of one season, and sometimes they don't heal at all.  All it does is lend a small light of understanding on the widespread offensive collapse.  We've got young hitters struggling in their first full season (Gutierrez, Cabrera), streaky mediocrity from a few veterans (Blake, Dellucci), two of our best hitters playing hurt (Martinez, Hafner), and unsteady results from two more (Peralta, Sizemore) — oh, now I get it.  That leaves us with only one everday player totally sucking without even a halfway-decent explanation (Garko), and the slow-head-shaking resignation that all this crap apparently really can happen to one lineup in one season.

In other news:  Jake Westbrook returned to the rotation with a reasonably solid start, retiring the first 12 batters of the game before succumbing to a series of line-drive hits in the 5th.  Craig Breslow was claimed off waivers by the Twins, and Jorge Julio was designated for assignment to make room for Westbrook.  Hafner's trip to the DL was timed to make room on the roster for Shin-Soo Choo who returned from the DL to play his first big-league game in over a year.  Hafner's absence prompted Wedge to start utilizing his players in more of a rotation, sharing time fairly evenly among Gutierrez, Blake, Aubrey, Choo, Francisco and even Marte.  Adam Miller's finger gave us the finger once again, apparently for the entire season.  Oh, and I guess there was this "triple-steal" thing, supposedly.  Whatever.  We scored a run on that play, which seemed like pretty big news, but on the other hand, we didn't drive in that run, and that didn't seem like news at all.  Blah.

Post of the week:  Looking for nominations as always ...

Who fed it:  Just when we least expected it, Frankie Gutierrez had a huge week in limited playing time, hitting for average (.357), getting on base (five hits, two walks and a HBP) and flashing that enticing power/speed combination with a home run, a triple, and more than one spectacular play in the field.  Peralta had another huge week (1093) and after almost three weeks of hot hitting is on pace for more than 30 home runs.   Blake (1012) and Dellucci (953) were both highly productive in four starts each, and both were bouncing back from substantial two-week slumps (523 and 411).  Sizemore (948) had his worst two games of the year in the past week but still banged out three home runs and a triple; he's basically stayed hot for six weeks solid (947 after May 12).  Masa bounced back from some rough outings last week with two scoreless innings.  Absolute Best:  Peralta.  Relative Best:  Gutierrez.

Who fed it breakdown:  Very slim pickings for standout pitching performances this week, but I'll go with Perez; he gave up one earned run, and one unearned, in the second of his three appearances this week, but those runs were fluke crap, not at all his fault.  He faced 14 batters and induced six grounders and five strikeouts, allowing no walks and just one line drive for a single.  Borowski, meanwhile, allowed three line drives and eight fly balls — eight looooooooooooong fly balls — and, miraculously, no runs on no walks and three hits.  Just ask my shorts.

Who ate it:  Francisco cruelly fell back to earth this week (458), slugging just .208 while drawing more walks (three) in his last 19 PA than he had in his first 82 PA this season (two) — in both respects, possibly a sign that pitchers have started to pitch him more carefully.  Aubrey also struggled (322) to maintain his hot start, getting just one single in his last 11 AB en route back to Buffalo.  Garko's pathetic week (2-for-13, double, 2 BB, 498) was remarkably similar to his prior pathetic week (2-for-11, 2 BB, 490), or for that matter to his whole pathetic last six weeks (.186/.259/.299).  Paul Byrd coughed up 9 ER over 11 IP, and while he walked only one of the 50 batters he faced, he ominously struck out only one as well.  Absolute Worst:  Francisco.  Relative Worst:  Aubrey.

Who ate it breakdown:  As has become the norm over the last few month, Victor was mediocre but not notably awful over the past week, hitting .261/.292/.348.  The real depths of his problems show up over multiple weeks, however, as his line over the past month is .222/.273/.272.  In 88 PA, he's got only four extra base hits — all doubles, of course — and only three non-intentional walks.  It's become a serious breakdown.  Although leading the majors in batting average just three weeks ago, Victor's contributions at the plate have seriously collapsed.  Deepening that black hole in the lineup has been Shoppach, who is just 3-for-31 over the past month while inconsistently filling in for Victor, with two walks and no extra-base hits.

(Part 2 in a series ... see Part 1 - the starters.)

July 18, 2006:

Most fans at this point are sick of the entire Indians roster, and who can blame us?  I don't know if everyone on the roster is "on the table" for trades, but a part of me would like to think that there is no option for improving the roster that Shapiro wouldn't consider.  That nobody is untouchable.

In theory, nobody is untouchable.  With the right offer of players and/or money, there is no player in the game who can't be had in a trade.  It's just a question of making the right offer.  So why not consider it?

Funny how we feel exactly the same way, even though the circumstance is very different.  As of that day, in some ways, the Indians had been out of the race for two months — seven games behind the division lead on May 8, 10.5 games behind on May 26, 17 games behind on June 25.  By July 18, the deficit was 21 games, and the Wild Card outlook was hardly any better.  Sabathia spent April on the DL, both Betancourt and Cabrera appeared damaged by the WBC, and if it were possible to make a train out of a sieve and then wreck it, then you'd have a really good metaphor for our infield defense.  We ditched Phllips in favor of Vazquez, but my mid-May we'd already demoted Vazquez in favor of Lou Merloni.

It got real late, real early, but at the same time, the team made the best of that moment's clarity.  Unlike the Expos in 2002 or the Mariners in 2006, we were so clearly out of it that there was no temptation to hope or pretend for another 30 days — not for the players' sake or for the fans.   So there was no reason to make any plays for the current season, and there was a great chance to improve the team's prospects for 2007 and beyond.  We had already traded Eduardo Perez and were on the verge of trading Bob Wickman — deals that eventually produced two key players for the 2007 stretch run.

This season is different.  We have a slightly worse record based on a different combination of failures, but the division and Wild Card races have not run away form the club entirely.  Seven weeks of intermittent struggles left the team improbably in first place, up by 1.5 games, only to fall into a disastrous run of 2-10.  Now 5.5 games behind — but only 5.5 games behind — the Indians are in a division that appears mediocre enough to be won by any decent team, should one emerge.  But can the Indians be that team?  Should we reconfiguring for a drive, or reconfiguring for next season?

Will we decide to be the 2006 Indians again ... or the 2006 Mariners?

RYAN GARKO
$420K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

• PRO - Could be one part of a significant trade — scouts and managers love his grinder approach and mentality, and GM's will love his contract status, which has him still making the minimum in 2009.
  
• PRO - Struggling at 27, he's very unlikely to peak at a level much higher than his 2007 numbers.
  
• PRO - 1B is arguably emerging as a position of depth — Aubrey and Brown may be reasonable options for first base in 2009 and 2010, and they fit better into a C/1B rotation with Martinez and Shoppach.
  
• CON - Young, cheap players with reasonably good production are the lifeblood of a good roster.
  
• CON - Wouldn't clear significant payroll space, now or over the next couple of years.
• CON - Might be selling low on a player who's struggling.
  

ASDRUBAL CABRERA
$393K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

• PRO - Should be recognized as equivalent to an elite prospect, given his track record, and so should get a significant return.  Billy Beane no doubt still very interested.
  
• PRO - Would have greater value to a team without an established shortstop, or with a shortstop in his walk year.
  
• CON - Probable high-quality player and potential impact player over the next six seasons — and cheap.
  
• CON - Weak overall depth in the middle infield.
  
• CON - Best defensive player in the entire organization, with no close second in the majors or high minors, high-leverage asset for a team that may well feature the most extreme groundball rotation of all-time over 2009-2010.
  
• CON - Uncertain long-term viability of Peralta at shortstop.
  
• CON - Hard to imagine a viable trade scenario where trading him wouldn't be a huge mistake.

JHONNY PERALTA
$2.25M salary, signed through 2010, controlled through 2011

• PRO - Presents the best out of all our struggling hitters — shortstop on pace for 33 HR, barely 26, with postseason heroics, under reasonable contract for three more seasons.
  
• PRO - Would be considered a viable 3B option by many teams.
  
• PRO - Would allow team to reconfigure middle infield for better defense in light of groundball-heavy rotation.
• PRO - Likely will be seen by the Indians as merely a reasonable value towards the end of his contract.
• PRO - Not a fan favorite, probably the most significant asset the team could trade while minimizing backlash; local shills would eagerly endorse the deal.
  
• CON - Lack of overall middle-infield depth, likely would have to acquire at least one player (2B) if we traded him.
  
• CON - Unclear if Asdrubal Cabrera will hit well enough to stick in the majors in 2008 or 2009, even if moved to shortstop.
  
• CON - Production possibly can't be replaced at less than twice the price.
  
• CON - Barely 26, likely will bounce back to higher production, and may have a significantly higher peak left in him.
  
• CON - Clutch, generally has been immune from team-wide slumps or postseason pressure.
  
• CON - Would be the first case of trading someone considered to be a core player, unclear how that would affect future dealings.
  

CASEY BLAKE
$6.1M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2008

• PRO - Versatile player with veteran clubhouse rep, apparently considered a clutch performer in some circles, could be considered a significant trade piece in a tight market.
  
• PRO - Unlike in 2006, team has viable major-league options at each of his positions.
• PRO - Despite slump, may well be selling high.
  
• PRO - It's his walk-year anyway, and his $4M in remaining salary is high enough to want it gone, and yet low enough to attract most suitors — and low enough to consider eating it to get superior talent coming back in a deal (a tactic heavily employed by Shapiro in past deals).
  
• PRO - Using Marte at 3B would upgrade the infield defense.
  
• PRO - Would create opportunity to play glut of rookie corner position players — not just Marte, but also Choo, Francisco and Aubrey — and may have no downside in terms of overall production.
  
• CON - Uncertain whether Marte can hit well enough to stay in the majors without being a significant hole in the lineup.
• CON - Overall depth at 3B in particular is not good.
  

ANDY MARTE
$392K salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2012

• PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  
• PRO - Shapiro seems committed to Wedge, and Wedge seems incredibly un-committed to Marte — possibly facts not made public influencing the club's evaluation of the player.
  
• PRO - Some injury history, and despite outstanding track record as a young minor leaguer, has never looked "above" Triple-A pitching, not clear he can hit above replacement level in the majors.
  
• CON - Uncertain what his ceiling is, has never gotten significant opportunity as a major league hitter.
  
• CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
  
• CON - Would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
• CON - Would have to sign a free agent or trade for someone to play 3B in 2009 and possibly 2010, nobody major-league ready at that position.
• CON - Brandon Phillips.

JOSH BARFIELD
$416K/238K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2013

• PRO - If some team actually wants him, and is willing to assign any significant value to him in a trade package, it may well be the best offer we ever get for him, as many scouts are quite down him at this point based on his 2007 performance.
  
• PRO - Value to team roster would plummet to zero if the team acquired a 2B, which is a logical target to upgrade.  Barfield's bat doesn't work at any other position, and his glove doesn't work as as utility player. 
  
• PRO - Might still be seen as a viable major leaguer by some teams, particularly in the NL.
  
• CON - May well be selling low, as bat/glove may well return to league-average levels given another opportunity — would be jettisoning a player under inexpensive, low-risk, team control for the next 3-4 seasons.
  
• CON - Unlikely to get offered anything significant and would save almost no money.
• CON - Weak overall depth in the middle-infield, can't expect help from the minors until 2010 at the earliest.
  

MICHAEL AUBREY
$380/60K split salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2014

• PRO - Could we convince Billy Beane that he wants Aubrey as much as he wants Cabrera?
  
• PRO - Incredibly persistent injury history, scouts report significantly diminished skills from his heyday as a prospect, has never produced good numbers above Single-A.
• CON - Already has more HR than Victor.
• CON - Is a reasonable option if Garko is traded, fits well into platoon with Martinez and Shoppach.
• CON - Young, cheap, under control for many years, still one option left.

JAMEY CARROLL
$2M salary, signed through 2008, controlled through 2009

• PRO - Useful player, high-quality defender who could be attractive to a "fat" contender looking to shore up weak depth.
  
• PRO - Not a significant long-term piece.
• PRO - Would create opportunity to work Barfield into a two-position rotation with Cabrera and Peralta, which could be somewhat optimizing.
  
• CON - Weak overall middle-infield depth, would only make it harder to demote Cabrera, as probably is needed.
• CON - Possibly undervalued in trade market, probably as valuable to the Indians as to any team.
  
• CON - It's harder than it looks to find a quality bench/platoon middle infielder — see also Vazquez, Rouse — and Carroll has a perfect, club-friendly contract.
  
• CON - No more sweet baboo.

IN GENERAL:  There's a lot of reason to think about reconfiguring the entire infield.  Garko has been disappointing and never had a high ceiling.  Cabrera's bat doesn't work at 2B.  Peralta has provided high-value production but seems unpredictable, he's fringy at shortstop, and his bat/glove package may not play any better at another position.  As for the others, would anybody really care if they left?

It would seem to behoove the team to make a series of moves aimed at upgrading the infield defense.  Not that it's bad, it's fine overall, but the club likely will get over 200 starts from now through 2010 out of three extreme groundball pitchers, Westbrook, Carmona and Laffey — 260 starts if they're all healthy.  Our best defensive configuration right now is Aubrey, Carroll, Cabrera and Marte — which notably looks nothing like our Opening Day infield.  It also looks notably like our best offensive configuration, but that idea of "best" seems highly questionable at this point.  If the infield's hitting isn't as good as we thought, or even is merely highly uncertain, that too is a reason to start giving defensive issues more consideration.  (Amazingly, Wedge might actually be realizing this himself.)

That provides a rationale for moving even younger players like Garko or Peralta — let alone short-timers like Blake — but the truth is, without those guys, we don't really have the horses.  Shifting guys around still leaves us with projected mediocrity, and worse hitting than before.  We could move Garko with little risk or downside, but moving Blake leaves us a little exposed — and if we move both of them, we'd have to be thinking about getting someone who can play 3B off the bench, either with more glove than Blake or more bat than Carroll, for 2008 and beyond.  As for the middle infield, we can't really trade Peralta without acquiring a substantial second baseman — and if we do that, we might as well ship Barfield out, too.

Ironically, we have a number of players worth trading in the infield, but we're also in the market for infielders who can make a difference.  Infield defense sank the team in 2006, but it could make a huge positive over the next several seasons — and in this one.  There are opportunities here to make a series of moves that improve the team in three ways:  By bringing in a quality player, by replacing a weak player in the lineup, and by shifting one or two others into roles where they can be more valuable.

The series:  Visited the White Sox (loss, loss, loss) and hosted the Rangers (loss, win, loss).

The big story:  We sucked.  After climbing to the top of the division in the middle of last week, the Indians went 1-8.  The pitching snapped back to reality, while the hitters produced the same 19 runs this week that they had over the previous six games, only more poorly distributed.  In response, Wedge fumed, while Francisco and Aubrey added to the idea of slump by contagion, hitting far better in Cleveland than they ever have in Buffalo, seemingly immune to the rest of the team's two-month struggle.

The Indians are the worst-hitting team in the league this season, and they have also been, by far, the worst-hitting team in the majors in the month of May, more than a full run below the major-league average, and nearly a half-run per game worse than the worst team in the National League — again, that's the league where the pitchers are batting maybe three times a game.  The offense has occasionally broken out for a big game, but that has only obscured how bad the offense really has been — the average is 3.4  runs per game, but the median is a solid 3.0.  Week-long power outages have been the most notable feature of the 2008 season:

• April 3-9, 20 runs in seven games, 2.9 average, 2-5 record
• April 24-29, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
• May 1-8, 16 runs in six games, 2.7 average, 3-3 record
• May 12-25, 41 runs in 14 games, 2.9 average, 5-9 record

We actually have a better than expected record in those games, of course, because our starting pitching has been so outstanding over most of those weeks.  Incredibly, our Pythagorean record is actually 27-23 despite the awful hitting, but a half-dozen ninth-inning blowups have us at 23-27 instead.

The biggest tragedy here is the missed opportunities within the division, which directly impact our ability to make the playoffs and cannot be recouped.  The Indians have been 32 runs better than the Tigers but have only a two-game edge to show for it rather than six or seven — should both teams have any kind of bounce back after this point, those games will make a difference.

Worse yet, the Indians surrendered three straight games to the White Sox, who may well turn out to be the only other team who can over 85 wins in a deeply disappointing division.  Head-to-head records and BIP luck were the entire difference between these two clubs in 2005, when they ended the season with 99 and 93 wins respectively, and so far, history is repeating.

In other news:  Fausto Carmona went to the Disabled List with a hip injury and is expected to miss a full month — yet nobody panicked, as Jake Westbrook was completing a successful run of rehab starts in Akron even as Carmona's season was getting ruptured.  Westbrook was already scheduled to return on the exact day of Carmona's next would-be start, and even if he weren't, the Indians have other fine options waiting in Buffalo.

The Indians shuffled up the bullpen part of the roster pretty good, returning Joe Borowski to his old closer job late in the week and demoting Jensen Lewis, in the hopes that he can regain his old velocity in Buffalo.  The team put rarely used lefty Craig Breslow on waivers while claiming Oneli Perez, a talented but struggling young reliever, from the White Sox and sending him to Buffalo.  Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica were promoted from Buffalo to fill out the staff.

Post of the week:  AngG gets her Rick James on (or is it her Wayne Brady?) as part of a hilarious sequence of rants.  Other nominess: jhon (summing up Wedge disgust nicely),  mjschaefer (replying to zempf),  gte619n (replying to supermarioelia), drerikbrady (tremendous attention to detail), jakesinger777 (expanding on Cisco's Buckner moment).

Who fed it:  C.C. Sabathia and Ben Francisco led a very slim list of candidates for this week, both of them continuing strong runs.  Sabathia gave up three runs, all on solo-shots, over 14 innings, striking out 13 with three walks.  He has a 1.63 ERA (and RA) over his past seven starts, averaging 8 strikeouts and 1.6 walks in 7.2 innings.  Francisco pounded out five doubles and a home run while batting .320, and in playing every inning of the team's last 11 games, he's put up a stunning line of .395/.422/.721 — contributing more than 25% of the total bases and less than 8% of the outs.  Rafael Betancourt bounced back from three horrendous weeks (16.20 ERA) with three scoreless innings, all in the 8th, although he did allow an inherited run.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Francisco.

Who fed it breakdown:  Relief pitchers are hard to evaluate based on box scores, considering the incredibly blunt instruments used to assign earned runs.  Masa Kobayashi gave up an earned run, an unearned run and an inherited run this week but actually pitched pretty well.   In the first game, he relieved Laffey with no outs and a man on first, facing the top of the Chicago lineup.  He got a strikeout and a deep flyout, with a very speedy pinch-runner advancing to second base.   He then allowed a single on the ground through the gaping Blake/Peralta hole, scoring the inherited runner, and finally his only earned run of the week on the only legit line-drive hit.  In the second game, he faced the Rangers' 2-thru-5 hitters, getting a strikeout and two groundouts, allowing just a single on the ground to Josh Hamilton — a damned fine inning.  In the third game, he faced the Rangers' 3-thru-1 hitters, and he got three groundouts including a double-play, plus a strikeout and a flyout.  He allowed only a walk, a single on the ground and one line-drive single.  Had that one line-drive not followed the walk, or had there not been two outs, or had the ball not rolled under the right fielder's legs, we're looking at another fine shutout inning.  So while it may seem like Masa had a bad week, I'm not so sure.

Who ate it:  Where to even begin?  Blake, back to playing every inning, responded by slugging .143 — over the last two weeks, he's had one great game (2-4, 6 TB), four decent games (4-14, 0 TB) and eight awful ones (0-25, 0 TB).  Dellucci continued his atrocious month, using his 14 PA to generate just 3 total bases, against three double-plays, three strikeouts, and at least three awful throws from left field — his May OPS is just 444, and even worse, it's just 482 against lefties alone.  The Platoon Of Despair®, meanwhile, crushed any hopes we might have had for them last week, combining for .156/.282/.188, and yes, that's a 470 OPS, and yes, they are slugging a combined .361 for the season — thanks for asking!  Not to be outdone, catchers Martinez and Shoppach combined for an empty 3-for-23 with a 297 OPS.  Jensen Lewis gave up three runs on three walks, three singles, two doubles and one HBP, en route to Buffalo.  Jorge Julio stepped into two budding trainwrecks (from Byrd and Carmona) and made both of them much worse (more below).  Absolute Worst:  Julio.  Relative Worst:  Considering positional OPS differences, it's just too close to call among Martinez (267), Blake (360), Dellucci (445) and Hafner (459).

Who ate it breakdown:  Unlike Masa, Jorge Julio's bad week was even worse than it appeared — and with an 18.00 ERA, it appeared pretty bad.  In the first game, Julio relieved Byrd with men on first and second and one out.  The run expectancy here is 0.97, but Julio was facing the bottom third of Chicago's lineup and had the platoon edge on two of the three.  He gave up a deep flyball double to the righty Crede, scoring one inherited runner and advancing the other to third base with only one out.  He walked the lefty Swisher intentionally, then gave up a long sac-fly to righty Alexei Ramirez, who just-by-the-way is terrible, scoring that other inherited run, then got the leadoff hitter Cabrera to ground out to end the inning.  He started the next inning with strikeouts to Chicago's 2-3 hitters, then the home run to Jermaine Dye — Julio's first earned run allowed in five weeks — at which point he was pulled.  So against five right-handers in that game, he got a strikeout and a groundout but also three very hard-hit deep flies, each of which drove in one run.

Of course, that game was just a warmup for the major gas-can emptying he would do two nights later.  Relieving a struggling and injured Carmona in the 3rd, with men on first and third and no outs — but again, he's facing the bottom of the lineup, so he really should get out of this with minimal damage.  The sequence:  walk, walk, grand slam, line-drive double, line-drive double — so already, that's six runs, two inherited and four earned, and there's still no outs.  Julio finally gets a groundball, but it goes for an infield single, then a strikeout.  The inning ends with two more deep flies that get caught — but the adventure wasn't over!  Julio starts the next inning by allowing two more scorching line drives, but it's just his good fortune that the second one is hit straight at Peralta, who catches it and then doubles off the first guy — so that's two outs, bases empty, despite not one batter really beaten by Julio.  Next it's a walk, and then a double on a groundball to right, and at that point, he gets pulled with men on second and third, two outs.

So even though his ERA for the week was 18.00, it doesn't begin to describe how bad he really was.  Outside of those earned runs, he allowed all four inherited runners to score, while the two runners he left behind did not score.  And while he did get some legit outs, he also pitched into some very good luck, and he totally failed to keep the ball in the infield, even with the platoon edge against the other team's worst hitters.  He was, all things considered, about as bad as a pitcher can possibly be while getting nine outs — charged with just 6 ER, he pitched badly enough to allow 12.

via www.fangraphs.com

The word of the day is...

listless adj. Having or showing little or no interest in anything; languid; spiritless; indifferent

Related forms: listlessly, listlessness

[Origin: 1400-50, late Middle English]

Examples:

1. The Indians' offense was listless; their only run of the game came on the most listless of scoring plays, the ground out.

2. C.C. Sabathia was not listless, striking out eight White Sox in seven innings of work.

3. Andy Marte sat listlessly in the dugout, knowing that even with the entire lineup trapped in a vortex of suck, he wouldn't get a chance to play.

The series:  Hosted the Athletics (win, win, win) and visited the Reds (loss, loss, loss).  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  The Indians rode an absurd run of exceptional pitching to the division lead, devastating the A's to cap off an 8-2 run, only then to get swept by the not-really-even-kind-of-good Reds.  How many weeks see a team move from 1.5 behind one team, to 1.5 ahead of everybody, to 1.5 behind a different team?

The big story:  The team's most senior and best pedigreed relievers continued to fail in the 9th inning, raising the question, why are we picking our closers this way, anyway?  A week ago, Betancourt followed nine innings of shutout pitching from Cliff Lee with a three-run, game-losing 10th against Toronto.  A few days later, he appeared ready to repeat the performance against Oakland, loading the bases while attempting to close the door on a three-run victory.  Incredibly, Wedge then pulled his closer — something he refrained from doing in well over a dozen similar situations with Joe Borowski on the mound — in favor of Kobayashi, who had "backed into" his first career save two nights earlier.  Kobayashi loosed a run-scoring wild pitch but slammed the door with two strikeouts — and the controversy was on.  Wedge said several guys might share the closer role until Borowski returns.  Kobayashi was inserted into the next save situation a few nights later and promptly blew the game — bloop single to left, hit-by-pitch, and a three-run walkoff homer to Adam Dunn, who should have been wearing a giant cape with the words "Don't Give This Guy Anything Good To Hit" emblazoned on the back.

Many stupid things have already been written about this, and many more will be written in the coming weeks.  We've already heard the brainless drumbeat starting against closer-by-committee, and no doubt much more will follow.  You will hear that Bill James invented closer-by-committee (not true) and thinks it's a great idea (not true), that the Red Sox tried closer-by-committee a few years back (true) at James' urging (not true), and that that Red Sox bullpen failed (true) because closer-by-committee is such a terrible idea (not true, it was because they didn't have any good relievers).

Mind you, I don't really care for closer-by-committee much myself, but I like dumb, superstitious baseball commentary even less, and for some reason, the Holy Role Of The Closer seems to bring out the village idiots like little else.  As you suffer through it, try to hold firm these simple facts:

• Betancourt has not been steady all season.  When Borowski went on the DL, Betancourt had given up two home runs in his last four games.  In fact, Betancourt's best stretch of the season came in the two weeks immediately following his being annointed the closer — allowing just one single (and that was the only line drive) and one walk over four games.
• Kobayashi, despite a very impressive career in Japan, is an older pitcher who has never established any level of performance, good or bad, in the U.S.  And similar to  Betancourt, he had given up two home runs in the five games preceding his first career Save in the U.S.

So there's no reason to think any of this has anything to do with the 9th inning being "different."  We've got two veteran relievers struggling, getting inconsistent results in any inning — but we also have a number of younger relievers thriving within limited opportunities.   And for whatever it's worth, Betancourt looks to have been extremely unlucky on balls in play (.380 BABIP, compared with .287 career and .240 last season) and is still not giving up any walks (only two unintentional in 72 PA).

In other news:  The starters ended a historic run of more than 44 scoreless innings when Aaron Laffey threw a ball into right field while attempting to field a lame squib in front of the mound — even that it was only an unearned run — leading to the curious ESPN headline, "Indians starter gives up run".  The streak spanned seven days in seven games, and over that span, the Indians entire pitching staff gave up just six runs — aside from Betancourt, only two runs over 62.2 IP, one unearned, with nine pitchers combining for an insane ERA of 0.14.  Over that span, Sabathia and Laffey gave up two runs in 30 innings, and Carmona and Lee pitched 18 scoreless innings in a single day.  Byrd contributed another 7+ scoreless innings, and four relievers contributed six scoreless appearances as well.

Cliff Lee ended his own historic run with his first poor start of the season, allowing more runs in that one start (5) than in his first seven combined (4) and nearly as many extra bases.  Lee's historically good launch to the season got heavy press coverage, and he still leads the AL by a significant margin in both ERA and FIP.

The offense continued to struggle to stop continuing to struggle, but the problem shifted as some hitters showed some at least signs of recovering (Hafner, Garko), others showed at least an up-and-down tendency (Peralta, Dellucci), while still others displayed an increasingly chornic-looking awfulness (Cabrera, Gutierrez).  Jason Tyner was ditched out of a need to summon Jeremy Sowers for a spot start.  Sowers was demoted and replaced the next day by Michael Aubrey, a highly touted prospect around 2004 who has been chronically injured ever since.  Aubrey made contact in every plate appearance and sent his first major league hit over the Cincinnati fence, and to nobody's particular surprise got more playing time than Andy Marte.

Post of the week:  Should we talk about it?

Who fed it:  Despite disappointing results, many Indians had a great week, none moreso than Ben Francisco, who piled up five singles, three doubles and a home run in just 18 at-bats, good for a 1359 OPS.  Sabathia delivered the club's best start of the week and arguably the whole season, a complete-game shutout in which he faced 32 batters, only two of whom even reached second base, in both cases with two outs.  Carmona, Byrd and Laffey each contributed a seven-inning gem, combining to allow only one run, one walk, one HBP and one extra-base hit (a double).  Rafael Perez added four more scoreless appearances and hasn't allowed a run in more than three weeks, spanning 11 games.  Jorge Julio continued his march on the Circle of Trust, retiring all four batters he faced, two on strikeouts; he's now retired 21 of his last 25 batters, allowing just two singles and two walks.  Peralta chose feast over famine with a 1038 OPS, including two doubles and two home runs.  Jason Tyner exceeded our wildest expectations, getting released before he could make our wretched offense any worse.  Absolute Best:  Francisco.  Relative Best:  Tyner.

Who fed it breakdown:  What if Travis Hafner rebuilt his swing and nobody noticed?  With half the week's games in the NL, Hafner had a limited role but still produced a home run and three walks — and in fact, he has a very healthy .318/.483/.545 — that's 1028 — over his ten games, which included seven starts and three pinch-hitting shots.  It's far too soon to announce that he's back, or even to have any real optimism, but considering his OPS was well under 600 for a month of games before that, it's at least an encouraging sign.  Garko, meanwhile, slugged 700 this week with two doubles and two home runs but drew no walks, and he's drawn only two walks in 75 PA over the past four weeks.

Who ate it:  Gutierrez is playing himself out of a job completely, or at least into a significantly reduced role, and this week, he failed to reach base even once in ten trips to the plate, which included five strikeouts and a GIDP.  His OPS for May is 328, and it's just 545 for April and May combined (that is, the whole season except for his heroic Opening Day act on March 31).  Dellucci was also terrible this week, managing just a single in 16 at-bats; he's also having a terrible May (444 OPS) but at least had a good April (871).  Cabrera managed just two singles in 17 at-bats (285 OPS) and is carrying a 492 OPS all the way back to April 6.   Betancourt retired just one batter out of four and ominously did not appear in any other game.  Absolute Worst:  Dellucci.  Relative Worst:  Gutierrez.

Who ate it breakdown:  As noted above, the weakness of our offensive attack was nowhere near as widespread this week as it was at the start of the month — the team hit just .232 and slugged .423, but if you exclude AbaCab, Gutierrez and Dellucci, the other 11 position players hit .278 and slugged .523 — more than respectable.  This is not to prescribe just leaving those three out of the lineup, as this is just a tiny slice of the season.  But it is nice to know that based on this past week's numbers at least, it is possible for us to field a lineup that can produce good numbers.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will be posted later.

via www.fangraphs.com

CC Sabathia obviously was embarrassed by actually giving up a run in his last start. So tonight he pitched the best outing of an Indians starter in the past four days (which is saying something), shutting out the Athletics on five hits and striking out 11. And with that shutout, all five starters in the Cleveland rotation have pitched at least seven shutout innings in their last starts, an amazing feat. The Indians as a team now have seven (!) shutouts. Cleveland starters have now gone 43.1 innings without allowing a run. The run prevention has been such that despite an offense last in the league in batting average and slugging, they could wake up tomorrow the leaders of the AL Central.

The offense tonight didn't need to do much, but could have done a whole lot more. Grady Sizemore lead off the game with a home run, and Ryan Garko added a homer in the fourth. They could have ended all doubt in the fifth, when Joe Blanton loaded the bases with nobody out with two walks after a Ben Francisco double, but Jhonny Peralta swung weakly at a pitch on the outside corner and topped a grounder right back to Blanton, who started a 1-2-3 double play, That turnabout seemed to rejuvenate Blanton, who was probably one hit from hitting the showers. Blanton went on to pitch through the seventh.

The series:  Visited the Yankees (win, win, loss) and hosted the Blue Jays (win, win, win, loss).

The big story:  The team put together a strong week behind a dominant rotation, but the daily lineups wore the strange hue of a series of odd decisions — moves that occasionally excited but more often puzzled, or even smelt of desperation.

Newly promoted Ben Francisco was used in all seven games, including five starts, performing similarly to (and not demonstrably better than) the man he replaced, who was traded to Pittsburgh for (we can guess) something in between a bag of balls and a case of bats.  Slight-hitting Jason Tyner was also promoted, adding to our already overstocked cupboard of weak-hitting outfielders, or perhaps more accurately subtracting by addition.  Even more strange than Tyner's promotion was his being given a start immediately upon his arrival.  We have four better-hitting outfielders — five if you count Blake — most of whom are also good or great defenders, so what was the point of this?

There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to it, unless it was to send the other players a message, something along the lines of:  "You guys suck so bad, we might as well be playing Jason freakin' Tyner.  That's right, you guys, it's that bad.  Our hitting is as pathetic as the goddam Twins now."

And then there's Andy Marte, long buried at the end of the bench, who shockingly got three starts this week — and yet already has fewer at-bats this season (22) than Ben Francisco (25), who has been on the roster only 11 days compared to Marte's 43.  Some guys just have to play, apparently, and some guys don't.  (See full screed.)  It's a good thing we don't have to understand these decisions, because who could?

In other news:  Cliff Lee ascended to a new level of other-worldly Chuck Norrissitude, leading a rotation that allowed just nine runs in seven starts, including five games allowing one run or zero.  Five!   Five starts allowing one run or zero!  This week alone!  Since April 17, Indians starters have allowed just 35 runs in 23 games, good for a 2.07 ERA.  Sabathia even managed to climb out of the ERA cellar, having needed four excellent starts to get his ERA down to 6.55 — still awful, but good enough to surrender the "lead" to Nate Robertson at 6.64, of our alleged rivals the Detroit Tigers.  (Happily, the bottom five also includes two other Tigers, Justin Verlander at 6.43 and Kenny Rogers at 5.82.)

Asdrubal Cabrera delivered a stunning series of defensive gems in a two-game stint at shortstop, but he made history when he returned to second base last night, turning just the 14th unassisted triple-play in the history of major league baseball.  Rather than save the ball for himself or for the Hall of Fame, AbaCab casually flipped the ball to some fans sitting behind the Indians dugout as he jogged in from the field — just another routine play, I guess.

Post of the week:  Okay, maybe let's start using that recommend-until-it's-green thingy.  And no, I'm not eligible, thank you.

Who fed it: Cliff Lee pitched 16 scoreless innings, starting a new streak perhaps to rival his previous 27-inning tear.  Carmona and Laffey provided another 16 scoreless innings, Carmona's in a complete game shutout, the quartet of Perez-Lewis-Julio- Breslow contributed eight more, and man, that is just a lot of scoreless innings.  Julio has been pounding on the door of the Circle of Trust, having retired 22 batters since the last time he allowed a run (April 16) while allowing just two singles and two walks.  Breslow meanwhile was fighting just to have his existence recognized, appearing in just his second game in the past four weeks.  Casey Blake had the best offensive line of the week with a 912 OPS, though that was more of a reflection on the team's hitting than anything else.  Sizemore hit another two home runs, matching his pair from last week, and has a 1063 OPS over his last dozen games.  And, well, that's about it for the hitters.  How did we ever score 12 runs in that one game?  Absolute Best:  Lee.  Relative Best:  Lee.

Who ate it:  Garko was the worst-hitting starter this week by far, with just two singles, a double and the obligatory HBP to show for 19 trips to the plate.  He bears an atrocious .140/.219/.175 line over his last 16 games, with as many strikeouts, double-plays and sac-flys (14) as times on base (also 14).  I can't tell if we're supposed to consider Francisco a bench guy or not, but if we assume that he isn't one, then the bench (Carroll, Shoppach, Marte and Tyner) was unbelievably awful this week — 4 for 43 awful, .093/.152/.093 awful — often frustrating Wedge's attempts to shuffle the lineup and give extra days off to his  struggling sluggers, i.e., half the roster.  You know who else sucks?  Rafael Betancourt, whose ERA is something around 9 since being anointed the closer, I can't even stand to look it up.  Absolute Worst:  Garko.  Relative Worst:  Betancourt.

The other guys. false alarms and open questions:   Will return next week; I kind of got sidetracked by the whole Marte thing.